Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swells Thurs (tiny/flat away from S exposed breaks) with W-NW winds
• Tiny/flat surf into the weekend 
• Workable NE windswell Mon, peaking Tues with fresh N-NW winds, tending W/NW Tues PM
• Gusty W’lies Wed
• Small S pulses Thurs and Fri
• Small S swells likely to continue into next weekend

Recap

NE windswell offered up some 2-3ft surf yesterday,  Cleaning up nicely as winds swung NW through W. That swell has eased right back to tiny today with fresh and gusty SW winds and a small S swell signal to 1ft or so.

This week and next (Jun 16 - 27)

No great change to the outlook since Mon. High pressure is slowly moving over inland NSW, expected to reach the Tasman later today into tomorrow. A weakening low is also moving slowly, tracking SE of Tasmania as it dissipates. There is a trough in the Coral Sea with an associated cloud band which is expected to play a role in focussing Tradewinds which form up later this week on the back of a SE surge. Compared to earlier model runs the trough and E’ly dip aren’t expected to form any major swell generating low pressure through the Coral Sea or South Pacific. The broad SE’ly pattern which sets up in the Coral Sea gets disrupted next week by cold fronts whihc generate surf for NETas but longer term looks to set up again as we move to the end of the month. 

In the short run we’ll see just a small signal of S swell generated by the weak low as it tracks SE of Tas. Size to 1-2ft at S facing beaches and winds shifting back W to NW a high pressure to the north supplies W’ly ridging.

Tiny swells then into Fri with NW winds.

We may see some minor NE windswell wrap from NW winds out of Bass Strait Sat but it’ll be just rideable in the 1-1.5ft range, back to tiny/flat on Sun.

Into next week and we’re still expecting winds to shift N through NW and likely freshen early next week as fronts approach from the W and dominant high pressure drifts eastwards. 

 NE windswell builds later Mon and peaked Tues in the 3ft range depending on how well aligned the local winds turn out as they freshen from the N-NW later Mon into Tues. It’s a broad fetch so even it not well aligned we should see a meaningful swell from it.

By mid week winds should swing hard W’ly as a front passes through Bass Strait and a deep, compact low tracks SE of Tasmania. SW gales adjacent to Tasmania are the main swell sources for Tasmania, with the first pulse of S swell likely Thurs and a stronger signal Fri. 

Nothing too solid at this stage as fetches are poorly aligned and moving quickly through the swell window. We should see surf in the 2ft range Thurs, up a notch Fri. We’ll fine tune size and arrival on Fri.

Further S’ly pulses look likely into the weekend as a slow moving polar low tracks through Tasman Sea longitudes.

There's also a low expected to form NE of the North Island next week- at this stage moving away to the SE as it intensifies before slipping in behinf the North Island. We'll report back Fri to see if we get a little pulse from it before it does so.

High pressure moves into the Tasman during this period, setting up another tradewind flow in the Coral Sea, with light winds over NSW and not much swell potential for NETas.

Check back Fri for the latest.