COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:07pm
burleigh wrote:

Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me.
https://twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1463629577926766599?ref_src=twsrc...

Did you bother to fact check if the stats were vaxxed or unvaxxed?
Off course you didn't.

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Fliplid Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:18pm

@ burleigh : "Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me."

A closer look at the graphs shows a steady decrease in infections and hospitalisations from mid October then a bit of a spike in numbers after the protests. Seems fairly evident that the vaccine is working.

Just guessing that the spike from the protests would be of unvaccinated people, considering their opposition to the vaccine.

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Stok Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:25pm
burleigh wrote:

Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me.
https://twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1463629577926766599?ref_src=twsrc...

Thankfully, no one's asking you.
But anyway, all but the most idiotic of people now haven't put 2 & 2 together when it comes to deaths lagging case numbers. Also, we have now completely opened up, and are having large gatherings and house visits. Cases will go up, probably deaths too.

It's funny, rewind back a few weeks and the rhetoric was about how we'll be locked down for ever. Now we've opened up and there's something new to complain about - who would've thought?

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Supafreak Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:56pm

What I’m not understanding is if everytime there’s a positive case , what’s going to be the response ? Do all known contacts immediately get locked down with police enforcing those involved remain in house, hotel, caravan park etc etc . Is this what learning to live with covid involves ? Not saying if you test positive you should be free to roam about, just that this Byron episode won’t be the last . When Qld fully opens up and cases increase does everyone just go to the quarantine camps ? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-24/byron-bay-backpackers-in-lockdown...

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Patrick Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:00pm

"This is a nuanced decision" (whether to have your young child vaccinated or not).
.


.

It appears in other countries that 12 year olds are given the same dose as an adult. Is that also true in Australia?

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blindboy Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:03pm

supa Byron has a low vaccination rate so that is probably a factor. In other areas there will probably be fewer restrictions.

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Blowin Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:14pm
blindboy wrote:

supa Byron has a low vaccination rate so that is probably a factor. In other areas there will probably be fewer restrictions.

Ironically enough, Byron would have far lower levels of obesity amongst its population than most other areas.. Considering that obesity is a greater determinate of severe covid than basically anything besides extreme old age, it’ll be interesting to see how much the community is impacted by the virus. Also quite a young average population you’d think.

Stay healthy people of Byron!

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Supafreak Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:21pm
blindboy wrote:

supa Byron has a low vaccination rate so that is probably a factor. In other areas there will probably be fewer restrictions.

The article didn’t mention if the female from Victoria was vaccinated , minor but important detail . It also said she was a guest but other guests say she was staff and had probably been in every room.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:51pm
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me.
https://twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1463629577926766599?ref_src=twsrc...

Did you bother to fact check if the stats were vaxxed or unvaxxed?
Off course you didn't.

Seems as though your third vaccine has affected your brain. Victoria dont release those stats Roadkill, which is an answer in itself.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:54pm
Fliplid wrote:

@ burleigh : "Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me."

A closer look at the graphs shows a steady decrease in infections and hospitalisations from mid October then a bit of a spike in numbers after the protests. Seems fairly evident that the vaccine is working.

Just guessing that the spike from the protests would be of unvaccinated people, considering their opposition to the vaccine.

Of course, blame the protests. Who do you watch in the morning? Koshie or Stephanovic?

Look closely at ICU patients compared to cases.

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bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:55pm

Enjoy your popcorn Goofyfoot. I just had a great surf :-P

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Patrick0710 Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:07pm

The Australian Defence Force has rejected “wild” social media claims that it’s forcibly vaccinating Indigenous Northern Territorians against Covid-19.

The territory detected one new case overnight, bringing the outbreak to 52 cases after a teenager from Binjari Aboriginal community tested positive.

“This shows us the hard lockdown is working, and caring for close contacts in quarantine is working,” chief minister Michael Gunner said on Thursday.

It comes as the ADF launches a public relations blitz following colourful and false Facebook posts by various groups and individuals about the military’s involvement in the Top End’s pandemic response.

Some of the posts allege infected Aboriginal people are being forcibly transferred to quarantine facilities while likening them to the stolen generation.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:08pm

For all you MSM lovers out there, it appears that QLD governemnt has revoked majority of its covid plan after the 17th December. Why is this not covered ONCE?

Scroll down the link to see

https://www.covid19.qld.gov.au/government-actions/covid-safe-checklist-f...

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dawnperiscope Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:12pm

Byron is 80% vaccinated, hardly low. They've been an easy target from the beginning

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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:13pm
bluediamond wrote:

Enjoy your popcorn Goofyfoot. I just had a great surf :-P

Don’t forget to work on your critical thinking as well as your surfing BD.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:14pm
dawnperiscope wrote:

Byron is 80% vaccinated, hardly low. They've been an easy target from the beginning

imagine getting vaccinated for your freedoms then being locked inside a hostel from 1 positive case.
I guess its better than being taken away by the army to a covid camp though.

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bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:17pm

Andy, if you saw me surf, you'd agree i should put that first.
But appreciate your last little swipe so thanks.
Here's this video again. I'd recommend watching it with an open mind and see where you sit in the bigger picture.
Would love to chat more but gotta scoot off to work lovey.

&t=512s

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Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:35pm
burleigh wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me.
https://twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1463629577926766599?ref_src=twsrc...

Did you bother to fact check if the stats were vaxxed or unvaxxed?
Off course you didn't.

Seems as though your third vaccine has affected your brain. Victoria dont release those stats Roadkill, which is an answer in itself.

Yet you choose to assume and post in such a way that they were vaxxed and the vax wasn't working?..to post like that suits your agenda and misinformation spread.
Which is also, an answer in itself.

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Supafreak Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:33pm
burleigh wrote:
dawnperiscope wrote:

Byron is 80% vaccinated, hardly low. They've been an easy target from the beginning

imagine getting vaccinated for your freedoms then being locked inside a hostel from 1 positive case.
I guess its better than being taken away by the army to a covid camp though.

Under the current rules , wouldn’t the infected person have to be vaccinated in order to travel to Byron from Victoria ? And if she is a staff member also be fully vaccinated in order to work in hospitality ? Please correct me if I’m wrong , probably the reason the ABC article didn’t mention it.

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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:35pm
bluediamond wrote:

Andy, if you saw me surf, you'd agree i should put that first.
But appreciate your last little swipe so thanks.

I've no doubt that you surf better than me BD!

But the point is, when I read your posts from around 2300 last night I was a bit worried. And no I'm not having a dig at you.
Beware the rabbit hole, it certainly sounds like it's not doing you any favours.

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Fliplid Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:45pm

Burleigh this chart shows the daily case numbers and seems there has been a steady number of cases through the month, so maybe you're correct and it wasn't the protests.

https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data

"Who do you watch in the morning? Koshie or Stephanovic?" Neither, mornings are the best part of the day so I don't waste it watching tv.

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blindboy Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:45pm

Now we know where the usual suspects get their bullshit from. Clive debunked.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/where-clive-palmer-was-wrong-wit...

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Stok Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:46pm
Supafreak wrote:

What I’m not understanding is if everytime there’s a positive case , what’s going to be the response ? Do all known contacts immediately get locked down with police enforcing those involved remain in house, hotel, caravan park etc etc . Is this what learning to live with covid involves ? Not saying if you test positive you should be free to roam about, just that this Byron episode won’t be the last . When Qld fully opens up and cases increase does everyone just go to the quarantine camps ? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-24/byron-bay-backpackers-in-lockdown...

The rules around this have eased substantially in Victoria.
There's no police enforcement at all.

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shortenism Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 3:09pm

Country music cluster all vaccinated https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-23/country-music-covid-cluster-emerg...

Rates of infection in the UK are higher amongst the vaccinated than unvaccinated for every age cohort above <30. Locking down based on cases is absurd.

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GreenJam Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 3:09pm

Palaszcuk out pandering her misinformation again today - 'this virus will hunt down the unvaccinated', yeah right...

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shortenism Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 3:17pm

More MSN garbage being exposed. The mainstream went nuts trying to nail 'anti-vaxxers' for the attack on MP Andy Meddick's daughter because of his vaccination views.

And now hiding on page 5 admission that the police investigation into the assault on crossbench MP Andy Meddick's daughter has found no evidence she was targeted because of her fathers political views.

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indo-dreaming Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 3:40pm
shortenism wrote:

More MSN garbage being exposed. The mainstream went nuts trying to nail 'anti-vaxxers' for the attack on MP Andy Meddick's daughter because of his vaccination views.

And now hiding on page 5 admission that the police investigation into the assault on crossbench MP Andy Meddick's daughter has found no evidence she was targeted because of her fathers political views.

Off course not she was out initially spraying over anti vaxer posters, now im no fan of anti vaxers, but you are asking for trouble spraying over anyones posters, and quite obviously she wouldn't have just done one poster, you can bet she was doing it to any anti vaxer poster she saw.

She then thew the can at someone who threw it back at her, off course she claims she threw the can on the ground, FFS what crap, if it had paint in it she wouldn't just throw it on the ground and there is no excuse to just throw cans on the ground anyway.

Not to mention it's illegal to carry spray paint without good reason, they claim she had it for art purposes, what a load of crap.

BTW. her father is the biggest fuckwitt ever.

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blindboy Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 3:41pm

shortmemory posts the same nonsense again. How many times do you need to have something explained before it sticks? It must be the 50th time some dodo has posted the stat that more vaccinated than unvaccinated were infected......I mean thick or what? With numeracy skills like that you wouldn't put them.behind the counter at the local servo.

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Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 3:42pm
shortenism wrote:

More MSN garbage being exposed. The mainstream went nuts trying to nail 'anti-vaxxers' for the attack on MP Andy Meddick's daughter because of his vaccination views.

And now hiding on page 5 admission that the police investigation into the assault on crossbench MP Andy Meddick's daughter has found no evidence she was targeted because of her fathers political views.

Actually, it was Andy Meddick who straight away said his daughter was targeted because of his politics.
He used his daughter for his political gain. Says a lot about him really.

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Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 3:44pm

Brutus...care to comment? You called my name re this..and now, your great mate has been found out?

What say you now? hey brutus.

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brutus Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 4:33pm

roadkill , I know it's all about you, so Andy has been targetted for years because of his stand on stopping duck hunting...a lot of threats ...

So he has been found out , what, that his daughter wasn't assaulted because of political BS ???

I really don't care about the politics I just know Andy as a really good bloke and he has helped surfers try and stop development at Bells , was also pretty active during the Fight for the Bight campaign.......so what's your problem again?

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happyppl Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 4:48pm
old-dog wrote:

So our S.A. borders are now open and thousands of infected dirty stinking viccos are flooding in eager to leave their dirty nappies and shit paper strewn all over the coast. Oh well there goes xmas, it was good while it lasted. Should have followed W.A.s lead.

haha u2 fraser g, it's those "blind mullets" u have to look out for!
seriously though our borders are opening and where are the toilets at these surf spots?
we have tourist ministers and beauraccrats, state, federal and local who allow these unhygenic conditions who don't want to know about it.
they dole out grants for boardwalks and viewing platforms even bitumise roads....but no toilets.
I assume you are both "local midcoasters" (allmostcoast) used the public toilets at seaford (rise) lately? wash hands, leave and open exit door, why bother wash hands?? allso employees at chemist! and food stores etc have to use these facilities.
hey sn crew same where u live?
oh and don't bother bringin it up with local member he won"t reply.
oz first world country third world public facilities or non at all...wot a disgrace and 2 yrs into a pandemic!...same asiteverwasyoumayaskyourself.

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Fraser G Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 5:08pm

No not from the Mid...surfed it as a grom...Is there any place better for a grom surfwise?Christies stormwater was as dangerous as Wart Berin down at you at Mach 10....

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adam12 Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 5:10pm

Back in the 80's I was a big anti-faxxer.
No way I was getting one.
History proved me right.

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 5:36pm

Back in the 80s I was against mandates. History has proven me wrong and now I don’t have a problem with bromances.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 5:40pm
blindboy wrote:

Now we know where the usual suspects get their bullshit from. Clive debunked.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/where-clive-palmer-was-wrong-wit...

Ahhh the misinformation.... AGAIN.

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overthefalls Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 5:46pm

Hey Burleigh, where is the misinformation in that article?

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troppo dichotomy Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 5:50pm

so you like a man's date?

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 5:53pm
overthefalls wrote:

Hey Burleigh, where is the misinformation in that article?

1: testing - Read the packaging
2: Transmission/viral load/
3: this quote is good: "Melbourne’s ICUs are filled with critically ill unvaccinated patients" 66% are not "fully" vaccinated.
4: Longterm side effects are NOT known.
5: It is 100% coercion
6: a very conservative estimate of Melbourne protests is 150,000 - this article is stating it was 10,000.

Basically the whole article

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overthefalls Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 5:53pm

Nah, Troppo, I’m not into blokes’ dates, or womens’ for that matter, but I’ve got nothing against those that prefer the backdoor.

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overthefalls Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:00pm

Burleigh, would you be willing to sit down with a medical professional and dispute the first four claims?

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happyppl Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:03pm
Fraser G wrote:

No not from the Mid...surfed it as a grom...Is there any place better for a grom surfwise?Christies stormwater was as dangerous as Wart Berin down at you at Mach 10....

don't get it? ...wart berin down at you at mach 10?? please explain.
was expecting a torrent of support or vigilanty rant about poopers in the bush. ha.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:26pm
overthefalls wrote:

Burleigh, would you be willing to sit down with a medical professional and dispute the first four claims?

There are LOADS of medical professionals that will agree with me. Just not the ones controlled by AHPRA and threatened with deregistration if they do not comply with the government

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old-dog Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:44pm

@ happyppl Actually I was referring to the SA west coast and yorkes being over run by Viccos. I spend every xmas over there and last year you couldn't find a park at some spots due to all the east coast hipster types. I think FG may have been referring to a hot local named Wart who used to surf Y steps. BTW the almost coast is down South at Victor Harbour due to plenty of swell but no decent setups.

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Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:45pm
burleigh wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Burleigh, would you be willing to sit down with a medical professional and dispute the first four claims?

There are LOADS of medical professionals that will agree with me. Just not the ones controlled by AHPRA and threatened with deregistration if they do not comply with the government

Psssstt. Naturopaths and Instagram clowns like Pete Evans aren't medical professionals.

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Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:54pm
brutus wrote:

roadkill , I know it's all about you, so Andy has been targetted for years because of his stand on stopping duck hunting...a lot of threats ...

So he has been found out , what, that his daughter wasn't assaulted because of political BS ???

I really don't care about the politics I just know Andy as a really good bloke and he has helped surfers try and stop development at Bells , was also pretty active during the Fight for the Bight campaign.......so what's your problem again?

No problem brutus….I am just replying to you bringing this clown and his daughter into the conversation a couple of days ago.

Now we know ya mate has been caught out and his daughter was as far as I can tell vandalising on public property, assaulting someone (she threw the can, ran off crying when the person retaliated and had to use taxpayers public hospital resources..

But he is your mate so turn the other cheek?

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Patrick0710 Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:00pm

Aboriginal elders, health organisations and frontline workers in the Northern Territory’s Covid outbreak have lashed out at false information about public health measures on social media, with the NT chief minister blaming the misinformation on “tinfoil hat wearing tossers, sitting in their parents’ basements in Florida”.

Over the past few days false claims have been circulating online that Aboriginal people from Binjari and Rockhole were being forcibly removed from their homes and taken to enforced quarantine in Howard Springs, and people including children were being forcibly vaccinated.

None of these claims are true, according to the Aboriginal Medical Services Alliance Northern Territory (AMSANT), the local Aboriginal health services and community leaders.

On Thursday, the chief minister, Michael Gunner, laid into “conspiracy theorists” online, blaming overseas groups for the misinformation.

“Hello to all the conspiracy theorists overseas watching this. Please get a life,” Gunner told a media briefing on Thursday. There are ridiculous, untrue rumours about the ADF’s involvement. As we all know, they aren’t carrying weapons – they are carrying fresh food for people.

“Ninety-nine-point-nine-nine per cent of the BS that is flying around on the internet about the Territory is coming from flogs outside the Territory – mostly America, Canada and the UK, people who have nothing better to do than make up lies about us because their own lives are so small and so sad.

“If anybody thinks that we are going to be distracted or intimidated by tinfoil hat wearing tossers, sitting in their parents’ basements in Florida, then you do not know us Territorians,” he said.

The Jawoyn traditional owners of Binjari and Rockhole said they were “very hurt by the untrue comments being made in the media and social media” about their situation.

“We have been treated with a lot of respect and appreciate all the support being given by these support personnel people. We are in lockdown because we’re in the biggest fight of our lives. We’re trying to keep safe. We’re trying to do the right thing by the community and Katherine,” they said in a statement.

“We don’t need people out there creating another flood for us. We don’t appreciate outside people making comments that are untrue. People on social media saying that our people are being mistreated need to realise their comments are hurting the very people they claim to care about. We want people to respect our privacy and show respect for our feelings,” they said.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:01pm
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Burleigh, would you be willing to sit down with a medical professional and dispute the first four claims?

There are LOADS of medical professionals that will agree with me. Just not the ones controlled by AHPRA and threatened with deregistration if they do not comply with the government

Psssstt. Naturopaths and Instagram clowns like Pete Evans aren't medical professionals.

You're extra special today roadkill. What has your third vaccine done to you? Your body must be screaming at your stupidity that it didnt work the first two times why do you think its going to work the third?

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:07pm
burleigh wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Burleigh, would you be willing to sit down with a medical professional and dispute the first four claims?

There are LOADS of medical professionals that will agree with me. Just not the ones controlled by AHPRA and threatened with deregistration if they do not comply with the government

Psssstt. Naturopaths and Instagram clowns like Pete Evans aren't medical professionals.

You're extra special today roadkill. What has your third vaccine done to you? Your body must be screaming at your stupidity that it didnt work the first two times why do you think its going to work the third?

It’s good to be extra special..thank you. And you are at your usual level. :)

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Fraser G Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:14pm

No not from the Mid...surfed it as a grom...Is there any place better for a grom surfwise?Christies stormwater was as dangerous as Wart Berin down at you at Mach 10....