Monday, 27 November 2023

Most of the infeed into the system and resultant flow off the southern flank of the low is now focussed on Southern NSW and Tasmania (compared to Mondays notes). Large to XL swells this week are expected as the system forms and drifts south.

Friday, 24 November 2023

By Wed we should see another building trend as another trough deepens in Southern NSW/Gippsland and a strong infeed into the trough builds E/NE swells.

Wednesday, 22 November 2023

That trough then deepens o/night Sat into Sun with a building trend in S-S/SE swell under fresh/strong winds from the same direction.

Monday, 20 November 2023

Into the weekend and we should see an increase in NE-E/NE swell on Sat from winds feeding into a trough near the Gippsland coast.

Friday, 17 November 2023

Sun is a different story as strong, long period S swells from a storm force system in the Southern Ocean make landfall.

Wednesday, 15 November 2023

Another deep low is expected to bomb under the continent and send more long period groundswell our way late this weekend under a continuing unstable, trough pattern. 

Monday, 13 November 2023

The continent is unstable with a heat trough over NWWA and more troughs extending from the interior  through to the East Coast. A deep low and powerful frontal system with a long trailing fetch is currently traversing the lower Tasman, generating long period S swells. 

Friday, 10 November 2023

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The N’ly fetch reaches peak strength o/night and into Sat morning with a corresponding peak in NE windswell expected.

Wednesday, 8 November 2023

A weak ridge up the sub-tropics has a lighter E’ly flow with stronger N-NE winds south of the MNC down to the South Coast and Tasmania. We’ll see this pattern persist with increasing NE windswell across NE Tas this week. A strong frontal progression is expected to provide a series of S swells next week. 

Monday, 6 November 2023

The high initially weakens with a lighter onshore flow before re-strengthening as it approaches New Zealand and has the pressure gradient tightened on the western flank by the complex trough systems. That will produce a N’ly flow, expected to increase as the week goes on with increasing NE windswell late in the week and early weekend.