Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon July 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another S'ly swell for Tues (clean with offshore winds), easing during the day and further into Wed (clean with offshore winds)
• Small background conditions Thurs
• S'ly winds developing Fri, building short range swell later and poss a flukey long range S'ly swell too
• Generally light winds for the weekend with small flukey long range S'ly swells

Recap

Strong southerly swells pushed through over the weekend, offering 4-6ft surf at south facing beaches, Sunday seeing max surf size overall with a few bigger sets across the Hunter region and other reliable south swell magnets. Conditions were nice and clean with offshore winds. Wave heights have eased back this morning from 3-4ft at south facing beaches (slightly bigger Hunter), with continuing clean conditions. 

This week (July 15 - 18)

A strong front pushed into off the NSW coast the Tasman Sea overnight (see below), and it’s generating a strong flush of south swell that’ll fill in this evening and provide a nice boost in surf size across Southern NSW.

Unfortunately, wave heights will likely peak under the cover of darkness and will slowly fade through the day, but early morning should still provide 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches, with smaller waves elsewhere (but the odd bigger bomb across the Hunter). Slightly smaller surf is expected into the afternoon.

Conditions are looking really good too. A weak inland trough is expected to push off the coast tomorrow, freshening W/NW winds before tending W’ly later and easing. A small low will eventually form off the coast late int he day, but it will be located outside of our swell window, and will quickly become absorbed in the broadscale westerly flow, tracking quickly towards New Zealand. So we won't see any swell from it.

Easing size is expected through Wednesday with generally clean conditions under a light offshore breeze. South facing beaches should manage 2-3ft sets (with the usual size caveats elsewhere), but get in early for the most size. 

Smaller background surf is expected on Thursday with generally light variable winds. Nothing major is likely surf wise but south swell magnets should have just-rideable options if you’re keen to get wet. 

Friday looks tricky but there are some interesting things to keep on the radar.

A weak front will push up the coast, bringing a southerly change to the region through the day - probably before lunch south of Sydney, and after lunch to the north (we’ll firm up specifics on Wednesday).

The front will bring about a small short range southerly swell increase (small early, 2-3ft later), but more interesting is a potential flukey long period southerly swell, generated by a broad, vigorous storm progression through the Southern Indian Ocean over the weekend, midway between Heard Island and Western Australia. 

This system is right on the periphery of our acute south swell window, and also a heck of a long distance away, and with poor winds a possibility it’s not worth getting too excited about.

However, it could very well supply some very infrequent 2-3ft sets to a handful of reliable south swell magnets from time to time. In the event Friday’s local wind forecast improves, this could end up being a useful primary swell source. 

This weekend (July 19 - 20)

A fickle surf outlook requires greater scrutiny across flukey swell sources. And there’s a few of them on tap for this weekend.  

Overall, there is no major surf expected this weekend, with our primary swell windows likely to be devoid of activity in the lead up. Conditions look to be generally clean with light variable winds Saturday and early light winds Sunday ahead of a freshening NE breeze into the afternoon.

However, as mentioned above (for Friday), we may see some fluke long period southerly swell lines across the coast at times originating from the Southern Indian Ocean - more likely Saturday, less likely Sunday. It’s the kind of swell event that’s not really worth working around, but if you have a reliable south swell magnet up your sleeve, will certainly be worth keeping a close eye on.

There’s one more swell that may (just) glance the Far South Coast, and perhaps the South Coast at a pinch.

A deep low is modeled to develop E/SE of New Zealand’s South Island on Wednesday, generating energy for the weekend. It’s an impressive system, though will unfortunately remain inside the NZ swell shadow - barely favouring Tasmania’s East Coast for small waves, and with decreasing size prospects as you head north into NSW. 

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Next week (July 21 onwards)

A strong frontal progression approaching from the west and a stationary high in the Tasman Sea look to generate building short range NE swells early next week, probably accompanied with onshore winds.

The backside of this pattern will likely produce the best waves, as winds swing NW (probably around Tuesday), and we can likely expect trailing southerly swells to fill in behind this for the latter part of the week as the entire weather progression moves east towards New Zealand. 

However, the models are in disagreement about the overall pattern so keep your expectations low for now.

See you Wednesday!