South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Babyfood this week with small background E swells with light/mod W/NW-NW winds tending to N-NE breezes
• Moderate S swell filling in Fri
• Fun blend of S swells and small background E swells this weekend with offshore mornings and S-SE breezes
• Easing swells into next week
• More small S pulses medium term with offshore winds- typical winter pattern

Recap

Swells trended steadily downwards over the weekend as the coastal low responsible for last week’s wild weather headed for New Zealand. Sat was still fun across NENSW with clean surf to 3-4ft at S facing beaches under offshore winds, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD at S swell magnets. Sun was down into the 2-3ft range in NENSW, 1-1.5ft in SEQLD and falling with clean conditions early before light NE winds kicked up. Not much left over this morning with 2ft surf on the open beaches in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD, mostly faint background E swell under offshore W-NW winds. A low energy week is ahead. 

Springlike conditions this morning

This week (July 7-11)

High pressure is well up over the centre of the continent with as weak, troughy area of low pressure moving offshore from the south coast dragging a cloud band with it and offering a W’ly flow in it’s wake. That W’ly flow looks to continue through the working week as a series of cold fronts sweep across the SE of the country. Winds will veer NW at times until a front and low push into the lower Tasman Thurs into Fri. Compared to Fridays notes, it’s only expected to deliver a modest payload of S swell although there is still some model divergence and a chance of an upgrade. Longer term, high pressure remains up at typical mid-late winter latitudes with consistent offshore winds and small/medium S pulses on the radar. 

In the short run there’s not much to talk about. Minor E’ly swells from a background fetch in the South pacific keep a minor background signal in the water. Most beaches will be tiny but conditions will be clean under W’ly-SW’ly winds which will tend NW and freshen though the day. 

Tiny surf through Wed and Thurs although models are suggesting E swell just lifts a notch- although remaining very inconsistent and mostly tiny a few sets in the 2-3ft range are possible at open beaches with long waits for sets. Given the offshore conditions, worth a look around.

We’ll see a more significant increase in S swell on Fri across NENSW under W/SW-W winds tending to light a’noon seabreezes. Models are still a bit divergent with EC continuing to suggest a stronger fetch which would see surf develop in the 3-5ft range across NENSW later Fri, remains less than 2ft at SEQLD S facing beaches. The more modest GFS scenario is a notch smaller, in the 3ft+ range at S facing beaches in NENSW, 1-2ft in SEQLD where background E swell continues to supply a small, surfable wave. We’ll see how it looks on Wed but there will be surfable waves Fri.

This weekend (Jul 12-13)

Winds look good for the weekend, at least for Sat with high pressure drifting up over NENSW and a weak ridge supplying light offshore W-SW winds tending to SE breezes (stronger on the Sunshine Coast). Plenty of workable S swell Sat, with size at least in the 3-4ft range in NENSW, depending on how the low evolves we may get an upgrade. Pencil in fun waves at S facing spots in NENSW, small in SEQLD. Mid period E-E/SE swell from a low forming on the edge of the swell window and slowly retreating away should hold some 2 occ. 3ft sets.

Depending on how the low moves across the Tasman we may see a secondary pulse Sun from a slight stalling. Still low confidence in this outcome but we should see see at least 3-4ft of S swell in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD with winds light/mod W-SW tending S-SE in the a’noon under a weak ridge. Mid period long range E/SE swell holds some inconsistent 2-3ft sets with very long waits.

Next week (July 14 onwards)

More of the same next week with a W’ly pattern expected through the first half of the week as high pressure sits up over the continent and moves NE before entering the Tasman. Easing S swells through Mon with offshore winds.

We will see a new S swell or series of S swells early/mid week as fronts or a low push into the Tasman. Low confidence in specifics due to model divergence with GFS the more bullish outcomes. Nothing suggests too much size at the stage- 3-4ft as a ballpark figure in NENSW, 2ft in SEQLD, but we’ll adjust as we move through the week. A compact low tracking SE of Tas Sun/Mon may supply a nice pulse of S swell Tues/Wed with another frontal system Tues/Wed supplying reinforcing energy later Wed into Thurs.

Just a typical settled winter period for the Tasman with small S swells favouring south of the border, but things can change quickly so we’ll keep eyes on it and report back Wed.

Seeya then.