Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• N/NE windswell easing Tue with NW winds
• Small S swells Wed and Thurs (tiny/flat away from S exposed breaks) with SW winds
• Tiny/flat surf into the weekend 
• Workable NE windswell developing Sun and extending into Mon
• S swells expected medium term

Recap

Leftover E swell to 2-3ft was reported Sat with W/NW winds. Only tiny surf to less than a foot on Sun with a small NE windswell building today to 1-2ft under freshening N/NW-N winds. 

This week and next (Jun 16 - 27)

High pressure over Australia and high pressure SE of NZ are leaving a gap across the Tasman at present, with a weak low and front just to the east of Tasmania. The low and front dissipate as they move into the Tasman. A low is currently forming N of the north Island. This system is modelled to deepen over the short term but it tracks SE and rotates away from our swell window as it does so- very much reducing the swell generating potential for the eastern seaboard. The high over Australia eventually tracks into the Tasman late this week with a strengthening trend. Model divergence remains pronounced for the outcomes from this, with GFS still suggesting some kind of trough/easterly dip and enhanced E’ly swells. The European model has a more subdued outlook with a weaker high and trade-wind band remaining further north in line with seasonal norms. GFS seems to be the outlier here, so we’ll continue to monitor through the week with a more conservative outlook as the most likely outcome. 

In the short run we’ll see winds shift from N/NW to W then W/SW as the front pushes past Tasmania tomorrow. Get in early for NE windswell to 2-3ft which will disappear quickly as the N’ly fetch gets shunted eastwards by the front. A small signal of S/SE groundswell is expected to supply inconsistent 2ft sets.

Very small signal of S and S/SE swells continue into Wed with mod/fresh W/SW winds as the low sits to the SE of Tasmania and moves slowly. Winds should moderate a notch by the late a’noon. We should see size to 2ft, up a notch into the a’noon.

Tiny S swells expected Thurs as a fetch from the low supplies mid period S swell to 2ft under SW tending S/SW winds.

Tiny surf then to end the working week, extending into Sat as high pressure moves over NSW into the Tasman. 

By Sun a small amount of NE windswell should fill in as pre-frontal N’ly winds increase. No great size is expected but by the a’noon some 2ft surf is on the radar with winds shifting N/NW-NW through the day.

Into next week and we should see workable NE windswell to 2-3ft extend into Mon with offshore winds as a frontal system passes to the south. 

It’s unliklely we’ll see any surf from the tropical sources we mentioned on Fri so the next run of surf is expected from the south. 

From mid next week we should see action return to the south as fronts push into the Tasman.

EC has a strong series of fronts suggesting sizey S swells later next week, GFS is more conservative and pushes the timeline further out to late next week or the weekend.

We’ll pencil in a return to seasonal south swells from mid next week and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then!