With one contest to go before the Final's Day showdown at Cloudbreak, the Final Five is far from set - and that goes for the men and women. Much is resting on the last contest of the regular season, the Tahiti Pro, and a Hollywood scriptwriter couldn't conjure a better scenario.

Act 1, Scene 1: The heaviest wave in the world, with a stacked forecast, and every heat laden with world title implications

Yeah, the title race started back in January at Pipeline, but as of Day One at Teahupoo, every move the contenders make will shape their chances at holding the trophy aloft.

Steve Shearer has watched (almost) every CT heat surfed this year. Here's his take on the contenders and their world title chances.

1.Yago Dora

Two pure hollow lefts ahead for the coolest cat on tour almost seems an unfair advantage, certainly a form of cosmic justice on a Tour dominated by slopey rights.

It would be hard not to see a Yago World Title as a kind of Brazilian corrective for below-the-line Anglo audiences. Impeccable style, seamless charging at Pipe, Teahupoo and Fiji, moderate claiming etc etc. There's simply nothing for critics to grab hold of. It would be the last of the Final Five titles but likely to shed all the controversy and asterisk talk attached to Toledo's double. Word and deed seem to match up perfectly here.

Dora has stated repeatedly throughout the season he feels his surfing is up to title standard, he wants it and he feels confident he can get it. Three wins and only lefts ahead and it's his to lose.

Yago, comfortable flying through clear air, comfortable under heavy water (WSL/Sloane)

2. Jordy Smith

A global wave of sentiment is swelling behind bru, but sentiment doesn't win world titles.

The dying cowboy in Clint Eastwood's 'Unforgiven' comes to mind. Dying in the dirt before Clint's character finishes him off, the cowboy pleads, “I don't deserve this.” To which Clint responds, “deserve's got nuthin' to do with it”.

All the 'Jordy deserves this title' talk in the world isn't going to get bru over the ledge at Teahupoo for what has been a persistent bogeyman for him during his career. Severe injuries, controversial re-surfs, patchy results - it's not been a happy hunting ground for him.

If he does go out early at Teahupoo and fails to complete an arduous task at Cloudbreak, that early round loss at J-Bay in perfect sunshine before an adoring home crowd will come to haunt him.

3. Kanoa Igarashi

He's not the best in the air, not the best at carves, or backside tuberiding, or even frontside tuberiding for that matter, and he's not the best heat strategiser - not the best at any one single facet of pro surfing. Yet Kanoa is damn good at everything.

The whole 'born and bred to be a pro surfer' story doesn't sit well with Antipodean audiences. We find something deeply offputting about it, even offensive. Surfing, in our minds, is something magical you discover and then develop a relationship with, not some career path you are ordained to follow by your parents like becoming a doctor or a lawyer. It's probably time we got over that. Because the truth is there's not really a struck match between Kanoa and Leo Fioravanti, or even Jack Robinson. Not to mention hundreds of kids coming through right now, picked out and groomed from toddlerhood to become pro surfers. How that decision will pay off for those kids is a longer story for a different time.

For Kanoa, it's been a spectacular success and others will attempt to emulate that. A Kanoa world title still seems highly unlikely. He's solid at Teahupoo, ultra competent at Fiji, but it's hard to see him overcoming better credentialed opponents at both those locations to take the crown. If he does win the title, no-one is better positioned to reap a commercial bounty from it.

Naysayers be damned, the suits love Igarashi.

Kanoa stuffing pleasant Teahupoo during the Olympics

4. Italo Ferreira

It's been a typically frenetic year for Italo, yet at some point the hyper-kinetic attack went off the rails.

What caused this devastating loss of focus is up for debate. New girlfriend, pregnant girlfriend, marriage to girlfriend, new sponsorship with Nike and a truckload of new commitments, etc etc. That's very far from a simple, single-track life focussed on a world title.

After looking unbeatable in the opening stanzas, Italo came to Australia and got flogged in three consecutive early round occasions by guys not even on the CT. One is bad luck, two is unfortunate, three is a disaster. A tepid fightback of sorts has ensued since then resulting in a single finals day appearance at Saquarema

Still, of the contenders Italo is the best placed to comeback and win the title. One of the best at Teahupoo at any size and a very strong record at Cloudbreak, including a win over Slater in windy 8-10 foot surf in his rookie year, 2015.

A sly bet on Italo, even with the mountain of distraction surrounding him, still seems a good move.

5. Ethan Ewing

Hard to think of Ewing's year without the famous scenes from Glengarry Glen Ross in the mind's eye. When the boss is lecturing the salesman about selling real estate: “You close or you hit the fucking bricks, pal.”

Ewing just hasn't been able to close. Best surfer in the draw at pet events like Bells, Burleigh, Trestles, and J-Bay, that somehow slipped away from him without a win or even a Final. Flashes of brilliance, but not when it counts has been the story of EE's year.

No chance of a title now with Teahupoo and Fiji ahead.

In mid-size rights Ethan will always be a favourite (WSL)

6. Griffin Colapinto

Basically a mirror image year of Italo's for camp Colapinto, at least as far as the slightly more famous and multi-talented older brother goes.

Griff has shown his chops (no matter how limited) in areas as diverse as rapping, new age healing, journalling, and peace-making between the warring tribes of pro surfing. Notably, Brazilians and the judging panel.

Griff's opening to the year was full of sliding doors moments - on the wrong end of the “there but for the Grace of God go I” equation. Brutal, wave of the winter opportunities at Backdoor led to 10-point rides for Jack Robinson and Al Cleland and a vicious beat down for Griff, exposing his only character flaw. To wit, he's always had a problem with arousal. Too much, leading to recklessness and bad outcomes. Too little and he reverts to safety surfing in big moments. Like we saw at Trestles for his Finals showings.

The fact that, right now, he is risking everything to chase down paddle bombs augurs poorly for the Californian. There's only a certain amount of risk available for any given surfer in any given year and woe betide those who use it up when they don't need to.

Slim chance.

7. Filipe Toledo

It's a strange Toledo who has come back to full-time competition after a mental health year.

Subdued but still strangely defiant despite not attempting in any meaningful fashion to overcome the external factors which have dogged him through his peak years. Humility and honesty were not among the qualities which Toledo offered, which further disconnected him from the global fan base.

We're basically still stuck in a time warp. Despite being unbeatable at times in head-high surf, fans still won't accept a world champion who sits on the shoulder and looks the other way when it's heaving.

No change = no change, and with a stacked forecast for Chopes, barring catastrophic calls from contest directors, Pip gets an eight-month off season before he shows up at Bells as one of the favourites. Such is the strange logic of pro surfing.

8. Jack Robinson

The great scientific revolution of modernity made reality understandable and pliable in ways which have enabled wonders. Big buildings, planes that carry hundreds of people across oceans, modern medicines, artificial limbs, fibreglass and foam and resins etc etc.

Some aspects of reality remain inscrutable. Like quantum mechanics, where particles can influence each other across time and space in completely mysterious ways, and Jack Robinson, whose heat performances this year have ranged from elite to comical, with no rhyme nor reason behind them.

His ten-pointer in a losing heat at Pipe is still the wave of the year. Brilliant at Bells, boardriders-level at Burleigh, Jack's year really came down to an afternoon heat at 6-8 foot mainbreak against Imai Devault. Surfing an uncharacteristically inept heat at a wave he has beaten JJF at twice at for wins, Jack needed a 9 with five minutes remaining. A chunky wedge loomed up, offering a backdoor barrel for Robinson. Somehow, paddling in Jack flubbed the entry line and got pitched from crest to trough like a tradie surfing on Saturday morning with a hangover.

If he fails to make the Five, that early exit will be seen as the crucial error of the year for Team Robinson.

Still, with the Cosmic Cone Lord about to enter Tahiti and then Cloudbreak, an improbable run from the outer barrier still looms as a possibility.

Julian Wilson

Mentioned for fun because he remains one of these living ghosts who haunt the sport.

Could anyone really doubt - especially after what he showed at Burleigh - that J-Dub could enter the draw at Tahiti or be in the Final Five and take either or both events out? In what other sport could a guy or gal who has been retired for four years still be competitive at the elite level? And yet has to suffer the vicious ignominy of being sent to the salt mines to grind through heats of random beachbreak slop against kids to try and get back to where he clearly belongs.

The only light at the end of the tunnel for Jules (currently ranked 73rd on the Challenger Series) is the Pipe Challenger comp, where he might be able to claw back lost ground and stage a late comeback. Otherwise, how many years can a 35-year old with a business and a family plough into a second or third tier surfing competition before realising the opportunity cost outweighs the reward?

1. Molly Picklum

Among the women contenders, Pickles is in the strongest position.

Of her two greatest threats, one remains mostly within her control. That being her flaky decision-making under pressure, as seen in the Final at J-Bay where she really choked.

The other threat has just signed with Nike and is unlikely to make the Final Five. If Erin Brooks makes it - via winning Chopes and others ahead of her falling out early - Pickles is in trouble. Pickles backside tuberiding is brave and on an upwards trajectory but not in the same league as Erin's frontside.

Still, lots of unlikely things would have to go wrong for Pickles to not lift the world title trophy. Like Yago, it's hers to lose.

Molly during last year's warm ups at Teahupoo (Surfing Australia)

2. Gabby Bryan

Backside tuberiding is the great dividing line between competent and expert surfers.

In analysing Gabby's world title chances we are faced with a stark truth: her backside tube skills are rudimentary, at best. In two previous starts at Chopes she's been knocked in the Elimination Round without a single tube completion.

She actually did worse last year - two sub-5-point heat totals - then she did the year before, where she managed a 7-point heat total.

The only other form guide we have for left tubes this year (she only went right at the Pipe Masters and got knocked by Isabella Nichols in the Round of 16) is Abu Dhabi. Not much confidence inducing footage to be found there. Her best left was a 6.17 and featured two shallow tube rides and not much in the way of speed control or setting it up.

Setting aside the question about how desirable it would be for a Women's World Champ to have only basic backside tube skills, the practical considerations of her getting through heats at Teahupoo and Cloudbreak with such a limited skillset renders her run for the World Title as extremely unlikely.

3. Caity Simmers

There's not many people who could effectively place themselves in her shoes and decipher Caity's year. World champ as a teenager, fabulously wealthy but still living at home, a determined and stated desire to showcase the artistic side of surfing and not be a jock.

Caity could retire right now, do nothing except freesurf or make quirky videos and her legacy would be secure. Mentally, she hasn't looked fully present all year, apart from a brilliant sustained performance at Abu Dhabi, which she single-handedly elevated from depressing to sublime.

Physically, conditions have seemed to conspire against her diminutive size, illustrated when she was blown off the back of a set wave at Punta Roca. Offsetting that is a brilliant skil set that includes fully developed backside tuberiding.

What sort of Simmer shows up to Teahupoo will determine her title hopes. Languid and lackadaisical, or focussed and determined?

We haven't really seen the latter since the “Pipeline is for the fucking girls” moment. If we do see that fiery, statement-making surfer show up, then it's game on for a back to back title run.

Caity backside jam at Teahupoo during the Olympics

4. Isabella Nichols

If I was involved with Team Nichols, I'd be sitting the Sunny Coaster down every evening and filling her to the gills with State of Origin games. Getting Billy Slater and every other Queensland legend on the phone to her, trying to induce that particular Queensland mindset which is so effective. Generating a siege mentality, underdog status that elevates a performance above the personal and makes it a way of striking back at hostile forces.

We haven't really seen performances that gritty on the female tour since Pauline Menczer. Bella's backside tuberiding has been advancing but it's still on the basic end of the scale. Unless she can conjure a Queensland miracle, no chance.

5. Bettylou Sakura Johnson

Not a great deal to work with as far as Sakura's backside tuberiding goes. Fearless at Backdoor and she's had a couple of great tubes at Pipe. The patchy record at Teahupoo doesn't inspire much confidence but she has a flintiness and an open competitiveness that's second only to Molly Picklum.

Slim chance.

Considering it's her backyard, Bettylou's form at Backdoor is great, yet her form in hollow lefts is lesser known (WSL/Heff)

6. Caroline Marks

It seems almost insane to describe a dual Tahit Pro winner, with an Olympic Gold Medal and a 2023 CT Victory as mediocre at Teahupoo, but if you dig into the results a clearer picture of Caz' performances becomes clear.

She won in 2023 with a single double-digit heat total, all event. In 2024 she was knocked in the Semis with a similar record - one heat total of double digits. Her Semi, on the pumping day that Tatiana Weston-Webb scored a 10 in a losing heat to Vahine Fierro, only featured a single ridden wave. In forty minutes of pumping 6-10 foot Chopes, Marks was only able to catch a single wave.

These facts aren't meant as slurs, just numbers that reflect a bizarre reality. A two-time winner out here has really only got a basic grasp on the break and that basic grasp breaks down once the surf is over 6 foot.

Nonetheless, if organisers wait for swell to settle down and hold the women's heats in small, manageable surf, Caz will assume favouritism, rightly or wrongly.

Title chances depend entirely on the contest director's call to run or hold.

7. Tyler Wright

The famous boxing quote from Marvin Hagler concludes, “It's hard to get up at 5am to do roadwork when you're sleeping in silk pyjamas."

Tyler has alluded to this struggle continuously through the year - finding the motivation to do the basic work required of a professional athlete. There's been injuries and existential crises about her relationship to pro surfing to deal with. And really, a good solid career earning good money with no real need to stretch into uncomfortable areas like Pipe or Tahiti – even though she can do it, and do it as as well as most of the women.

Her status as an icon in Australia seems secure, regardless of what happens for the rest of the year. This lack of hunger and what was termed by D. Hynd as “bastard desire” dooms her campaign for a third world title.

// STEVE SHEARER