Early Forecast: 2025 Tahiti Pro
Lexus Tahiti Pro
August 7-16
Tahiti Time is 20 hours behind AEST - 8am TAHT is 4am AEST
Winter is swinging in the South Pacific, and with it Teahupoo has seen all manner of action. From 'fun' size days for kids, to swells that have pushed the outer bounds of paddle surfing.
With the waiting period for the Lexus Tahiti Pro kicking off in just over a week’s time, the forecast is showing no sign of powering down. In fact, it's seriously stacked from now right up until the opening day, with a number of significant swells inbound.
Showing the benefit of a wide open swell window, the incoming swells are a mix of direction and period, from a large south-southwest groundswell pulse formed near the polar shelf, to proximate westerly energy from a broad mid-latitude low forming north-east of New Zealand.
As for providing an ideal canvas for CT competitors to warm up in...well, the sheer size will rule out anyone in self-preservation mode.
Fortunately for viewers who enjoy their blood sport...sorry, technical surfing over live coral reef, there'll be plenty of size left into the opening day.
Matahi Drollet deep in Teahupoo's netherworld (Jerome Brouillet)
At this stage, the opening three days look to be great for running the contest from start to finish on the one swell cycle. Something the WSL has been unable to do for some time.
The swell in question will initially be generated as a mid-latitude low north-east of New Zealand before moving south-east and intensifying. The leading global forecast models are still a little divergent on the strength of this mid-latitude system, with the American solution going harder than the more reliable European.
A conservative prediction will see the swell make landfall the day before the waiting period, when it'll be strictly tow-only, before opening day dawns in the 10 foot range. The size will ease slowly, down to 6-8 feet into the second day, and still 4-6 feet on day three.
Though easing, the proximity of the storm to Tahiti should increase consistency of the sets.
Also, with the swell approaching from a more southerly direction, the bigger waves - particularly for the opening day - will be more approachable for paddlers compared to the slabbing west swell from earlier in the week.
Fetch generating large southerly energy for the opening days of the waiting period
With the low staying at arm's length from Tahiti, local winds look good to great. Gusty out of the east on the opening day, swinging more favourable east-northeast over the following days.
As the waiting period is ten day's long, the WSL will be preparing contingencies should opening day be too big for competition. Fortunately, the swell cycle continues with increasing likelihood of a pure south swell following hot on the heels of the initial swell.
Regardless, from later this weekend into the following week there's a lot groundswell activity within Tahiti's swell window. In the comments below, we’ll continue to track those swells while sharpening up the forecast for the opening days of the waiting period.
Comments
Bumper forecast. Let’s hope they don’t shelter them too much from the larger stuff.
Surely the competitors aren't going to use the excuse "Oh we didn't bring big enough boards" again? This forecast was written some 8-9 days out from Day 1 (noting Tahiti is a day behind us), surely every competitor knows what's coming.
Who's including Toledo in their fantasy team!!! ;)
No way he gets through his first heat
No way he gets on the plane
My argument - chopes, margs, pipe, cloudbreak are famous for their size and power. Why go to the effort of holding a comp there if they are going to shelter the surfers from it. Look forward to the comp.
Will be interesting to see what the call is in the first few days of competition. Will give a good indication of the WSL's direction for next year.
Please be big and perfect to see the chargers shine.
Opening Round draws:
Surely the Olympic gold medallist at this venue would get a shot
He's in heat 2 put the house on him
Yea. He’s going to be frothing.
Barron / jack in opener should be insane if they run first day.
Best Woz forecast in how long??
Tough draw for Marco Mignot…
Bring it on! Hope Flippy has stocked up on Imodium
what we cooking?
Scomo's chicken curry?
"the American solution going harder than the more reliable European"
Don't Americans ALWAYS go harder than the Euros??
Could you please write a 304-page book on the subject, then tell us all about tall poppies? Can't wait
Gosh - I've got y'all locked into a Pavlovian Response Loop (see example) so tight I can literally post about ANYTHING and your brain responds with the exact page count for my upcoming book, surfEXPLORE: Discovering New Surfing Locations Worldwide, available for preorder on Amazon.
Remarkable - I literally deserve a medal for exemplary marketing
Example:
Before conditioning: The bell rings (NS) and the dog doesn't salivate.
During conditioning: The bell rings (NS) and food is presented (UCS), causing the dog to salivate (UCR).
After conditioning: The bell rings (CS) and the dog salivates (CR), even without the food.
Quite a good forecast for Tahiti, let's hope it's not too big on Opening Day!
^ ‘exemplary marketing’ (& fuckn gold medal dickhead) hahaha
?si=Jn9-i_e6bfHAN9XeCheers for yanksplaining Pavlov's Response, but au contraire, it is you who hears the bell and rushes to post a lame comment unrelated to the content of the post. I bet you got told you were special a lot as a child
Classic seppo, no idea lol.
All I heard was pavlova … mmmmm
Yeah I read pavlova too.. damn that's yum
Shit stirrer.
will be very interesting to see what the opening odds are for heat 7, will they look at rankings or have some intel?.
I hope another swell appears out of nowhere and keeps it a 8-10ft for the entire waiting period so the WSL can't puss out. If they don't go on the first day, the whole show is weak as piss.
“ Remarkable - I literally deserve a medal for exemplary marketing “……..how’s the secret spot that works in a SE wind looking ? With all this swell in august you must be pretty excited .
."how’s the secret spot that works in a SE wind"
Ermmmmm - which one?
There are a few locations in the Papailoa Road area on the North Shore that can be good on a SE wind - very rare wind for north shore O'ahu though.
Locals only, brah -
HA ! I sorta recall your secret mystery spot was in a wave rich area of Indonesia in the Sumartra / Mentawai region and that it worked in SE winds . For $3000USD , 3 blind mice would be led by the nose to empty perfection . Well you will get the swell but the year has been dominated by NNW winds so your guaranteed waves are going to be the mystery you have been rattling on about . Have you considered “ go fund me “ ? Brah .
We have several people interested in making the Indonesia project in August - plenty of SW swell and SE wind.
Americans, Brits, Euros - they don't mind paying for knowledge, expertise and experience in this context.
You know what they say in Texas - "It ain't bragging if you can back it up"
Are you ready to commit?
Windy data for the location shows wind today from the NW at 6 kts, swell 1.5 meters from the SW - the righthander will be good, no one surfing.
USD $1500 gets you a coveted invitation to the private Facebook group with the complete lowdown in text, images and charts.
Only Australians seem to find the concept of paying for expertise offensive - ?
oh good! you got my application : )
you haven't answered about whether my teen kids would be covered under your insurance?
Looking forward to the movie. If you only need 3 people then America , Euros and Brits should have you covered. Do you have skunked insurance ?
Why oh why?
The lingering fart.
Go away.
ain't this a tahiti article? I've lost count of the amount of threads that have become unashamedly grifting niggler threads.. I kinda like the guy's mercenary moxie; he don't make friends, don't care who we are, he just makes waves. It's a way to approach life for some, I guess.. or marketing.. if that's what this is.. like I've said, may translate to 3 or 4 more book sales : /
Ahem -
I did make a comment relevant to the Tahiti forecast - several of them
I did not bring up THE BOOK, someone who is under a vicious Pavlovian Response Lock did.
I did not bring up the Indonesia Secret Spot surfEXPLORE trip, someone else did -
Best to focus your wrath elsewhere.
Besides, all the powers that be care about is keeping the servers ticking over with traffic AND -
Are you not entertained?
Yank-bashing is a sport in Australia, don't you know?
Ahem -
I really have no idea what we're talking about..
…all aboard the calhoun expwess fast boat ;)
Yank bashing is a world wide phenomena.
Wonder why?
It has nothing to do with the fact some seppos have an ingrained ‘king of the world’ calhounesque arrogance hmmmmm
;);)
Yes, it really is astounding the arrogance? Nah, it’s ignorance.
Yes maybe so …maybe both
- eggspurt seppo deserves a medal tho
…for best dramatic performance by a calhounian wank yank wannabe alby mangle seppo dat think his shit don’t stink stuck in a singaporean sea of imagined exploratory hand ova ya money fake buddeees
- with seasonal guarantees ;)
Ah yes totally undeserved of course.
Toledo has already sown the seeds for a no-show by repeatedly saying he wasn't interested in the final 5 etc etc- so zero surprises if he gets subbed out with injury at the last minute.
I really hope they find a way to get either Matahi Drollet, or Eimeo Czermak in there, or preferably both.
The two best guys by far at Teahupoo when it's pumping.
Would be interesting to see whether any of the CT guys could match them.
Too bad Gabs Medina turned DOWN the wildcard invitation - he can match anyone, local or import, at Teahupo'o.
Maybe after he sees the forecast he will change his mind -
Wrong again John. He's standing by his word.
Hate to agree John (not because it's you, because I don't enjoy Gabe's poo stance), but he really does bring a level of confidence, skill and excitement at Chopes that's possibly lacking this year without him (I feel dirty).
YOU AGREED WITH THE OBNOXIOUS SEPPO -
Please shower immediately, before you set off an epidemic!
Hahaha, there you go!
Nerves of steel with precision timing required. Italo is getting into it early; smart move.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/reels/2025/07/31/watch-teahupoo-july-28th-...
Maybe some WSL surfers could hand their spot to a wildcard or two & or jetski toe in.
More wildcards, Matahi, Emeko,.. JJF?
&t=36s
How come no Matahi?
Didn't win the qually comp?
i'm with you FR - Felipe won't turn up. Injury incoming.
Why do some of the Tahitians have the French Polynesian flag next to their name and others the French flag?
Anyway, looking forward to seeing what a 12 year old girl can do out there.
Fil has Leo and chianca first up. When Tyler can win 2 pipe masters never completing a pipe barreling wave, 12 yr old local is a good chance at chopes
Strong East wind day 1
Sounds like devil wind
Can someone get Satan down here to sort this out.
Yo bro, he'de'scope from'de west'flow
or D'magic Longbottom 6'8"
Seems like Huey has restored the karmic balance from the dodgy reign of Elo, and rightly so, the woz deserves it after finally listening to their fans.
Going to be awesome viewing, can’t wait to see the battle for the final 5. The only guy in the running who you wouldn’t pick to send it is Kanoa, fingers crossed Jack and Ethan can scrape in.
On a side note, must be a nervous comp director with a 12 year old in the event and a macking forecast.
Roger Waters "All we can do (as citizen of earth) is stand shoulder to shoulder and resist them (evil dickheads ltd)
"... & look after people...."
Can we get rid of this John Callaghan hero please Stu, seems to hijack every second thread on here (sorry to bring more attention to him).
Anyway bring on Tahiti with a promising forecast !
think i are bad chinese last night o can’t make the flight