South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon July 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another S'ly swell for Tues, easing slowly Wed, best for Northern NSW open beaches (small in SE Qld) 
• Small background conditions Thurs/Fri
• Chance for a building S/SE tending SE swell over the weekend with small waves across semi-exposed points

Recap

Small E’ly swells provided an undercurrent of 2ft surf to the coast on Saturday, easing a touch on Sunday. But the dominant energy over the weekend were consecutive S’ly swells that built on Saturday morning, eased into the afternoon, rebuilt into Sunday morning and then eased today. South of the border generally reached 4ft at most open south facing beaches over the weekend though there were isolated reports of bigger 5-6ft sets (inline with what was also reported across Southern NSW). SE Qld was as per usual much smaller in size. Conditions have generally been clean each day with offshore winds.

Easing southerly corduroy across the northern Gold Coast Monday afternoon (via our upgraded Narrowneck surfcam)

This week (July 15 - 18)

A strong front pushed off the NSW coast and into the Tasman Sea overnight, and it’s generating a flush of south swell that’ll fill in this evening and provide a nice boost in surf size across Northern NSW on Tuesday.

South swell magnets (south of Byron) should rebuild back up into the 3-4ft range, elsewhere it’ll be smaller and as per usual, most of SE Qld won’t like this direction - though some exposed northern ends should see occasional 2ft+ sets (expect very small waves across the southern GC points and most of the Sunny Coast). 

If anything, we may see a slight lag on this swell in the north (i.e. SE Qld and Far Northern NSW) so if it looks a little undersized at dawn, give it a few hours.

Regardless, Tuesday will be an ideal day of waves for the wide open beaches south of the border, with winds holding from the western quadrant, and clean sunny conditions too.

Wednesday will then see easing southerly swells, with generally light offshore winds.

The synoptics suggest something slightly different - a weak inland trough is expected to push off the Southern NSW coast on Tuesday, forming a small low in the Tasman Sea late in the day, but it will generally develop outside of our swell window, and will quickly become absorbed in the broadscale westerly flow, tracking quickly towards New Zealand. 

We may see a minor reinforcing south swell from this low but overall I doubt it’ll do much more than arrest the easing swell trend. So best estimates are for 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches south of the border early Wednesday, becoming smaller into the afternoon. Expect smaller surf at remaining beaches and also north of the border (best options once again at exposed northern ends). 

However it is worth pointing out that sometimes these kinds of sideband short range south swells from more northern-latitude cut-off lows can over-perform at select south swell magnets (usually close to the border region), but in this case I am a touch skeptical. 

Smaller background surf is expected on Thursday with generally light variable winds. Nothing major is likely surf wise but south swell magnets south of the border should have small rideable options if you’re keen to get wet. Keep an eye out for afternoon northerlies along the Mid North Coast.

Friday looks tricky but there are some interesting things to keep on the radar.

A weak front will push up the Southern NSW coast, which may trigger (with some troughy assistance) a southerly change across some parts of the Northern NSW coast too. Surf prospects remain slim with minor S’ly swell south of the border the best chance of anything rideable. 

More interesting is a potential flukey long period southerly swell, generated by a broad, vigorous storm progression through the Southern Indian Ocean over the weekend, midway between Heard Island and Western Australia. 

This system is right on the periphery of our acute south swell window, and also a heck of a long distance away, and with poor winds a possibility it’s not worth getting too excited about.

However, it could very well supply some very infrequent 2-3ft sets to a handful of reliable south swell magnets from time to time (more likely after lunch, across the Mid North Coast). Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

This weekend (July 19 - 20)

The coastal trough that could bring about a S’ly change for Friday is expected to linger off the coast into Saturday, and may potentially form into a closed low. 

There’s a wide variety of model solutions right now - some very positive for surf prospects, some rather negative - but either way we do have some low-confidence potential for a punchy short range S/SE swell building Saturday, peaking Sunday as the direction goes more to the SE.

The accompanying winds would likely render conditions only suitable for the semi-exposed points, so here’s hoping we see enough size from this system to get them up and running. We’ll have more info on Wednesday.

Otherwise, as mentioned above (for Friday), we may see some flukey long period southerly swell lines across the Northern NSW coast at times, originating from the Southern Indian Ocean. It’s the kind of swell event that’s not really worth working around, but if you have a reliable south swell magnet up your sleeve (and the wind forecast improves from what’s currently progged), it will certainly be worth keeping a close eye on.

Next week (July 21 onwards)

The models are very much split on what will happen with the weekend’s trough-cum-low in the northern Tasman Sea. It’s too early to have any kind of confidence so let’s park that conversation for a few more days.

Otherwise, a strong frontal progression will push into the Tasman Sea mid-week and this looks set to renew southerly swell prospects across the region. 

See you Wednesday!