We’ll see the wind flow strengthen on Sat as a large high slips in under Tasmania and multiple troughs and a cut-off low forming over the interior tighten the pressure gradient proximate to Eastern Tasmania.
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We’ll see an increasing SE-E flow aimed at Tasmania as winds feed into the cut-off low, generating E’ly swells for NETas into the weekend.
E’ly winds feeding into the cut-off low are aimed directly at NETas and will produce sizier swells into Fri.
Expect some revisions on Mon but at this stage we should see a developing E-E/NE flow into the trough, aimed up at NETas, possibly as early as Wed.
There is quite a strong front tracking across the lower Tasman in advance of this high cell, along with a polar low, which will send some useful S swells our way before the high sets up a blocking pattern, which is expected to be reinforced by another large high next week.
We’ll see some small S pulses and NE windswell on the menu this week.
Winds shift more N’ly through Sun, then NW-W/NW and we’ll see some real size as the fetch reaches peak strength through the morning.
Sunday is looking very sizey indeed as the fetch ramps up with low end gales off the coast of Tasmania extending up towards Bass Strait and the Gippsland coast.
Another unstable, troughy week ahead with humid, unstable air over the continent creating a series of troughs, one of which forms a slow moving trough of low pressure off the Mid North Coast which interacts with a weak high pressure cell drifting in the Tasman. That will supply some workable E/NE quadrant swell along with more local E swell.
S’ly groundswell is currently being generated by a slow moving polar low on the far edge of the swell window well to the SW of Tasmania. Most of this swell is better aimed at the southern states and South Pacific targets but we will see some refraction into the East Coast of Tasmania