Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small Sat AM with a better pulse of S swell in the a’noon under W-W/SW winds with light/variable (S-SE) breezes PM
• Pumping Sun AM with solid S swell and offshore W-W/NW winds, size eases PM as winds tend NW
• Small background E swell in the water over the weekend offering very inconsistent sets
• Small leftovers Mon with a late kick in small S swell
• Small S pulse Tues with W tending SW winds
• More small S swells and offshore winds next week
• Winter pattern persists with W’ly winds and small S swells 

Recap

Tiny surf through yesterday with ankle-knee high sets and offshore winds as a front pushed into the Tasman. We’ve got a small flush of S swell today, topping out around 2 occ.3ft at S facing beaches (may show a little more as the tide drops), remaining tiny elsewhere. W’ly winds continue today, reaching mod/fresh paces through the day.

Fun little S swell at S facing beaches- will show more as tide drops

This weekend (Jul 12-13)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure right up over the continent in typical winter positioning with a weak low in the Tasman and a much stronger frontal system poised to sweep up into the Tasman and join the existing low. We’ll see some nice strong S pulses over the weekend as multiple fetches operate on an active sea state. Nothing huge but of winter calibre.

We should see a lovely building trend through tomorrow with initial size to 3ft at S facing beaches building to 4-5ft with some 6ft sets liklely at magnets as better angled and slightly longer period S swell fills in from gales pushing NE past Tasmania later today. Offshore W’lies will tend W/SW-SW then lay down through the a’noon to variable breezes. 

Pumping Sun morning as a consolidated Tasman Low generates sizey S swell which should see more widespread 4-6ft surf (bigger sets possible on the Hunter and other S swell magnets). Offshore W’ly winds tend W/NW then veer more NW through the day and freshen late in the day as a front approaches from the W. We’ll see an easing trend in size likely from mid-morning but nothing too dramatic- still some good quality 4ft surf on offer through the a’noon.

Minor background E swell is not likely to do much and will be unnoticeable at most beaches under the strong S swell regime. Maybe at a few sheltered spots there might be the occ. little set showing.

Next week (July 14 onwards)

Another week favouring S facing beaches as fronts and lows sweep into the Tasman and high pressure remains up over the continent before tracking into sub-tropical waters.

No indications of any great size at this point.

A modest low and front sweeps up into the Tasman Mon. With pre-frontal NW winds then swinging W through SW before tailing off as light S-SE breezes.

Small leftovers Mon morning with a late kick in S swell to 3ft is expected.

Tues looks a better bet with winds shifting back W’ly as another front pushes through with a small low expected to form off the south coast and move eastwards. Size to 3-4ft in the morning eases through the day. 

Models all suggest the low remains weak and broad and moves off to the east without doing much but there is a chance it could deepen and become a more significant swell source- we’ll keep eyes on it over the weekend report back Mon. 

Easing swells Wed with surf dribbling away to tiny through Thurs/Fri.

We may see a stronger frontal intrusion into next weekend- models are mixed so confidence is low.

We’ll pencil in a bog standard S swell next weekend and adjust up or down as we get more clarity next week.

Nothing medium/long term to suggest this typical winter pattern will break so continue to expect lots of offshores and small/medium S swells.

Check back Mon for the latest and until then, have a great weekend!