Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri June 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

•  NE windswell peaking Tues with fresh N-NW winds, tending W/NW Tues PM
• Gusty W’lies Wed
• Sizey S Thurs, easing into Fri with winds from the W-NW
• Small S groundswells Sat/Sun with offshore winds
• More S swell next week
• Long range E/NE swell offers inconsistent sets Tues/Wed next week with W’ly winds

Recap

Tiny waves over the weekend, around a 1ft on Sat, almost dead flat on Sun. Today has started small but with increasing NE windswell through the a’noon to 2ft with freshening pre-frontal N’ly winds.

This week and next (Jun 23 - July 4)

High pressure is in the centre of the Tasman with a complex trough, front and low system approaching from south of the Bight. We’ll see pre-fontal N’lies freshen through the short term into tomorrow, tending NW and then hard W’ly through SW’ly on Wed. A retreating trade fetch gets supercharged by a developing trough and low in the South Pacific, reaching maximum intensity between Tongan and Tahitian longitudes. Despite the travel distance to Tasmania, we should see some quality long range E/NE swell from this source, with some size from the south this week as the front and low traverse the Tasman. South groundswell from a polar low is also expected over the weekend.

In the short run we’ll see NE windswell peak tomorrow in the 2-3ft range, with the occ. bigger set under strong N winds, tending NW through the day. There should be some good waves as winds swing NW.

By Wed we’ll see winds swing hard W/NW-W as the front sweeps across the state, then SW later in the day. A steep rise in S swell is likely Wed - mostly generated by gales sling-shotting up from adjacent to Tasmania into the Central Tasman. Expect undersized surf early with directional S swell in the 2-3ft range and NE windswell wrap to 3ft. The trend will be steadily up through the morning as mid period S swell pushes wave heights into the 5-6ft range through the a’noon at S exposed breaks.

Source of S swell Wed

Plenty of size still in the water Thurs morning with mid period S swell to 4-5ft, easing through the day with winds from the W.

Fri looks fun with S tending S/SE swell to 2-3ft and winds remaining offshore as high pressure drifts to the NE of the state.

Into the weekend and as S swells ease from the Tasman Low we’ll see long period S swells from a polar low make landfall. 

Winds should stay light offshore through Sat, with a possibility of variable breezes in the a’noon on Sun.

Sets to 3ft are likely Sat, easing a notch Sun.

Another small pulse of S groundswell is expected Mon to 2-3ft.

A deep low in the South Pacific may send some long range E/NE groundswell as far as Tas next week, with Tues and Wed capable of seeing some very inconsistent 2-3ft sets under offshore winds. 

Check back Wed and we’ll see how that is shaping up.