Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jul 2nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large E/NE swells likely for NETas- building Wed, peaking Thurs, easing Fri
• Fresh SE winds Thurs, tending S’ly and easing
• Offshore winds Fri- W/SW tending NW through the day
• Fun, easing E swell Sat with NW winds
• Small leftovers Sun
• Small, fun NE swells next week, likely Tues, easing then rebuilding Wed into Thurs

Recap

Small surf from the S/SE yesterday in the 2-3ft range. Today has seen increasing E/NE swell building from 3ft to 5-6ft under S-S/SE winds, becoming fresh at times.

This week and next (July2 - July 11)

A vigorous coastal low is now moving N, with a secondary low centre rotating around the primary low before forming a dual-centred system, which then slowly moves away from the NSW coast later tomorrow and through Fri. Gales to severe gales from the S through SE will generate another peak in size later today and through tomorrow from the secondary low slingshotting around the primary centre, well positioned in  the Tasmanian swell window. Winds from the E-E/NE are also still active in the swell window. Coastal lows or ECL’s aren’t uncommon for the East Coast during winter but the secondary low and related Fujiwhara effect makes this event stand out for the duration of severe weather and secondary pulse of large swell generated by this effect.

Plenty of surf yet to come with strong ECL in Tasmanian swell window

In the short run we’ll see another day of large E/NE swell to 5-6ft with fresh SE winds, easing during the day. 

By Fri winds will have turned offshore as the low moves away and high pressure moves to the north of the state. E tending E/SE swell to 5-6ft with bigger sets offers pumping surf under premium conditions.

Into the weekend and Surf will continue trending down with morning light land breezes from the W-W/NW tending to N/NE-NE breezes Sat, more NW Sun as a decaying low and front approach from the W.

Still some fun to be had Sat with size in the 3-4ft range at exposed breaks, dropping through the day.

By Sun we’ll be looking at a minor blend of E/SE swell, small background E swell and minor S wrap all offering up some 2ft sets at open beaches. 

Looks like some small, fun waves next week as a decaying low moves into the Tasman and NE winds feeding into the low supply some small NE swells. Models are still moving around a lot so expected revisions but at this stage expect some fun waves to develop Tues and again into Wed and Thurs. 

Late in the week we’ll see an approaching front and low enter the Tasman sphere of influence and depending on the timing, we may see a late kick in new S swell Fri or into the weekend.

Models mostly indicate this system weakening as it enters the Tasman so we’ll hose down expectations for now and see how it looks Fri.

High pressure over the continent suggests more W’ly outbreaks and S swells medium term. 

Check back Fri for the latest.