Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday July 16th)

Best Days: Surf Coast this afternoon through Sunday, locations to the east Monday/Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mod-large SW groundswell for tomorrow AM, easing
• Strong NW tending W/NW then late W/SW winds
• Large W/SW groundswell for Fri, easing later with mod-fresh NW winds (possibly N-N/NE later to the east)
• Drop in swell Sat AM ahead of a large, reinforcing W/SW grounswell into the PM under strengthening N/NW-N tending N/NW winds
• Easing mix of mod-large swells Sun with strong but easing NW tending W/NW winds
• Easing surf Mon with mod-fresh N/NE winds
• Smaller Tue with strong N/NE winds

Recap

The swell backed off a little from Monday into yesterday with great conditions across the Surf Cost reefs along with 3ft+ of swell. Most other spots were wind affected and not great.

This morning is smaller but we’re due to see some new mid-period swell building through today, discussed in more detail below.

This week and weekend (Jul 17 - 20)

Up, up, up.

From this afternoon through the coming days we’re expected to see the swell increasing in both size and power as a strong progression of Southern Ocean storms produces multiple pulses of moderate to large groundswell.

This afternoon’s increase will be the weakest, that being mid-period energy generated by the remnants of a strong low linked to tomorrow’s first pulse of groundswell, moving through last night while generating a fetch of W/SW winds.

Building surf to 3ft to possibly 4ft is likely before dark on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east as winds hold from the NW.

Looking at tomorrow though and the first pulse of SW groundswell generated by a strong low spawning off an expansive Southern Ocean frontal system around the Heard Island region is due to peak. It’s due overnight tonight, with tomorrow morning coming in at 4-5ft+ across the Surf Coast with 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets to the east.

The swell is due to ease through the day, though some new mid-period swell for the afternoon may halt this trend ahead of our larger W/SW groundswell into Friday.

This swell is being generated by a secondary, slightly stronger low pushing in, under Western Australia today, with it sitting a touch more north in latitude. Fetches of severe-gale W/SW winds are due to be projected east through our swell window, producing a swell that will arrive with a touch more west in it, coming in less consistent across the Surf Coast. Size wise we should see larger 6ft surf with 8ft+ waves to the east, easing a touch later in the day.

One third and final pulse of W/SW groundswell is then due on Saturday afternoon, reversing the easing trend from the morning. This will be produced by a third frontal system pushing in right on the tail of the current low passing under WA, with severe-gale W/NW winds due to generate a large W/SW groundswell to 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east into the afternoon.

There may be some additional, weaker mid-period swell in the mix from the remnants of the storm moving through Saturday afternoon, but we’ll review this on Friday.

Looking at the local conditions and a strong NW tending W/NW breeze is due tomorrow, possibly shifting W/SW later afternoon, with Friday being the pick of it under moderate to fresh NW winds. To the east there is still a good chance for winds to tend N-NNE later afternoon but check back here Friday for one more look.

On Saturday, strong N-N/NW tending N/NW winds will create tricky conditions, with Sunday coming in nice and clean under strong but easing NW tending W/NW winds.

Size wise the mix of swells from Saturday afternoon look to ease back from 4-5ft and 6ft+ respectively west and east of Melbourne Sunday.

Into next week, the swell from the weekend will be on a steady decline with N/NE winds due Monday, stronger N/NE Tuesday ahead of the next approaching mid-latitude storm. This doesn’t look great for swell generation at this early stage but may dip south-east bringing some new W/SW swell mid-late week. More on this Friday.