Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Last of the E swell easing through Sat with small leftovers on offer
• Freshening W/NW tending stronger N/NW winds Sat, similar Sun
• Strengthening N winds Mon with a building N/NE windswell, easing Tue with NW winds
• More small NE windswell possible next week as high sets up in Tasman, Thurs and Fri most likely
• Stronger E/NE swell possible later next weekend as low drifts down from Coral Sea into the Tasman- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Pumping surf to 4-5ft yesterday under W-NW winds with smaller 3-4ft surf from the E-E/SE today under W/NW winds easing back to variable breezes.

This weekend and next (Jun 14 - 20)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. We’ve got a small low pressure trough moving north from the Hunter up towards the MNC, expected to fizzle out and move offshore through tomorrow. In it’s wake we’ll see high pressure move from the inland over the Tasman, north of Tasmania bringing NW winds and more settled conditions as it moves away. The low responsible for this weeks swell has faded and is passing over New Zealand.

We’ll see winds freshen from the NW tomorrow as a front approaches from the W with surf easing to 2ft on Sat. 

We’ll see winds stay mod/fresh NW or even N/NW on Sun with some small N/NE windswell wrap to 2-3ft on Mon under similar winds. We may see that swell extend into Tues morning before rapidly easing as the fetch gets shunted away by a small low sweeping across the south of the Island, bringing fresh W’ly winds Tues.

Nothing much then until the end of the week or weekend as a large high moves into the Tasman. GFS suggests a low moving from the Coral Sea into the Tasman which has potential to generate E/NE for Tasmania if it tracks far enough southwards.

Low dropping down into the Tasman next week may generate quality E/NE swell next weeked- stay tuned

Failing that we may see some small NE windswell next week from the high as it sets up a NE flow in the Tasmanian swell window. 

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!