Eastern Tasmanian forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed February 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small blend of S and E/NE swells Thurs
• More small E/NE swells filtering down from the tropics Fri into Sat and Sun
• More small E/NEW swells early next week

Recap

Small surf from the E/NE has teased surfed with wave heights in the 1-2ft range yesterday and today. Conditions were clean both mornings under offshore winds with winds getting up from the E/NE today and making a mess of surf although it has whipped up some local NE windswell.

This week and next week (Feb 26 - Mar7)

High pressure is in the Tasman with three tropical cyclones currently on the map. TC Alfred is in the Coral Sea, currently about a 1000km NE of Mackay and slow moving, expected to slowly track southwards from today. TC Rae has sped off SE to the graveyard and TC Seru is located between Vanuatu and Fiji and moving S/SE. In this complex brew,  we’ll see multiple swell trains from the NE-E quadrant, although large swells may be confined to more northerly regions as models firm on a CQ coastal crossing for TC Alfred (still uncertainty over this track!) and the South Pacific cyclones track south-eastward, then eastwards as dissipating systems. NETas will see some smaller surf from these systems as well as NE windswell.

In the short run we’ll see some fun sized NE windswell tomorrow with a trough bringing a S’ly change o/night. Expect 2-3ft surf early easing with some small S’ly windswell in the mix.

Winds shift NW as a front approaches, with a trough bringing a weak S’ly change later in the a’noon. N’ly winds off the south coast of NSW should hold 2ft surf mixed in with some E/NE swell from the tropics.

Into the weekend and we should see variable tending NE-SE winds as a trough hovers about the NE of the state. Only a small blend of swells to 2ft is expected Sat but some of that will be long period E/NE swell which should offer some very inconsistent but long-lined sets.

Similar for Sun but with SW tending SE winds as a trough clears the coast and a new high pressure ridge builds in as high pressure approaches from the Bight.

Into the new week and we should see continuing small, inconsistent surf from the E/NE to 2ft through Mon and into Tues at least. 

Possibly more if TC Alfred tracks southwards into the Northern Tasman. 

A trough brings a S’ly change Thurs possibly with some short range S swell attached to it.

Frontal progressions next weekend may generate some S’ly groundswell although mostly sideband energy is expected. 

Let’s see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then!