Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri June 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny/flat surf over the weekend - possible just rideable NE windswell Sun with NW-N winds
• Workable NE windswell Mon, peaking Tues with fresh N-NW winds, tending W/NW Tues PM
• Gusty W’lies Wed
• S pulses Thurs and Fri
• Small S swells likely to continue into next weekend

Recap

Small S swells yesterday offered a rideable 1-2ft wave under offshore W’ly tending NW’ly winds. Tiny 1-1.5ft today - just rideable on a mal- with W tending NW winds. 

This weekend and next (Jun 20 - 27)

No significant change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure across the interior of NSW will be moving across Southern NSW into the Tasman, bringing settled conditions and a NW flow across Tasmania, tending more N’ly on Sun.

No surf to speak of on Sat with tiny waves expected.

Possibly just a notch bigger with a minor NE windswell from N’ly winds off the Far South Coast down to Bass Strait Sun. Keep expectations low but there could be a 1-2ft wave (at best) on Sun.

High pressure sits in the mid-Tasman at the start of next week, maintaining a useful, broad trade flow through the Coral Sea, and a N-NE flow across temperate NSW and down to Tasmania. We’ll see that N’ly flow start to increase later Mon with some minor NE windswell building to 2ft in the a’noon.

N’lies freshen Tues as the large low/front approaches, tending NW through the a’noon, even W/NW by close of play. We should see an uptick in  NE windswell up into the 3 occ. 4ft range through the a’noon, potentially offering up fun beachies as winds swing more offshore.

Source of NE windswell Tues

By Wed the front will be pushing a fresh W/NW tending W’ly flow across Tasmania. Small NE’ly swells to 2ft will ease through the morning. We may see a minor increase in S swell later Wed at S exposed breaks depending on the timing of gales SE of the Island- but Thurs looks a safer bet. We’ll fine-tune timing on Mon.

We’ll see S swell in the water Thurs, under offshore W tending W/SW then SW winds. Wave models are likely undercooking size at present with proximate and deeper fetches of gales pushing NE into the mid and far southern reaches of the Tasman. We’ll pencil in 3-4ft of surf for Thurs at S exposed breaks and see how it looks Mon. 

Easing swells from the S Fri with offshore winds are expected.

W’ly winds and settled conditions next weekend as another large high moves over NSW and into the Tasman. Models suggest a small blend of S groundswell and minor E/NE’ly swells at this point. 

Further ahead, models have been toying with low pressure development in the Coral Sea or Northern Tasman into the last week of June/first week of July possibly drifting southwards and forming a complex low which could generate sizey swells from the SE-E for Tasmania. Nothing concrete or specific yet, but we’ll keep eyes on any instability and see how it’s shaping up on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!