Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long range E/NE swell offers inconsistent sets from Mon, peakingTues/Wed next week with light SW-SE winds
• Dynamic outlook with ECL in Tasman and large E/NE swells likely for NETas- building Wed, peaking Thurs, easing Fri
• Another chunky E/NE swell likely next week

Recap

Only tiny surf over the weekend with both days barely surfable. Today is slightly larger in the 1-1.5ft range with SW tending variable breezes. 

This week and next (Jun 30 - July 11)

The Tasman Sea is poised to explode into storminess with a pair of troughs now in action. A Coral Sea trough deepens into a small low and becomes continuous with a NSW coastal trough which deepens today and forms an ECL over the next 12-24hrs. By first light tomorrow morning and ECL or variant thereof will be positioned off the lower end of the MNC, likely due east of Seal Rocks. Areas to the north of this low will be receiving W’ly to W/SW’ly gales to severe gales (storm force gusts possible) with winds moderating north of Coffs Harbour  while to the south we’ll see a narrow band of S’ly to SW’ly gales establish southwards to Ulladulla.  Winds on the south-east to north-east flanks of the low will be gale force E to E/NE infeeds, extending out into the Tasman and Southern Coral Sea, aimed at Central/Southern NSW and down to Tasmania.

In the short run we’ll see light S/SE winds under a weak high pressure ridge with some long range E/NE swell offering up inconsistent 2ft surf.

By Wed the gales infeeding into the low and a secondary centre send a more powerful E/NE swell to Tasmania (see below). Expect size to build to 5-6ft during the day with mod S/SE-SE winds, fresh at times.

Surf stays large from the E into Thurs as a secondary low slingshots around the first low and aims up more E’ly gales at Tasmania. We’ll see at least 6ft of swell but surf quality will be marred by continuing SE winds.

Winds should improve Fri as a trough moves NE of the state with winds shifting W-NW. Thats the day with strong E tending E/SE swell to 5-6ft easing a notch through the day.

Into the weekend and size ramps down steadily as the ECL moves away across the Tasman. Still some 3-4ft sets Sat morning under W-NW winds, easing further to 2-3ft through the day.

Small leftovers to 2ft or less on Sun.

Another swell to get frothed on next week. A broad low moves off the South Coast and tracks south, aiming swell generating winds at Tasmania that are likely to generate another solid chunky E/NE swell building Mon, peaking Tues and easing Wed. At this stage the best winds look like occurring either late Tues or Wed as the swell drops.

Plenty to focus on short term with the upcoming ECL so check back Wed for the latest.