South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 2)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E’ly swells fading out Thurs/Fri
• Strong W’ly winds Thurs, easing Fri and tending to variable breezes in the a’noon
• Directional S swell across the MNC to North Coast later Wed into Thurs
• S-S/SE swells rebuilding Fri PM, easing into Sat
• Small blend of fun swells Sat with NW winds early, NE in the a’noon
• Small leftovers Sun with N’ly winds
• Babyfood next week with light W/NW-NW winds tending to N-NE breezes

Recap

E’ly swells and offshore winds yesterday supplied good to great surf across the region, with size generally in the 4ft range with bigger sets reported. Today has seen NW-W/NW winds reach gale force across large portions of NENSW (gusts in excess of 45kts at Ballina), with lighter offshore winds in SEQLD. Those winds have made for challenging conditions although E’ly swell have remained in the 3-4ft range on an easing , so there have been some good waves around if you can get out of the wind or are north of the main strength of the flow.

Still some strong sets from the E today with quality dependent on strong offshore/cross-shore winds

This week (July2- Jul 4)

A vigorous coastal low is now moving N, with a secondary low centre rotating around the primary low before forming a dual-centred system, which then slowly moves away from the NSW coast later tomorrow and through Fri. Gales to severe gales from the S through SE will generate another large peak in size later today and through tomorrow from the secondary low slingshotting around the primary centre, focused on Southern/Central NSW with a much smaller payload being delivered north of the Hunter. Coastal lows or ECL’s aren’t uncommon for the NSW Coast during winter but the secondary low and related Fujiwhara effect makes this event stand out for the duration of severe weather and secondary pulse of large swell generated by this effect.

In the short run we’ll see E’ly swells continue to ease with 2 occ. 3ft sets on offer. A new pulse of S’ly swell generated by the winds on the western flank off the low and the slingshotting secondary low looks to fill in the early hours across the MNC, propagating  northwards through the morning and just reaching SEQLD in the a’noon. Expect this pulse to be very S to even S/SW and hence showing a wide variety of wave heights, topping out at 6ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, 3-4ft on regional Points and 2-3ft at S magnets in SEQLD (likely not showing much on the Sunshine Coast). Local winds remain fresh and gusty from the W, lighter on the Sunshine Coast. Periods of NW-W/NW winds are possible in the morning as winds roll off the ranges, although by a’noon they should be veering more W-W/SW. 

Conditions then stabilise Fri AM with early mod W-W/SW winds tending mod SW and then laying down to light/variable breezes in the a’noon as the system tracks further away from the coast and high pressure moves over northern inland NSW. Size will be trending downwards initially before building again in the a'noon across NENSW- so 4-5ft, then easing, then back up to 4-5ft at S facing breaks in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD with a chance of some 3-4ft sets by close of play at S swell masgnets  and negligible S swell north of Cape Moreton. E’ly swells from the retreating infeed will hold some 2ft sets in the mix, becoming softer through the day

This weekend (Jul 5-6)

Surf will continue trending down into the weekend with morning light land breezes from the W-W/NW tending to N/NE-NE breezes Sat, more NW-N/NW Sun as a decaying low and front approach from the W.

Still some fun to be had Sat with size in the 3-4ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, dropping through the day, smaller 2ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches.

By Sun we’ll be looking at a minor blend of S/SE swell, small background E swell and minor S wrap all offering up some 2ft sets at open beaches. 

Next week (July 7 onwards)

Looks like a working week of babyfood next week as a decaying low moves into the Tasman with W-NW winds sweeping across NSW up into SEQLD and no swell sources on tap. Tiny NE swells from the edge of winds feeding into the low are possible but we’re looking at sub 2ft  surf through Mon-Thurs. 

Late in the week we’ll see an approaching front and low enter the Tasman sphere of influence and depending on the timing, we may see a late kick in new S swell Fri or into the weekend.

Models mostly indicate this system weakening as it enters the Tasman so we’ll hose down expectations for now and see how it looks Fri.

High pressure over the continent suggests more W’ly outbreaks and S swells medium term. 

Check back Fri for the latest.