Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Sizey S Thurs, easing into Fri with winds from the W-NW
• Small S groundswells Sat/Sun with offshore winds
• Long range E/NE swell offers inconsistent sets from Mon, peakingTues/Wed next week with W’ly winds
• Possible low in the Tasman next week, may supply NETas with quality E-E/SE swells later next week- low confidence so check back Fri

Recap

Fun sized NE windswell yesterday to 2-3ft has maintained size or even increased into today with fresh W/NW-W winds as a front passes over the state and a low tracks NE from below the Island. S swells are building to 4-5ft this a’noon.

This week and next (Jun 25 - July 4)

Associated with todays cold front is a low currently just to the SE of Tasmania and expected to track NE into the Tasman. Gale force W’ly winds are already being observed through Bass Strait with those winds expected to tend SW and propagate northwards through the day. That proximate fetch of SW-S/SW winds will be the main swell source in the short term. There’s also a much deeper fetch of SW gales connected to a polar low which is transiting the far southern reaches of the Tasman which will supply reinforcing S’ly groundswell. In the eastern swell window a massive high east of New Zealand and tropical depression in Tongan longitudes is reaching peak intensity and expected to send some meaningful E’ly groundswell towards the eastern seaboard amd as far south as Tasmania, making landfall early next week. More frontal activity through the lower Tasman keeps the southern swell window active medium term while the Tasman Sea now looks like showing enhanced storminess with major models in broad agreement over a large, complex surface low developing and good odds for a prolonged M swell event. 

In the short run we’ll see winds remain fresh and gusty W-SW, easing a notch through the a’noon. Plenty of S swell to 3-5ft, easing through the day as the low moves away.

By Fri we’ll see winds from the SW shift back W-W/NW as high pressure moves to the north of the state. A blend of mid period and longer period S swell offers up 2-3ft surf at S exposed breaks, easing through the day.

Into the weekend and winds look to be offshore for most of it, just tending light S’ly on Sun a’noon.

Only small S swells are expected with mid period and long period wrap offering up inconsistent 2ft sets Sat, similar or just a smidgin smaller on Sun. 

Long range E/NE swells start to filter down to Tasmania early next week. Only small to start on Mon but by close of play we should see some inconsistent 2-3ft sets, persisting Tues and easing Wed. 

Winds look OK this far out with a light SW-W flow as high pressure moves north of the state.

There is a dynamic situation unfolding next week with low pressure expected to form off the NSW Coast. Initial gales are located too far north for Tas (aimed at NSW) but we could see some quality E to E/SE swell later in the week depending on how the low evolves.

We’ll flag it as a heads up for now and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then!