Rolling Forecast: WSL Finals, Fiji
WSL Finals, Fiji
August 27th - September 4th
Forecast Monday 23/08/25:
On Friday’s forecast we noted there was three-way agreement between the global models: GFS, EC, and ACCESS for a decent swell to strike Fiji on Tuesday the 2nd September.
Yet any forecast twelve days out needs to be treated with caution as small atmospheric changes are multiplied across the forecast period. The larger the forecast period = the larger the error.
So it’s no surprises to see EC and ACCESS have wavered, both slowing the system down and hinting at a later peak, while GFS maintains the same forecast.
None of this is cause for concern, as, when it comes to Southern Ocean storm activity, GFS is the more reliable forecast model. It does, however, confirm the need for circumspection and flexibility in long range forecasting, so for now we’ll keep the dates free. Nothing is locked in.
Taking the wider view, the frontal progression that sparks the swell is still due to move underneath Australia through the week, clipping the south-east - Tassie and Victoria - early weekend. So the foundations are still in place
Also, FWIW the Long Wave Trough is predicted to move into a position where any Southern Ocean storm will move up the Tasman pipe towards Fiji.
Considering today’s curve ball from a contest organiser's POV: While the models are currently not locked onto a single date, they’re all pointing towards a swell within the contest waiting period.
See you Wednesday.
Forecast Friday 22/08/25
Wednesday’s forecast ended with reasons to doubt the swell due to hit Fiji late on Monday 1st.
In the 48 hrs since then we’ve had reasons to grow our confidence. The most obvious is that the two major global models - GFS and ECMWF - are now moving in lockstep, projecting a similar-sized swell to move up the Tasman pipe towards Fiji.
FWIW, the Australian model - ACCESS - is also forecasting a similar system.
The storm that creates the swell is forecast by all three models to form next Friday, so seven days from now, starting as a broad low positioned underneath Australia, meridional (north/south) in structure, sending swell to South Oz, Vicco, and Tassie, as the system moves east and tightens into a closed centre.
From early Saturday to midday Sunday a forecast wind field should extend from south of Tasmania up the Tasman Sea to a latitude equal to the NSW Mid North Coast, creating a mix of period and size in the swell heading towards Fiji.
First forming south of Tasmania late Friday, the swell consolidates through Saturday
The bulk of it forms in Cloudbreak’s middle-ground swell window, and winds will top out at gale force, though they’ll remain there for 24-36 hours.
GFS has it peaking at 8ft+. Though it’s worth considering the synoptic forecast for EC and ACCESS suggests slightly smaller surf.
We’ll massage the expected size over the coming week.
In any case, what they don’t suggest is an aerial shoot out.
A further reason to have confidence is a follow up swell also moving up the Tasman, a good sign the Long Wave Trough is directing these systems.
Though the swell is forecast to strike on Monday 1st, Tuesday is its forecast peak, meaning that’s the likeliest day to run - Day 7 out of a 10 day waiting period.
With a swell moving into the cross-hairs we’ll shortly begin sharpening up the secondary consideration: wind.
Despite being relatively late in the season, the trade-wind belt has remained robust through Fiji. On Monday we’ll take a closer look at the swell and the wind.
See you then.
Forecast Wednesday 20/08/25:
Since Monday’s forecast a few things have changed in the waiting period. There’s been no fundamental shift as on the whole it’s not a great outlook for Fiji. But then again, Finals Day is just that - one day.
With the Southern Ocean firing its energy at targets further east, all the WSL needs is one stray volley to deviate and head up the Tasman Sea towards Fiji. Eight hours of wayward energy will do it.
The pre-comp swells mentioned on Monday are both on track to arrive, the first late Thursday (6ft+) and the second late Saturday (4-6ft). There’ll then be a slow taper over Sunday and Monday until the forecast flatlines for seven straight days - six of those being in the waiting period.
The cause of this is a large high pressure system that moves across the southern Tasman and New Zealand, angling storm systems to the south so the swell they produce heads away from the tropics - see next image.
Note swell under Australia heading towards the ice shelf while swell east of New Zealand heads across the South Pacific.
When the high moves east, a vigorous low pressure system is forecast to form off the NSW East Coast with a ridge feeding into a trough line in the Tasman.
What does that mean..?
Good news for East Coast surfers - including Tassie East Coast - but not so the last remaining WSL surfers waiting in Fiji, as, once again, the energy in the Tasman will be directed away from them and towards Australia - see next image.
The swell heads the wrong way down the Tasman pipe - though East Coast surfers will benefit.
As is often the case, the Tasman Low will precede a vigorous frontal progression, which is the kind of talk Cloudbreak diehards like.
The first phase will see a low deepen over south-east Australia dragging polar air towards the mainland - possibly good news for the snow fields. However, as the system breaches the East Coast the westerly component will again see the swell angled away from Fiji.
Fortunately it’s a complex and multi-pronged system, and the elongations that drag cool air from far southern latitudes will also establish a well-aimed fetch up the Tasman. It’s not overly strong nor long-lasting, which’ll put a ceiling on size, but it forms right in Cloudbreak’s sweet spot.
Note the wind field south of Tasmania angled north-east towards Fiji.
At present, the swell is forecast to hit late on Monday 1st, building to a peak late on Tuesday 2nd, however, there are many contingencies attached to this one.
It’s at the very end of the forecast period so accuracy is questionable, and it forms on the back of a dynamic system. There’s a lot of weather between now and then, and small adjustments will have big bearings on the outcome.
Nevertheless in the absence of any other swell, this is the one we’ll be watching.
See you all on Friday.
Forecast Monday 18/08/25:
Over the last fortnight, Fiji has gone through a quiet spell with few waves of note on the south-west facing reefs. It's not for a lack of action in the Southern Ocean - Victoria and Tahiti, for instance, have been getting bombarded by Southern Ocean storms - but it's got everything to do with alignment.
Cloudbreak only has one real swell window and it opens up to the south-west, across the Coral Sea, Tasman Sea, and beyond that the Southern Ocean. Any storm that's going to create swell will have to be angling up the Tasman towards Fiji.
The current set up has Southern Ocean storms pushing swells north-east towards South Australia and Victoria, while the storms in Fiji's swell window have been pushing swell south-east towards the ice shelf - see the next image for an example.
Keen weather watchers would understand this as a classic Long Wave Trough scenario - click here for an explanation.
What this means is that the lead up to Finals Day will see few warm up waves on the reefs. There are, however, some exceptions.
Tomorrow a low centred near NZ's southern tip will deepen as it moves up the west coast, creating a south-southwest swell of moderate period. This will hit late on the 21st in the 6-8ft range.
That swell will be followed by a longer period swell off the storm shown in the image above. It's poorly aligned for Cloudbreak yet vigorous enough to push sideband energy up the Tasman where it'll deliver inconsistent 6ft waves hitting late on the 23rd.
Following that, the reefs will go quiet.
A series of fronts will pass across southern Australia, yet as they approach the Tasman they're all forecast to fall away, fading in strength and sending any available swell south-east, away from the tropics.
So quiet will Fiji be during this period that on the 27th - the first day of the waiting period - the predominant swell is forecast to be south-east. A short period trade-swell kicked up by the south-east trade-winds.
The first four days of the waiting period - from Wednesday 27th to Saturday 30th - will see very small waves. Only small, inconsistent long period energy will be able to escape the tractor beam that's pulling it away from Cloudbreak.
The back half of the waiting period is still too far out to have much trust in the forecast though there are hints of southerly energy developing in the Tasman. At this stage it looks slightly disjointed though we'll keep an eye on any changes.
See you all on Wednesday.
Comments
crikey! might have to go mobile to Trestles…
haha twisted sense of humour
For the finals I think the WSL could be more flexible. Like, just hire a few boats for the surfers, judges and film crew, then pounce when the surf is pumping there...which looks like being sometime after the official waiting period.
And what about all the people who've booked trips then?
Or the locals who've waited weeks, months, for a decent CB day?
Unfortunately the Wozzle has to book in like everyone else.
Fair enough Stu. But it's only a one day comp. I'd be more that happy if I booked and had to sacrifice a day of surf, while getting to see up close the world titles being decided in perfect, big challenging waves, no worries. A day to witness, remember and talk story about for the rest of my life. But maybe that's just me. Cheers.
the solution is so obvious..
World Surf Luxurycruise..
neverending Love Boat devoted to surf..
netflix onboard, 7 series minimum..
give a few crowdfunded births to the odd jai glindeman or matahi drollet that they can pop in and out of when they wish.. a creche and family rooms for surfers with families.. raffle a few below-deck cabins, the odd influencer.. (let the rockstars like JJF fly in and out if they're too cool for the boat.)
live streamed DJ sets with Steph and Ramzi (late night chill zone with Caity). Galley cooking show with the Pupos. Scrapbooking with Tyler, Sunday morning singalongs with house band Erin and the Brazillians..
https://shipselector.com/offers/sale/passenger-vessel/cruise-vessel
https://au.yachtworld.com/boats-for-sale/type-power/class-power-cruise-s...
https://www.qpsships.com/
Hilarious Base6. But there's some merit somewhere in all of that.
buyer's market in large cruise ships and the like.
employer's market too, for large passenger ship staff.
give extra points to QS surfers who swab the decks.
Kaipo's Conga line every evening
ha, dude likes to unwind, after working all day in his televised Bailey pop-up repair shop
He and Strider could've easily ended up running poolside activities if they hadn't nailed spots on the commentary roster
Perfect idea. They could model it on Wes Andersons's 'The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou.' Wozzle surfers have matching uniforms (including matching red woollen beanies) and get their own Glock, but the QS surfers (interns) have to work for nothing scrubbing the deck and doing repairs. They only get one Glock between them. JJF could arrive in a yellow submarine.
I like the cut of your jib, cowboy.
(ermm.. and always get back on the horse, sailor).
The Love Boooatt ...soon will be making another run!
The Loouve Boat ...promises something for everyone!
As crazy as that sounds, there are only a total of 10 surfers, then include judges, commentary and media staff.
Surely a few boats floating around somewhere like the Mentawaii's in a 10 day surf trip setting could score 1 day somewhere to wrap it up.
Other paying punters on other boats may be not so happy, but there are enough breaks to go around, once the word went out, other boats would either go watch or go surf somewhere else.
Personally, I could put a few hours aside on a trip to watch the worlds best battle.
fk em, while insane it's an insane wave choosing this location is fraught with dangers.
It would be the ultimately ironic end to the final 5 if CB were to have smaller waves than Trestles...
Went past Cloudy once on a fishing charter out of Denarau. It was offshore and absolutely pristine four feet, but empty. I asked our Fijian skipper what was up, and he replied simply, "Flat". Would have been the best day of my life surfing that "Flat" wave to myself
First Time I went to Fiji you couldn't surf CB, at all.
Went past on the way to Namotu and it was 10-12ft and flawless, no-one out.
Massive, big gaping tubes steamrolling down the reef.
Whoa, that must have been quite a sight Steve! Was that when only Tavarua guests could surf Cloudy?
My first time was something similar except I'd sold a kidney to stay at Tava.
Morning session was 6-8', long period with light trades. Only one boat out with 3 of us trading sets.
Lunch hits and everyone else heads back. By now its 8'-10' and sheet glass.
I stay, it's just me and the boatman as the swell muscles up to 10'-12' with some outrageously big sets. I was on an AB 7'2" 6 channel and couldn't get to/into the big ones.
Was best surf of my life until a light northerly blew up and put an end to my ability to get into them.
Later that afternoon the wind died and restaurants was 6'+ and flawless.
Been chasing a repeat ever since. I'm aware I prostituted myself by paying outlandish rates to stay at Tava for the week, but it's still the best money I've ever spent.
haha classic tale.
Sounds epic!
Wow.
As your stereotypical goofy footer who loves pumping lefts that sounds like one of the great days of life.
Can I be rude and ask how much you paid for that once in a lifetime pleasure Nolan?
I’m already having the debate in my head of what I’d pay for that experience ha ha
Actually wasn't that outrageous.
I was there with my wife and 3 young kids. We stayed a week at another island (Mana) and a week at Tava. About $25k from memory in 2009 dollars.
Have stayed at Tava post decree, still worth it when you get swell.
Though . . . I am still suffering PTSD after having surfed all day and my lovely, patient wife reasonably wants some couple time on the restaurants deck when they bring out canapes and drinks at 5pm. As the sun sets over restaurants you could be forgiven for thinking it's a perfect end to a perfect day . . . except the obsessive nature is on a full tear and all I can do is fret as perfect barrels spin down the reef unridden.
Thanks mate.
A session you’ll remember forever.
Ha ha yes I can only imagine the conflicting thoughts running through your head as you’re sipping on a mojito watching the waves.
What a magical place eh.
Restaurants seems to fly under the radar over the years. Rarely see or hear much about it, but I have some extremely fond memories of uncrowded sessions there whilst its big brother has garnered all the attention.
Restaurants is absolutely world class - perfect shape and pace, hardly ever sections. More 'perfect' than CB that's for sure. Heavy in its own right once its 4'-6'+ and the tide drops.
If it flies under radar (it gets pretty crowded on small days nowadays), it's because it's even more fickle than CB and unless swell is absolutely huge or you're not staying at Tava/Namotu when it's on then you typically have to choose between CB or Restaurants which means there's fewer people who've had the experience of surfing it at full flight.
The angle of the swell affects it heaps as well. The more the west the better.
And shorter period.
For sure didn't realise it made that much difference so many variable's in Vic there are only two: swell size and wind.
Nice one @ nolan
Spent 5 years on and off with a couple of the island freighters, change over day you could get CB with very few out. Or at times by yourself
There are sooo many breaks off the remote islands but need all the right things to line up … very lucky to surf a few and almost always alone ..John Cal and his mates would wet themselves
I wouldn’t say Victoria has been getting “bombarded by swells” in recent times, mostly regular size and consistency. If anything it’s been a fair bit of slow to very small window which has opened up opportunity for the open beaches with is rare for this time of year. In reality those open beachies are always being bombarded by swell but that’s not what you’d be referring to.
Those southern ocean swells tracking south east has been perfect for Victoria though, opening up options at the open spots as the wind is pulled offshore with the lows tracking away as the swell fades with it.
Classic surf coast fronts .
Was thinking the same thing.
I will cry if it becomes a air fest .
Low tide rotes over shish kabobs
italo pumping for 100m, legs agape. Flat spin, double arm claim. I’m getting depressed thinking about it.
Shaper... you want more tail lift as a lightweight surfing Cloudbreak ....if its w'small'ltd.
2-4ft surf blowtails won finals last year for USA & Canada.
Thanks for the greatest surf forecasting team. More waves & rain in Oz than Fiji in August...
Surf sponsors... have your surfers & camera's rolling on the 22nd Aug...eg. Kongs Island?
That size is perfect for me, much bigger I am a spectator too much risk on my backhand. The beatings you cop and the paddle over the reef and back around and legendary. They make it look easy.
Looks like interesting developments just outside this forecast range, maybe a coupla days later. Definitely gonna be something for the comp, fingers crossed it's something extra.
what the time difference between a swell hitting bells then CB?
Depending on period, about 3 days. Closer to 4 if period is lowish (circa 15s).
i spy a bump out there haha obv more complex than that but something to geek out on
The pros all shared the spoils this season and earnings look solid on paper.
Enough to fly the family into Fiji and accommodate them for 2 weeks? Would make a serious dint in the bottom line
Quintessential... post Kelly?
Isn't it 'Florence'?
Flo'rinse?
meanwhile....theres a bit a bump on bone dry reef
great surf footage and editing by WSLtd
love the cherry on top...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-2...
"Cloudbreak only has one real swell window and it opens up to the south-west, across the Coral Sea, Tasman Sea, and beyond that the Southern Ocean. Any storm that's going to create swell will have to be angling up the Tasman towards Fiji."
Don't forget the Indian Ocean swell window off South Africa!
https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2016/11/08/the-secret-li...
Sounds like a perfect forecast for Filipe.
He'll be kicking himself...
wsl have been jagging it this year with lowballed surf predictions so hopefully can jag it one last time
Latest EC runs looking more hopeful.
Just noticed the same FR. Fingers crossed.
C'mon EC!
EC has held that position for a good CB swell on the 2nd/3rd for the last few days which is promising.
GFS is somewhat aligned (if less promising, though still OK)
WSL are canny buggers if it comes off given what its been.
Honestly, I've been dubious about the Sept time for the final 5.
Honestly feel you need a roving month in the pacific final 5 .
Best spot for waves wins.
That Sunday/Monday (31st/1st) swell is starting to look more and more promising. Hope those charts hold. Could be some size and consistency.
Is that the swell arrival time or generation date?
I'm not looking at charts outside of the standard WZ (GFS) app 7-dayer and I'm not vibing it.
There is snow forecast for mid-late next week which is a good indicator for a front pushing into Tasman but there isn't any real pulse hitting CB til 3/9 on the automated model just now.
It's getting tight.
That's based off Thurs-saturdays synoptics so yeah guessing swell arrival will be Saturday peaking through Sunday/Monday. If that all holds true though. ha
If that map was actually todays synoptic i'd be frothing for the finals day in a coupla days time!
See how it plays out though hey. I reckon they'll get something. Alot of energy in that system that's been carried all the way from beyond Africa so it'll do something. We're just on the verge of copping it here in the next few hours so will put my ear to the wind and listen if it whispers Thundercloud!! :-P
latest model runs in surfline lotus forecast completely backed off the idea of a pulse first few days of sept..crikey...hoping that the euro holds given ensembles look good for a big snow system across Aus / NZ end of next week.
Looks to me both models are showing what we need to see 28th 29th in the Tasman. Can we be confident now or still too far out?
Trade wind belt looking stiff when it arrives.
From what I'm seeing, both models (EC & GFS) aren't aligned. Praying for EC to come off and we should hopefully see Tuesday as comp day. Still a long way out though.
Craig will have an update today?
Yep, new forecast today.
Lots of short-lived mirages but taken in its entirety - across the various models and time-stamps - the energy is still disjointed and running at cross-purposes.
Agree.
To channel SN's forecast notes: "keep expectations low and check back in on Monday"
Very measured guys.
Not aligned but surely looking good individually to produce a single day swell. I thought GFS looked better! Looking fwd to the update from the guru.
have a punt guys, it’s Defo unsure, but always fun to hear a gut feel call thrown in.
This is what I want to see .
Yes please!! What a free fall!
Are the screenshots of the SN forecast from the app, new unreleased model, admin only?
Right now, yeah.
But not for long.
Thanks stu, looks good. Date, period and tide at a glance will be a handy addition.
I like it
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/charts/gfs/aus?chartCode=prmsl_thk...
Antarctic swell pulse, plus 4 days of curve ball into warm Tasman seas massage, funnel up to tropical Fiji ... about 2nd -3rd Sept (ie. jam time) https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/jam_tomorrow
That low pushed further South of us than expected which i can imagine can only be a good thing.
It's got a good clean run across the bight now without any interference with land. Once (if) that high moves out over New Zealand i'm calling it's all on. Could be a damn worthy swell. If not could be flat as a lake! (and we should blame NZ..of course!)
or blame the bushy Tazwoman, blocking solid swell advances.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/charts/gfs/aus?chartCode=prmsl_thk...
"conditions are still tricky"..... its pumping..."
If the LWT is like clock work then we should be on Monday or Tuesday.
Let see what the local winds do.
Anyone seen a tide chart yet?
GET tHE POPCORN Ready
Hey Craig (anyone) …
We’re all praying for macking swells, offshores (n victories for JR and MP as the hardest charging backside barrel riders amongst the top 5s). But…
In the event it’s small and for a first year wsl fantasy league junkie who needs to make up 300 points on finals day to take the lolllies in our crew
If it’s small, do the prevailing winds favour or enable aerial surfing at cloudy? Or are they neutral? Or unfavourable and kinda rule out aerials?
I’ve been trying to figure it out with ChatGPT and google maps; wind directions, wave orientation… and I just got more confused
N/NW/NE would be conducive to airs but it'd be the ugliest Cloudbreak you could imagine especially if it's dribbling along the reef and sectioning..
I'd imagine if it's small though that Yago or Italo could do their big cartwheels regardless of a howling SE tailwind or no wind.
Not sure which of the women it gives an advantage to..probably Marks on her forehand being able to run down sections.
Hopefully this conversation is the closest thing we get to those conditions!!!
Much like SR said, the prevailing trades blow ESE which is semi-cross-shore, or SE which is down the line when it's really strong and coming around the corner a bit. Neither is good for airs and you'd have to think they could only be done earlier in the day, when the wind is lighter, or controlled grab rail affairs.
I'd say the swell will be too big for that anyway.
thanks fellas
For what it is worth - Rolling updates are great reading, also I may be more into finals day than I thought...
Stalls not airs please.
Still a very big difference between EC and GFS.
GFS very much weaker.
Small difference in the strength of the trade flow early Sep too.
Would be highly unusual at this time of year and just by looking at weather outside ffrom general gut feel for that low that's now sitting to the South of here to double back and push up from the Southern Ocean in SW WA as forecast in both scenarios.
appreciate the rolling updates … stoking the froth! and bringing back memories of double overhead waves at CB with my brother while sailing across the pacific 34 years ago (snuck in while CB was still private!) managed to avoid shish kebabs by sticking to the set waves.
Does anyone know what are considered "devil" winds for Cloudbreak.
ENE and N come up into the face creating horror ribs
Yep, anything with N in it.
Getting quietly excited about finals.
Never thought I’d say that.
Huey is warming to it.
Let’s go Molly & Robbo!!
Yep forecast starting to consolidate nicely. Almost at the point where we could lock in Tuesday 2nd September, 6-8ft Cloudbreak with decent winds.
Thanks Ben, that's what we wanted to hear. Let's go Aussies.
Oh yeah. Sounds like what we wanted to finish off the year. Fingers crossed.
wow. happy friday!
Excited to watch this play out! So interesting to see an early call take shape and evolve.
I'm a me-too, big thanks for the rolling forecast. Great idea. So relieved to hear it's likely there will be good waves. Like most of the crew here, I'm looking for the Aussie double!
6 -7 foot drainers going all the bloody way!
Low tide in the morning up to a midday high.
Low again in the evening.
1 day to rule them all.
Let’s hope the wind Gods are kind.
Tuesday tides...
Low: 8:11am (0.83m)
High: 2:39pm (1.59m)
I like the way the fetch extends right up into the Tasman and then hooks towards the North Island.
Should be good for consistency and getting into shish-kebabs.
WSL are canny buggers - guess they deserve a break given dire luck over the last couple of years.
Swell setup and period starting to look real good. Hopefully it holds and winds play ball.
BTW - the updated forecast notes and associated comments are very entertaining - conversational tone, informative/insightful and suspense building. If the best part of a surf trip is the anticipation, then the SN team nails it - much appreciated.
Canny joke for a Friday afternoon:
A Scotsman is mourning the death of his wife, and the funeral is a heartbreaking affair. The pallbearers pick up the casket and as they are moving through the hallway of the funeral home the casket hits a corner and opens, the body falling out. Miraculously the man's wife stands up, a little startled but otherwise alive and well!
20 years later, the wife dies for a second time. The funeral is a heartbreaking process once again. As the pallbearers pick up the casket and begin to move through the hallway of the same funeral home, they reach the same corner and the husband yells out: "canny with the corner lads!"
(Geordie sisters, the Unthanks ; )
7 am start Fiji time is 5 am AEST.
Decent forecast to finish on a serious reef break. Air game not required. Just proper surfing. Tubes, huge turns, wave sense and positioning with consistent six to eight foot sets. Good way to wrap this season, nobody disadvantaged, all with some chance. Looking forward to enjoying this day as a fan and spectator. But to be honest, looking forward even more to next year and a traditional Pipe finish. Hopefully the WSL will eventually bring back Sunset and Haleiwa, before Pipe, for a reinstated Triple Crown again with a more serious challenge to decide the world titles. Hawaiian end of season, three comps, as it was, and always should be. North Shore in Winter...try as they may, you really can't beat that.
If they do Sunset and Haleiwa, bring back Honolua for the women, rather watch that wave over the other two.
sounds good! However seems like a pretty perfect size for Italo and Yago to launch some crazy airs after a tube and turns.. would be hard to compete with!
Looks like alot of moving parts still. Can't rule out a more intense system developing in the Tasman but as it stands, 6-8 foot with an early 10ft pulse looks about right to me.
Appreciate the early calls southern.
Really can’t wait for this contest, fucken pumped for it.
Edit - if there’s swell
Yeah same here Moons, frothing. Yeew!
Cheers!
as a panacea to problematic swell come finals time, you can always watch O-dogs semi and finals performance from 2015 on repeat.
God that was good.
Back to back perfect heat scores at heaving 10foot Cloudbreak if you don't mind.
I think someone already posted it above, but the Taj v JJF heat is one of the best heats I’ve ever seen. Definitely rewatched that one a few times over the years.
Best heats:
JJF vs Slater Teahupoo
JJF vs Taj Cloudbreak
JJF vs JOB Pipeline
Will these Pro's have the Right Equipment if things Change ...10ft Plus Plus ?
Robbo definitely will, i think they start scratching to find boards when it starts getting in the 12 - 15ft range.
So much bad luck over the past few seasons. Feels weird that the WSL didn’t get the period 24th to the 1st.
EC has pulled back a touch, GFS is a little stronger.
The broadscale pattern remains in place.
Lock in Tuesday the 2nd, baby.
(also, although smaller, Wednesday and/or Thursday look great at this stage too).
Hey Ben, out of interest, what is causing the swell degredation as it passes by the Noumea/Vanuatu area on its way to Fiji?
Degredation? Not sure what you mean other than swell decay. Are you observing this on a chart?
Yeah, I'm not sure on the terminology, but it looks strong with size coming up through the Tasman and Coral Sea and then seems to lose size and strength approaching Fiji on its way past Noumea/Vanuatu.
Swell decay will result in a gradual loss of size as the energy moves away from its source (in this case, the swell source is closer to Fiji than what we'd normally see). But it doesn't lose energy per se (if you're referring to swell periods).
It's worth pointing out that this upcoming swell won't be a classic Cloudbreak event, as source winds were not super strong, so the resulting swell periods won't be really high - the leading edge will be around 15 seconds, with the bulk energy sitting a second or two below this. So when looking at the swell charts, we can't see the usual well-defined swell front (on the period charts) like you may otherwise expect.
Cheers Ben, really appreciate you taking the time to explain.
Latest model runs showing good alignment now. 6'-8' with the occasional bigger one looks a spot on call to me though @southenraw's positivity is infectious and 10' is not a ridiculous claim at this point.
Winds looking lighter on 2nd than 3rd/4th though?
EC wind direction for 3rd/4th would also be problematic if it comes to fruition.
Doesn't really matter though, wake up on the 2nd and check conditions.
If current map as of today holds id expect bigger. Might b time to dust off those guns.
As expected that low never split nor doubled back up to SwWa so all that energy still contained in one system. Still lots to play out though but geez one of those models is 10-12 ft plus in my opinion. Doesn't take alot for CB to get 10foot
ahh shit, edit that. That low is splitting down here. Apologies. Still looks to be on track to something significant if current maps hold firm.
Similar size to 2016?
The 2nd lands on a US public holiday , (sub one day for date line )
Labor Day weekend .
Sure bet to run then
Me thinks .
I feel like Griff should win and it should become a netflix movie.
bit of a brazzo rivalry story.. the external conflict of that wackadoodle tub fiasco where he was obviously meant to win with a 'rodeo' air.. and muffed it.. but they controversially gave it to him anyway.. the wsl politics = external conflict plotline..
and then the internal conflict plotline. where he eventually zens the fuck out (maybe after a superduper freesurf sesh and brolove chat with Jack as the sun sets), started soul surfing these great opportunities pro-tour gives you, and grows from the slappable fluro dimpled cali kid, to the wise and knowing dimpled kid in a black tee-o that disappears happily into the distance after smashing a weird *one-epic-alltime-set* window at cloudbreak (the Cloudbreak comp scenes filmed at Indian Beach near Cannon Beach, Oregon, obviously)
(middle section works well at 1.25 speed.. the music, too)
Griff could be played by a young Billy Boyd for another piece of brilliant mis-casting.
well if a AI is gonna make a predated hobbit to play Griff, @mattlock, Jack can be AI played by a young Tom Cruise, who gets a 10 and an esky and the girl, but nods and salutes as nonchalant Griff takes the heat.. (five or six AI enhance dimple exchange shots between the two).
Griff shouldered up the beach with a long continuous take showing all the playas who've appeared in the film, and some cameos:
That current GFS model, i can't see how it won't be 12-15foot at least if that stays true.
Comes up and goes down fast though and looks like it might peak late Sunday evening? :-(
Hopefully Monday morning though. I'm not that good with distances haha
Model guidance for incoming swell looks about the same this morning, as it did yesterday.
Of all of the things I'm looking at, model trend/stability is one of the most important - as it has a close correlation with forecast confidence.
So it's looking good for waves.
However we have seen a slight weakening in local winds towards more of a variable trend - despite the presence of a ridge across the Fijian region - which we'll have to keep an eye on.
There are a bunch of caveats with wind forecasts at Cloudbreak - lest we forget last year's unexpected westerly rotor (which I detailed here: https://www.swellnet.com/comment/1006166#comment-1006166).
But for now there's nothing to be overly concerned about.
High res model guidance really shouldn't be utilised at more than a few days out, but I'm gonna break that rule and show the wind forecast for Tuesday afternoon at Cloudbreak - showing an almost identical rotor setup for the afternoon, as per the 2024 event (see link above).
2024 wind comparison below:
Love the intel from the pros.
Cheers Ben.
I'm loving this rolling forecast thanks. The best forecasters in the land, pouring over every isobar, zooming in on a fluid future.
Do we think Yago and Molly are reading these? Hard to ignore, their fortunes fluctuating. This format is a cruel waiting game for the legit World Champions, fun for us though.
https://www.tavarua.com/the-current-posts/welcome-to-hedgeys-wellness-su...
"Learn the art of breath-hold training in the water with Augusto Vegas. This 4-hour mini-certification combines theory and practical exercises in the pool, teaching you vital skills to extend your surf sessions and improve your comfort in bigger waves."
Yoga with TC, daily ice baths, evening Q&A. Hog goes all in. How much?
Weekly Tavarua Rate X 2 ?
Faark Who Knows ...?
somewhere between 1k - 2k AUD per night per person normally..?
https://www.wavehunters.com/fiji-surfing/tavarua-islands-surf-pricing/
^^ 3k per night for this thing.. more..? $25k - $30k for the week..? plus travel..
I've had a ton of Fiji stop overs, you don't need to stay on tavi or Namotu.
Just have to link up with a boat guide ... you can do it way cheaper.
Looks like it's gonna be biiiiig! Yee ha! Over to the woz if they run or not when it's big and firing.
Pumping warm up waves.
Siiiiick.
Pretty sure that's old footage. That session was shot October 2023.
Yep, old footy.
ahh whoops!! Got shafted by youtube.
Cheers Stu!
Interesting Kelly is over there .
Peeing everywhere marking his turf
Or sliding into dm s or being super coach
Or all the above .
Kelly isn’t just over there LD , he’s got a real shot at title number 12 !
First little wobble in the model runs we've seen for a few days.
GFS is holding steady but EC has delayed and weakened the frontal progression, downgrading the Tues swell and pegging Thursday as the best day.
Nothing to be concerned with at the moment, but we'll need to keep an eye on this.
urgh not ideal at all.
What a difference a day makes.
Hopefully it wobbles back into shape.
Is the updated App going to show long wave trough position?
Yes.
GFS has a nice fetch projecting up into the Tasman overnight Saturday into Sunday, that's good for Cloudbreak no?
Yep.
It's just the other models (that were previously on board) have decided to pause and rethink their commitment to the cause.
They'll come back. Won't they?
Yes!! Optimism.
This low has alot of kick down here.
Swell jumped to 5m yesterday morning and i saw Geraldton topped out over 6m last night.
Copping the brunt of the weather now.
So it'll do something.
Just depends where it points and how long it takes to get there!!
Whilst it's technically part of the same broadscale system, observations in WA (especially up north) really don't have much correlation with Fiji.
Ahh ok. I thought the system with these severe SW gale force winds was going to be the same system that eventually passed W to E and would send some swell up the Tasman.
My bad.
EC are kooks!
Previous experience has found that belittling someone rarely results in a change of their position.
I encourage you to be nice to EC. Let it know it's still greatly loved, and how much we'd love to see it arc a broad swathe of 40kt winds through the Tasman Sea.
Nah, I'm done with their naysaying kookery! Time to call them out.
which ones your favourite?
Depends on the circumstance.
But as a rule of thumb, it's always good to NOT pick the model that is agreeing with your preferred outcome.
haha it would be a tricky one as a surf forecaster
Not EC or access.
Nah, i'm still pretty confident that it'll pull through and on time. I'd be surprised if it's not 10foot at some point in the swell when it hits CB.
Too much energy in this system for it not to.
Like i said, it jumped to 5m yesterday from nowhere. It's packing a punch.
Could be off the mark and admittedly full of optimism, but intuitively, that's what i'm seeing.
Backing you SR - after your herculean level optimism and delivery at Chopes
Haha cheers @FrazP.
I'm in a privileged position of just being able to shoot the shit without anyone paying for it or relying on it.
The pro's know a whole world of knowledge that i'm not aware of so i'd go with whatever they're calling at the moment.
The problem is that what a system does underneath WA doesnt have much correlation to what it'll do underneath Tasmania - which is where we want the storm to deepen.
Image below shows a classic Long Wave Trough set-up for CB, and under that scenario WA would have very little storm activity on its doorstep.
Solid clean long lines 8ft plus in certain parts of Vicco this morning
Nice. Same swell gets to Fiji on Friday where the period will be in the high teens, but it's just too off axis and short-lived to shake things up.
Yea, different swell to the ones hitting us towards the weekend you guys are looking at for the finals. First proper winter blast coming in a while, it’s riding up really high and west of vic at this stage for surf potential but could be an epic snow weekend for the alps if that’s the case. Anyone had much experience in the vicco resorts when the systems pass over with that strength, guessing plenty of the chairlifts would be closed :(?
Thanks Stu and have been taking that into considerations.
Looking at the steering influence of those problematic highs, but still weighing up based on trends of how these systems tend to move across the southern ocean from this point and continue to reshape themselves, i'm confident those highs over NZ will stall, keep moving it away from the coast and into an optimal window and with those highs being pretty stubborn and slow moving, allow it to deepen as it approaches the swell window. Just hope those highs move away to the E enough to allow it passage in time for the comp and that that pesky low currently setting up in the Coral Sea doesn't throw what should be a big SW wind fetch into a more Westerly one. Again, based on intuition, which is all i'm going on, i'm gonna call that all the pieces will continue to fall into place.
But i wouldn't be calling it at all yet if i were in your shoes, definitely not, when you actually have people relying on your calls. ha
note: Whilst the classic big Cloudbreak scenario is based on the map you provided, there are always alternatives to what makes a swell hit Fiji, and i think this one falls into that category. But it's going to be a shortlived window of swell when it does hit i reckon.
sucked to hear there’s a chance it could be at Restaurants.. I can see if Cloudbreak is 10ft them not wanting to send the women out so they’ll probably hold the whole thing at a smaller sized restaurants
That would be a very undesirable outcome indeed!!
Yeah this scenario would suck big time.
Cloudy or bust.
yeah apparently they’ve already commenced building the tower there.. if they do, it would be another example of why we should have separate tours atm
Not necessarily. If Cloudbreak is 15ft and bumpy with 25kt SE winds, Restaurants would be off the hook - and I reckon they'd be foolish to run it at CB on principle.
oh for sure if it’s not better at CB, Restaurants is a great wave.. but if they’re both on and CB is just bigger I’d rather see it at CB
I'm with ya on that one.
Should add this low and the one preceeding it's formation has continued to stay further South compared to what it's been forecast to do for the entire week which is probably a good sign that it'll continue to do so as it tracks East or ideally SE.
Hopefully if the first part of the system doesn't deliver the follow up closer to Fiji system will in time. Like i said since i spotted it SW of Africa a week and a half ago, it's a big system and it's packing a punch. It'll do something. Complex bastard though!
"Forecast Monday 23/08/25:" *25th ;-)
Thanks team, very promising!
Rumour they might run it over 2 days- which would lead one to think Men one day if big and women on another smaller day.
Very much hope not. That would make a mockery of the Finals Day format.