It began with signing Italo Ferreira in January, ending his long association with Billabong, and continued with a sticker on Erin Brooks' board that appeared last month.

Nike, the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company, is once again entering the surfing market.

They've been here before, of course. "Third time's the charm" has become the go-to phrase for Nike's current reappearance. Except this isn't the third time they've made overtures to the surfing world, as many commentators have stated. It's their fourth.

Each time, Nike's entry strategy has differed - an approach that, unsurprisingly, reveals how little a mainstream heavyweight understands niche sport.

Italo Ferreira in his first Nike photo shoot. Has surfing looked as much like tennis?

Nike's first advance was excessive and typical of the Beaverton behemoth. In 1990, they secured Laird Hamilton as a sponsored rider and printed multiple double-page spreads across American surf magazine - thematic and colorful campaigns that missed the mark entirely.

If the surf legacy companies worried about Nike's intrusion, they needn't have. The campaign was more '80s flash than '90s core, appealing to the day-glo volleyball crowd rather than surfers. They missed the cultural vibe by about five years, and in 1992, Nike beat a humbling retreat.

Food for thought: This ad for Nike appeared at the same time Gash Surfboard ads were appearing in the Aussie surf media.

In 2005, Nike returned with puffed-up core credentials through a sub-brand called Nike 6.0, targeting the X-Games era of extreme action sports: BMX, snowboarding, wakeboarding, skateboarding, and surfing.

Nike 6.0 signed promising youngsters Carissa Moore, Lakey Peterson, Julian Wilson, and Kolohe Andino to head-to-toe deals. They also became umbrella sponsors for surf contests, including the 2011 US Open, where they offered an unprecedented $100,000 first-place prize (though Quiksilver upstaged them a month later with $300,000 at the New York Pro).

Nike's Wall Street budget caused considerable hand-wringing from the surf industry establishment. The rationale: a cashed-up newcomer was hitching a free ride on a wagon built by Rip Curl, Billabong, Quiksilver, O'Neill, and others.

Despite the establishment's anguish, Nike's timing was once again flawed - though this time they couldn't be blamed. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis sent retail into a tailspin. When the dust settled, surf fashion had fallen out of favor, while the internet cast a sepia tint over traditional business models. Magazines struggled, brick-and-mortar stores suffered, yet the path forward remained unclear.

The 2010s was kryptonite for fledgling surf brands, especially those with proven income streams elsewhere. In 2013, Nike 6.0 left surfing with a swoosh.

Pre-dating the WSL's push, Nike 6.0 pushed young female talent as much as the men. They even produced a girls-only surf film, 'Leave A Message'.

Nike's third chronological entry actually preceded their second direct attempt. In 2002, they piggy-backed into surfing by buying Hurley for $70 million. The company was just four years old but hugely successful, particularly in Southern California. When Nike 6.0 launched three years later, Nike suddenly had two surfing entities and a roster of young talent.

Hurley proved more durable than Nike's direct efforts, hanging on until 2019 when Nike sold it to Bluestar Alliance.

Nike's sporadic interest in surfing raises legitimate questions about their commitment. They appear when prospects look bright and exit when conditions deteriorate. While hostility from established surf companies was understandable, it proved ultimately unnecessary - Nike talked a big game, then went silent.

Erin smiling while signing on the dotted line.

Now they're back - fourth time's the charm - entering a completely transformed business landscape. The old stalwarts, Billabong, Quiksilver, and Rip Curl, have all been bought out and merged, which undermines their moral authority to condemn an industry outsider seeking access.

Notably, Erin Brooks' Nike deal covers footwear only, with Rip Curl remaining her primary sponsor - a situation hard to imagine during Nike's previous entries.

Meanwhile, a new core has emerged in surf business: independent, surfer-owned companies like Needessentials, Former, and Florence Marine X. Each has cultivated loyal customer bases - surfers who identify with these brands. There's unlikely to be much crossover with Nike, reducing potential friction.

Florence Marine X may even welcome Nike's return, given that Bob Hurley is a partner. After all, he engineered his original company's sale to Nike in 2002. Does he still have those contacts in the rolodex? Watch that space.

Though one degree removed, John John was ostensibly sponsored by Nike while he rode for Hurley. Could the situation repeat itself with Florence Marine X?

It's also become much easier for new companies to establish themselves in surfing. With print media no longer the cultural arbiter, there's no need to craft stories that align with prevailing fashion trends - that's dinosaur thinking. Influencers now determine what's cool, and it's even better when they're also the paid talent. Italo and Erin, both athletes and influencers.

It’s also likely that Nike have, once again, got a whiff of greener pastures. Realised that surfing, while wildly restructured to how it once was, is also extremely popular and hence rife with opportunity.

Did I say likely? I meant definitely. Call it a sure thing that Nike has done their research and is ready to tap a rich vein.

After decades of misfires dating back 35 years, Nike has rejoined the lineup. There's less resistance than ever before, as the surfing world is more fractured than ever. Today's surfers are generally newer to the sport, less brand-loyal, and more diverse - all factors that should provide Nike a helpful tailwind.

Then again, the best predictor of future behavior is past performance, and Nike has proven to be surfing's fairweather friend. Let's see how long it lasts this time.

// STU NETTLE