South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon July 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small background conditions Thurs/Fri
• Chance for a building S/SE tending SE swell over the weekend with small waves across semi-exposed points
• Plenty of E/SE swell next week with waves on beachies and points as low drifts through Northern Tasman
• Building odds for a more significant E swell as low reintensifies in the South Pacific next week- check back Fri for updates

Recap

A fresh pulse of S’ly swell offered good to really good surf in NENSW with reports of surf in the 4-5ft range at the best S swell magnets, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. More E’ly angled swells still showed 3ft sets on the Sunshine Coast yesterday. Conditions were primo under offshore to light/variable breezes all day. S swells have eased back today with a few 2 occ. 3ft sets at S swell magnets in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD. Perfect winter conditions with light offshore breezes tending to light SW-SE breezes. 

Long lines on the Sunshine Coast yesterday

This week (July 16 - 18)

All the action is under the continent at the moment with strong frontal activity generating plenty of swell for the southern states. The Tasman Sea is under the sway of weak pressure gradients as a decaying high pressure system sits off the NSW coast and a trough moves offshore from the Far South Coast. Another trough through the NENSW interior is expected to move offshore Fri and form a weak surface low off the NorthNSW or SEQLD coast. We'll see plenty of surf surf from this system initially but there is broad model agreement we’ll see this low deepen and develop into a more powerful system mid/late next week as it drifts into a position north of the North Island. Best case scenario is a quality E’ly groundswell event from this system. In the interim we’re looking at mostly flukey swell sources to supply a rideable wave. 

In the short run we’ll see  only small leftovers from the S. Magnets in NENSW should still be hoovering up a few 2ft sets with tiny surf elsewhere. Light morning winds look to tend to E/NE-NE breezes as winds feeding the surface trough. It is an unstable pattern so we may see winds swirl around at times.

We’ll see conditions deteriorate Fri as the trough deepens into a low off the North Coast with early N’ly winds shifting S then S/SE at mod paces. Only tiny surf to start with some short range S-S/SE swell filling in to the 2ft range during the a’noon. There’s a slim chance S magnets in NENSW may see some traces of S groundswell but given the expected S’ly flow it’s not likely to offer much in the way of surf potential. 

This weekend (July 19 - 20)

Winds still look OK for the weekend with offshore winds both mornings, tending to mod S-S/SE breezes during the day. We may still need to tweak that on Fri as a broad surface low forms off the North Coast.

Generally speaking that low should be the main swell source of the weekend although only small waves are expected at this stage. A mix of S and E/SE swells Sat in the 1-2ft range is expected. Long period S swell traces may show some 2 occ. 3ft sets at the best S swell magnets in NENSW but they’ll be few and far between if they do show. 

Depending on how the low winds up a little more SE-E/SE swell should show on Sun- likely pushing up into the 2-3ft range through the day. 

Next week (July 21 onwards)

Eyes to the east next week as low pressure sits in the Tasman. Expect revisions over wind as get into the nitty gritty next week but the basic outline of a broad low forming in the Northern Tasman has medium confidence attached to it. High pressure moves into Tasman next week with a ridge along the sub-tropical coast bringing light/mod SE winds and offshore W-SW mornings. 

With a reasonably broad fetch of SE-E/SE winds in the Tasman early next week we should see E/SE swell develop further into Mon, building into the 3-4ft range and hovering around that size for a few days, depending on how the low behaves. A fun round of surf across the Points and beachies looks likely for most of next week. 

The big question will be the next incarnation of the low as it drifts N-NE of the North island into Fijian longitudes and intensifies as it does so. Current modelling suggests a sufficient intensification and slowing of eastwards movement to generate a significant E’ly swell favouring the sub-tropics for size. 

We’d expect an initial downward trend into next weekend and if the situation plays out favourably an increase in E swell possibly as early as Sun in the sub-tropics,  with potential for size in the 5-6ft range in the sub-tropics, 4-5ft further south. Those are low confidence numbers this far out so expect adjustments either up (hopefully) or downwards as we get more model guidance. It does look increasingly likely we’ll see a winter E swell event, as we have done for all the La Niña winters from 2020 onwards. We’re currently in a neutral phase but still showing the signs of the recent Nina event. 

Still a long way off, so we’ll see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then.