COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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gsco Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:41am

with that scatterplot it looks like we're playing the game of "spot the confounding factor in the data"

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:52am

WHO calls special meeting to discuss new Covid variant found in South Africa with ‘a large number of mutations’. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/25/who-calls-special-meeting-to-discuss-new.... https://fortune.com/2021/09/15/south-africa-covid-mutations-variant-hiv-...

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:50am

It says a lot about the blind devotion to prevailing media narrative when the established scientific fact of 80% of severe covid outcomes being amongst the obese and an interesting graph of covid mortality plotted against varying rates of obesity in different countries is greeted by a gormless “ So what? That’s irrelevant.”

Zero desire to improve the situation or consider any possibility beyond that dictated to them by Kochie on Sunrise.

More proof that it’s just as much a cult as it is a health situation.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:51am

“Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid”

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 6:53am

“Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid”

Go get your 89th jab bloke. Then back in your Henny Penny bunker.

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bonza Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:30am

"That’s some hardcore literal gaslighting there Bonza"?

You don't remember them saying that? You think those links i provided are bogus?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:40am

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

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san Guine Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:45am
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Burleigh, would you be willing to sit down with a medical professional and dispute the first four claims?

There are LOADS of medical professionals that will agree with me. Just not the ones controlled by AHPRA and threatened with deregistration if they do not comply with the government

Psssstt. Naturopaths and Instagram clowns like Pete Evans aren't medical professionals.

Burleigh,
Hahahahahaha loads of medical 'professionals', watch out AHPRA's coming to get them.
Who are these people?

But don't let your fake news, half truth, media manipulated opinion stand in then way of reason .

Watch out the Enlightenment is due soon, the mid 17th century is just around the corner

bonza's picture
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bonza Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:46am

Well I guess I was reading it different to you.

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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:51am

"......that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements."

And we wait, more in hope than expectation, to see if once, just once, in this endless stream of senseless assertions, evidence will be provided. But that would ruin the fun wouldn't it?

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 8:59am

Yeah….The Director of the CDC saying they’ve got real world data showing the vaccines prevent infection and transmission of covid almost 5 months after vaccines began being supplied to the public and many months after the vaccine trials.

She’s lying and there’s video evidence of it directly above.

Once again, no one is left to wonder from where the name Blindboy derived it’s origins.

Here it is again as your myopic exclusion appears to be boundless.

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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:07am

"It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. "

Well no, within a couple of weeks they released data showing they were wrong. So lie after lie? No, one error, made genuinely, as demonstrated by the prompt correction.

https://nypost.com/2021/04/02/cdc-walks-back-claim-that-vaccinated-peopl...

But hey, keep trying and maybe, if you make slightly less hysterical claims, you will be able to back them up.

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Patrick0710 Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:10am

"The Portuguese government has said it is to reintroduce vaccination certificates for public spaces including bars, hotels, restaurants and gyms and once again make face masks compulsory indoors."

Dictator Dan out of CONTROL again!!!!!

Oh, wait ...

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:11am
Blowin wrote:

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

No one ever said vaccines were the magic cure. Feel free to post evidence to the contrary.?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:12am

“One error, made genuinely”

“ This isn’t just hypocritical, this is backed up by the real world data.”

Months after the vaccine rollout. Months after vaccinated people were known to be catching covid. It was a lie. It wasn’t a miscalculation or miscommunication or misrepresentation. It was a lie.

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overthefalls Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:12am

Rabbit holes are excellent echo chambers.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:17am
Patrick0710 wrote:

"The Portuguese government has said it is to reintroduce vaccination certificates for public spaces including bars, hotels, restaurants and gyms and once again make face masks compulsory indoors."

Dictator Dan out of CONTROL again!!!!!

Oh, wait ...

Mao couldn’t have been an authoritarian because some other people said Stalin was also an authoritarian!

Dictator Dan personally oversaw the harshest covid restrictions in the world. He also personally oversaw the most covid fatalies of any state in Australia.

His response? Try and self appoint himself the power to unilaterally impose draconian measures at his whim. He wants to imprison people for a couple of years if they go into a shop whilst unvaccinated despite being completely free from covid. He’s a fucking madman and it’s the chicken shit softcocks of Victoria who give him the confidence to throw his wok-eyed weight around like Mussolini.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:25am
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

No one ever said vaccines were the magic cure. Feel free to post evidence to the contrary.?

No one except the Director for the United States Centre for Disease Control in the video above. She made it clear It wasn’t just her making broad assumptions from theory, her provocation was backed up by real world data. She said vaccines prevent transmission , infection and illness by covid.

It’s the pattern- Make the big lie and then slowly pretend it never happened or walk it back when the waters are sufficiently muddied.

Vaccines will save us.
Vaccines prevent infection and illness
Vaccines provide lasting immunity
Double vaccinated catching covid is super rare
Vaccines will never be mandatory
Vaccine passports will never happen
Boosters are only for the immune compromised, they’ll never be made essential for general population ( this one is being walked back as we speak)

Etc etc

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:19am

How come Astra Zeneca isn’t approved by the US government ?

Different science?

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:21am
Blowin wrote:

“Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid”

Go get your 89th jab bloke. Then back in your Henny Penny bunker.

Blowin, does an obese person's life have less value than someone that isn't obese?

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:24am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

No one ever said vaccines were the magic cure. Feel free to post evidence to the contrary.?

No one except the Director for the United States Centre for Disease Control in the video above. She made it clear It wasn’t just her making broad assumptions from theory, her provocation was backed up by real world data. She said vaccines prevent transmission , infection and illness by covid.

So if no one said it...why do you keep saying it in here then? And using it to suit your pissweak argument...i guess it is because you bring zero facts and just cling to anything you can

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:24am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

No one ever said vaccines were the magic cure. Feel free to post evidence to the contrary.?

No one except the Director for the United States Centre for Disease Control in the video above. She made it clear It wasn’t just her making broad assumptions from theory, her provocation was backed up by real world data. She said vaccines prevent transmission , infection and illness by covid.

So if no one said it...why do you keep saying it in here then? And using it to suit your pissweak argument...i guess it is because you bring zero facts and just cling to anything you can

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bluediamond Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:27am

Great post above TBB. Thanks for your tireless efforts to pass that on. Legend!

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:30am
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

“Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid”

Go get your 89th jab bloke. Then back in your Henny Penny bunker.

Blowin, does an obese person's life have less value than someone that isn't obese?

In your ledger it must do.

You’ve plainly said, time and again, that the unvaccinated are selfish people who should be punished because they place an excess burden on the health system and clog up hospital beds. What’s more they brought it on themselves by making themselves more prone to serious covid infection.

The exact same can be said of the obese*. Word for word. You obviously feel the same way about the obese otherwise it proves that you dont give a fuck about the health system or covid or any of it…..you just have an ideological, cultish cunt-streak-a- mile-wide.

Which is it?

*Actually- Covid probably accounts for around 2% of the impact on the public health systems as obesity does. Obesity is much worse.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:31am
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

I’m just proving to you that people were told that vaccines were the magic cure. The CDC was unequivocal about it - the results weren’t just hypothetical but backed by real world data!

It’s been one lie after another by authorities and institutions, this goes far beyond any recalibration of knowledge as study of the situation has progressed. It’s blatant lies. That’s not “ voices in your head” or some other such pleasant accusation, that is a literal accounting of the expert’s provably false statements.

No one ever said vaccines were the magic cure. Feel free to post evidence to the contrary.?

No one except the Director for the United States Centre for Disease Control in the video above. She made it clear It wasn’t just her making broad assumptions from theory, her provocation was backed up by real world data. She said vaccines prevent transmission , infection and illness by covid.

So if no one said it...why do you keep saying it in here then? And using it to suit your pissweak argument...i guess it is because you bring zero facts and just cling to anything you can

No one….except the CDC director.

All that government hand-out covid money has made you stupid.

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:46am
blindboy's picture
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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:47am

"Months after the vaccine rollout. Months after vaccinated people were known to be catching covid. It was a lie. It wasn’t a miscalculation or miscommunication or misrepresentation. It was a lie."

The usual superficial treatment of a complex issue! You may, or may not, know that the delta variant is much more infectious and has a much greater risk of breakthrough infection than earlier forms of the virus. This was not detected in the US until the 23 February, a few weeks befoe the CDC video you posted. Also vaccinations had only begun in December so by March only a tiny minority of the population had both doses. In the circumstances it is unlikely that the CDC had any clear evidence that breakthrough infections were occurring.

Oh and even if they did, what about the "lie after lie" assertion? Anything to back that up or does it just go into the "ridiculous things Blowin has said" folder? Nah, I'm only kidding. Who could keep up anyway?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:02am

Here’s a list of (some of ) the lies-

Vaccines will save us.
Vaccines prevent infection and illness
Vaccines provide lasting immunity
Double vaccinated catching covid is super rare
Vaccines will never be mandatory
Vaccine passports will never happen
Boosters are only for the immune compromised, they’ll never be made essential for general population ( this one is being walked back as we speak)

I didn’t bother including the ridiculous, ludicrous and outlandish covid death rate predictions which underwrote the entire global reaction.

Nor did I mention the lies for the first year of the virus that death rates were about 1000 times higher than they actually are, or the fact that for months and months, despite knowing full well it was bullshit, the claim that covid was indiscriminate in who it made severely I’ll. Apparently everyone was just as likely to get really sick as anyone else.

Lies, lies, lies.

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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:59am

No mate they are just what you claim has been stated. Provide links to these statements as made by health authorities.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:03am
blindboy wrote:

No mate they are just what you claim has been stated. Provide links to these statements as made by health authorities.

Oh, do fuck off Blindboy. Everyone on planet Earth was fed this bullshit. You go look it up,

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:03am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Blowin wrote:

“Todays irrelevant fixation that no one cares about is obesity and covid”

Go get your 89th jab bloke. Then back in your Henny Penny bunker.

Blowin, does an obese person's life have less value than someone that isn't obese?

In your ledger it must do.

You’ve plainly said, time and again, that the unvaccinated are selfish people who should be punished because they place an excess burden on the health system and clog up hospital beds. What’s more they brought it on themselves by making themselves more prone to serious covid infection.

The exact same can be said of the obese*. Word for word. You obviously feel the same way about the obese otherwise it proves that you dont give a fuck about the health system or covid or any of it…..you just have an ideological, cultish cunt-streak-a- mile-wide.

Which is it?

*Actually- Covid probably accounts for around 2% of the impact on the public health systems as obesity does. Obesity is much worse.

What? What the actual fuck did you just say? You're becoming more incoherent every day.

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saltyone Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:04am

https://www.swellnet.com/comment/779186#comment-779186

And the coronavirus will keep mutating and dodging as this is what coronaviruses do.
It is certainly very clear now that current vaccines are not working sufficiently for the long term picture. Do people really want to be pin cushions getting shot in the arm every four months with drugs that are now known to have very concerning side effects in the short term and unknown but worrying risks long term?
It seems now more than ever that treatment instead would be the far safer and more sensible option.

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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:12am

No mate, not going anywhere. Pretty sad when you make claims potentially damaging to community health then become abusive when called to justify them......but that's what you do.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:16am
blindboy wrote:

No mate, not going anywhere. Pretty sad when you make claims potentially damaging to community health then become abusive when called to justify them......but that's what you do.

“When you make claims potentially damaging to community health…”

Says the bloke who does what he can to perpetuate the lie that racial divides in the world have never been worse and that white supremacists are murdering people on the streets without compunction or consequence.

Perhaps you should stop and consider what people like yourself, with your loud declarations that white hate is everywhere and on the rise, inspire in others…..such as driving their car through dozens of dancing grannies and children at a Christmas parade.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:18am

Apart from that I’m not even sure what “potentially damaging claims” you think I make might mean.

You think that accurately stating that obesity is an acutely serious contributing factor to covid illness is naughty?

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:18am

If this new variant takes off and scientists fears around vaccines not being as effective for this new strain, then 2022 is going to be a repeat of the last 2 years. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59418127. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/25/uk-suspends-flights-to-six-african-count...

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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:21am

Blowin, you really should shut your computer down and go for a surf or something.

The descent into crazy continues.

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:23am

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burleigh Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:23am
Vic Local][quote=burleigh wrote:
shortenism wrote:

All you can do is laugh but the 5 - 11 year old suggestions makes my skin crawl.

They want to injure kids to make adults feel safe. That's fucking sick.

Still massively playing down the impact of the virus and massively exaggerating the negative effects of the vaccine. nothing more than Clive Palmer style rubbish.

The stats play down the impact of the virus, i don't need too. Anybody favouring that kids get vaccinated with the short term known side effects and longterm not known is a self entitled wanker.

It's a new low for man kind to potentially injure our kids to protect scared adults.

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goofyfoot Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:24am

“ it’s the chicken shit softcocks of Victoria who give him the confidence to throw his wok-eyed weight around like Mussolini.”

Blowin I reckon you’d lose the tough guy image pretty quick and be flying back to NSW minus your front teeth if you said that to a guy who was trapped at home for months in Melbourne with no job, trying to educate his kids who weren’t allowed to go to school, can’t travel to the surf and couldn’t even catch up for a beer with his mates.
Shit comment

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:26am
goofyfoot wrote:

“ it’s the chicken shit softcocks of Victoria who give him the confidence to throw his wok-eyed weight around like Mussolini.”

Blowin I reckon you’d lose the tough guy image pretty quick and be flying back to NSW minus your front teeth if you said that to a guy who was trapped at home for months in Melbourne with no job, trying to educate his kids who weren’t allowed to go to school, can’t travel to the surf and couldn’t even catch up for a beer with his mates.
Shit comment

Apologies Goofy. I truly don’t intend to upset the many fine residents of Victoria. They are unfortunate collateral damage in my desire to smear Dictator Dan and his enablers ie VIC Local.

Again….my sincere apologies. I’m on your side. I can’t believe what you people were put through. I reckon it’s criminal.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:31am
Roadkill wrote:

Blowin, you really should shut your computer down and go for a surf or something.

The descent into crazy continues.

Go for a surf?

The water is brown and full of floating livestock carcasses. The surf is an insipid knee high windswell with onshore blowing.

I’ll tell you what’s crazy: sitting in the Coles carpark and watching the grey nomads try to negotiate their $500K travelling rigs around an enclosed area despite possessing no discernible driving skills. How they ever manage to complete their travels in one piece is beyond me.

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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:31am

supa the WHO and many epidemiologist have been warning that this would happen as insufficient support was given to vaccination programs in developing nations. . And yes, the scenario could be back to square one.......or worse as community support will be much lower. But it is early days so we shouldn't assume the worst.

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:37am
blindboy wrote:

supa the WHO and many epidemiologist have been warning that this would happen as insufficient support was given to vaccination programs in developing nations. . And yes, the scenario could be back to square one.......or worse as community support will be much lower. But it is early days so we shouldn't assume the worst.

Yes it’s early days , so many mistakes and inconsistencies, what happened to Gavi looking after the poorer nations? Lets hope it doesn’t take off but reports on how quickly its evolving in SA don’t look good.

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goofyfoot Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:39am
Blowin wrote:
goofyfoot wrote:

“ it’s the chicken shit softcocks of Victoria who give him the confidence to throw his wok-eyed weight around like Mussolini.”

Blowin I reckon you’d lose the tough guy image pretty quick and be flying back to NSW minus your front teeth if you said that to a guy who was trapped at home for months in Melbourne with no job, trying to educate his kids who weren’t allowed to go to school, can’t travel to the surf and couldn’t even catch up for a beer with his mates.
Shit comment

Apologies Goofy. I truly don’t intend to upset the many fine residents of Victoria. They are unfortunate collateral damage in my desire to smear Dictator Dan and his enablers ie VIC Local.

Again….my sincere apologies. I’m on your side. I can’t believe what you people were put through. I reckon it’s criminal.

Agree with you 100% re Dan.
I have mates in Melbourne in that exact situation I described, some were really struggling.
I was one of the lucky ones who live on the coast and could at least still get some water time, and it was still fucked!

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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:51am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Blowin, you really should shut your computer down and go for a surf or something.

The descent into crazy continues.

Go for a surf?

The water is brown and full of floating livestock carcasses. The surf is an insipid knee high windswell with onshore blowing.

I’ll tell you what’s crazy: sitting in the Coles carpark and watching the grey nomads try to negotiate their $500K travelling rigs around an enclosed area despite possessing no discernible driving skills. How they ever manage to complete their travels in one piece is beyond me.

Gawd you're a negative ass...must be a joy to be around. Everything is alawys bad and against you.

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saltyone Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:58am

Supafreak yes I also thought of geert van de Bosche just before as well and how he along with others was warning the world heavily of an impending humanitarian crisis from mass vaccinations and mutations .
It’s very hard to feel hopeful at this point . We must try to be strong though and keep believing it will be ok in the end.
Look after ourselves and our loved ones stay healthy and fit and try to not let anxiety take over . As that creates illness all of its own .Meditate , breathe ,spend a lot of time in nature. Follow heart and gut instinct .