Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri June 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S groundswells Sat/Sun with offshore winds Sat, S'ly change Sun PM
• Long range E/NE swell offers inconsistent sets from Mon, peakingTues/Wed next week with light SW-SE winds
• Dynamic outlook with ECL in Tasman and large E/NE swells likely for NETas- building Wed, peaking Thurs, easing Fri
• Check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Fun sized NE windswell yesterday to 2-3ft has maintained size or even increased into today with fresh W/NW-W winds as a front passes over the state and a low tracks NE from below the Island. S swells are building to 4-5ft this a’noon.

This weekend and next (Jun 25 - July 4)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A vast area of high pressure is across the south of the continent with a Tasman Low approaching New Zealand. Over the weekend the high will slowly slide over southern NSW with a weakening ridge along the east coast and gentle W’ly ridging across Tasmania. In the South Pacific a very broad tradewind fetch enhanced by a tropical low is now dissipating slowly after days of swell generation. 

In the short run, we’ll see small S/SE leftovers and S groundswell wrap  to 1-2ft through tomorrow with offshore winds.

Similar winds Sun morning before a S’ly change in the a’noon as a weak front and trough cross the Island. Tiny surf to start with some very small E/NE swells offering up a meagre 1-2ft wave very infrequently.

OK, we’re starting to get more clarity on next week’s synoptic situation which is looking increasingly dynamic so expect further revisions over the weekend or on Mon. 

The gist of it is a coastal trough extending along the NSW Coast up into SEQLD and a tropical Coral Sea trough merging with an inland upper trough fed by tropical moisture from the Arafura Sea. A dominant high sits in the Bight as a slow moving anchor to these synoptic features. 

Through Mon both the coastal and Coral Sea troughs deepen with a strong and broad E/NE-NE infeed into a developing surface low (possibly some variant of ECL) late Mon o/night into Tues.

Tas will see a small blend of S and E/NE swells Mon to 1-2ft with light S/SE winds.

E/NE swells from the South Pacific fetch look to build a notch Tues with inconsistent 2-3ft sets under SW winds early tending light S/SE through the day.

By Wed we’ll see swells from the ECL start to fill in with mid-period E/NE swell building to 3-4ft through the day. 

Thurs should be pumping with solid swells from the E/NE in the 6ft+ range and offshore winds.

Size settles into Fri depending on how quickly the low moves away from the coast. 

Confidence is now moderate-high for this event get your plans ready for some pumping days next week.

We’ll come back Mon and see how it’s shaping up.

Until then, have a great weekend!