The trough is linked to a broad low which moves off the South Coast o/night Sun into Mon and does aim up some useful swell generating winds for NETas.
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Gales to severe gales from the S through SE will generate another peak in size later today and through tomorrow from the secondary low slingshotting around the primary centre, well positioned in the Tasmanian swell window. Winds from the E-E/NE are also still active in the swell window.
Winds on the south-east to north-east flanks of the low will be gale force E to E/NE infeeds, extending out into the Tasman and Southern Coral Sea, aimed at Central/Southern NSW and down to Tasmania.
Through Mon both the coastal and Coral Sea troughs deepen with a strong and broad E/NE-NE infeed into a developing surface low (possibly some variant of ECL) late Mon o/night into Tues.
In the eastern swell window a massive high east of New Zealand and tropical depression in Tongan longitudes is reaching peak intensity and expected to send some meaningful E’ly groundswell towards the eastern seaboard and as far south as Tasmania, making landfall early next week.
Despite the travel distance to Tasmania, we should see some quality long range E/NE swell from this source, with some size from the south this week as the front and low traverse the Tasman.
N’lies freshen Tues as the large low/front approaches, tending NW through the a’noon, even W/NW by close of play.
The broad SE’ly pattern which sets up in the Coral Sea gets disrupted next week by cold fronts whihc generate surf for NETas but longer term looks to set up again as we move to the end of the month.
From mid next week we should see action return to the south as fronts push into the Tasman.
Failing that we may see some small NE windswell next week from the high as it sets up a NE flow in the Tasmanian swell window.