Day Three: 2025 J-Bay Open

Eight heats of the Men's Round of 16 concluded last night at declining, tricky 3-5 foot Supertubes, likely decimating the world title hopes of Jack Robinson and seriously derailing the Jordy Smith campaign.

The hangdog expression on Jordy Smith's face as he drifted into the rocks after losing to rookie Marco Mignot said it all. The worst case result for Jordy at his adopted home break in front of his home crowd was a last place finish. Only slightly less worse was a second-last place finish. It means a lot. The "aw shucks" free and easy surf dog persona is now redundant or worse, a liability.

Nothing just happens in an “aw shucks” way at Teahupoo, unless your last name ends with Drollet.

Jordy (WSL/McGregor)

It takes will and resolve and courage to make the decision to whip it on a backless bomb. We've seen Jordy create a pressure free bubble for himself to surf in this year. The bubble has now been well and truly burst, unless he is satisfied to bow out with a whimper. He's not a chump at Chopes but the results over the last five starts aren't suggestive of a master. His best finish during this time frame was a third at small Teahupoo. Otherwise, a 13th and three 9ths in a compressed post-cut field is it.

That won't cut it this time around and could see him drop to 4th or 5th with a long, improbable run through a stacked field to win his maiden title.

Jordy's heat loss looks inexplicable but unfolded with a certain ruthless logic. Mignot started with a couple of throwaways that seemed meaningless at the time but announced his plan to ride lots of waves and rely on a fading swell to rob Smith of opportunity. They both rode medium sets and Mignot took the exchange by a half-point.

Marco (WSL/McGregor)

By the logic applicable to Jordy he would have reckoned that if Mignot beat him on a medium set he needed a proper set to establish dominance via power and repertoire. He retired to the outside take-off to wait for that set wave. There were thirty minutes remaining for that to eventuate and vindicate Jordy's decision making. With priority he handed Mignot a wave with 21.55 remaining that the Frenchmen went to the air on for a 6.33. Ten minutes later he was slightly too deep for another that Mignot went tail high twice on for a 7.50, riding out of it with finger raised to mouth to quieten the crowd. He needn't have bothered, they were already sitting in stunned silence.

I've never missed Pottz more in the commentary booth. It was the very definition of what Pottz used to term “nervous moments”. Jordy checked his watch with the anxiety of a recreational surfer looking for one more wave while his wife had gone into labour ("Babe! I was just waiting for one more wave - it never came!") With 3 minutes and 35 seconds remaining - almost a full half hour since Jordy had ridden his first wave - Bru paddled into a glassy head-high wall. It ran then stopped dead, as dying swell trains are wont to do, and the best he could milk it for was a low 4.

Jordy (WSL/McGregor)

Jordy paddled back out slowly, accompanied by Mignot who could be seen chirping away happily to the South African, having successfully reversed the pressure equation and surfed a brilliant heat. Reminiscent, in terms of David defeating Goliath, of the QLD performance to defeat NSW in the state of Origin - if you'll pardon a Rugby League comparison.

Jordy has made a habit of last-minute heroics and buzzer beaters over his career. Though not quite to the level of Jack Robinson.

Like Jordy, this magical ability to attract a winning wave deserted Robinson in his heat with Leo Fioravanti. 6-0 was the head to head record in favour of Robbo prior to the clash. Leo had his two scores within the first half of the heat after winning hassling/positioning for the opening set. That left plenty of time for Jack to answer back, which he did with half the heat remaining.

Leo (WSL/McGregor)

Half a heat remaining, the best score of the heat under his belt, sitting in no 7 position with a 6-0 head to head over his opponent. You'd almost bet the house Jack would find a bomb set, or manufacture something. Seven attempts followed. In those seven rides he could not score better than a 1-point ride. If Jack fails to make the Finals, we'll come back to his heat, or his inexplicable meltdown at 6 foot Mainbreak.

For now, he probably needs to win or final at Teahupoo to be there in September.

Big wins for Yago and Kanoa at this crucial stage. Yago with a huge Hail Mary air onto the flats which will annoy fans looking for pointbreak surfing but had to be paid for the sheer degree of difficulty and risk involved. Kanoa's win was more conventional with classic J-Bay surfing.

Kanoa (WSL/McGregor)

Griff keeps winning to give himself a chance while Filipe looked solid but well below his best.

With Teahupoo and Cloudbreak ahead, Toledo has constructed for himself a mindset with easy exits for both eventualities. Referring to making the 5 he claimed, “if it does I'm happy and if it doesn't I'm happy”. He added that he “feels like I've done a lot already,” in reference to coming back from his mental health year before further proclaiming, “I'm proud of myself already”.

That does not sound like the language of a man ready to throw it down at Teahupoo or Cloudy. Which is fine. No-one can take the two World Titles off Toledo, nor his mastery of small waves.

Filipe (WSL/van Gysen)

Shaky win for Ethan Ewing. He seemed in a kind of paralysis in his heat with Jake Marshall. Falling on final closeout manoeuvres and handing prime sets to Marshall. If Jake had converted one of them it was game over for Ewing. As a fellow Moreton Bay sand islander, I would not want to impugn Ewing's heat smarts, but there's still some work to be done here. Shades of his rookie year when he hadn't grasped the most basic fact of pro surfing which is that you win or lose from the combined score of two waves, not one.

No matter, he's through and pledged to do better next heat. He hasn't quite been there this year, some of which has to do with judges no longer paying his surfing to the degree they did over the previous 24 months and some of which is his own making. Fizzling at the crucial moments has been a hallmark of the year for Ewing. He's running out of time to change that unfortunate pattern.

A few lay days ahead with a big finish still in the offing. Griff and Pickles are my picks based on what we've seen so far.

// STEVE SHEARER

Corona Cero Open J-Bay Men’s Round of 16 Results:
HEAT 1: Yago Dora (BRA) 14.57 DEF. Joao Chianca (BRA) 13.67
HEAT 2: Leonardo Fioravanti (ITA) 13.34 DEF. Jack Robinson (AUS) 9.76
HEAT 3: Kanoa Igarashi (JPN) 13.50 DEF. Crosby Colapinto (USA) 9.33
HEAT 4: Griffin Colapinto (USA) 14.37 DEF. Cole Houshmand (USA) 12.57
HEAT 5: Marco Mignot (FRA) 14.57 DEF. Jordy Smith (RSA) 11.17
HEAT 6: Filipe Toledo (BRA) 14.97 DEF. Barron Mamiya (HAW) 10.60
HEAT 7: Connor O'Leary (JPN) 12.83 DEF. Italo Ferreira (BRA) 12.33
HEAT 8: Ethan Ewing (AUS) 12.00 DEF. Jake Marshall (USA) 10.00