COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:41am
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etarip Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:44am

Shoot ‘em

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san Guine Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:45am

Brutus, your article concerns the C.1.2 strain. The big O is B.1.1. 529.

As to the differences/similarities, sorry but I have no idea.

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saltyone Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 9:48am

Wasn’t gonna write this but stuff it . Those who are bagging blowin “behind his back” will get their karma . And there are a few of you it seems. Speaks volumes of character of a person.
I have respect for him as he has the guts to tell it like it is and with wit to boot. Opposite of a snowflake . He has only ever defended himself from being attacked and bullied from day dot. He sees bs and isn’t afraid to call it. I wish there were more blowins in the world .
Naughty corners ? Nah don’t think it needed to come to that.

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burleigh Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:15am
Roadkill wrote:

Another peaceful protest.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/police-hunt-protesters-who-l...

From September 18th Roadkill. Stay relevant please. Sharing this is just media hype or click bait.

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zenagain Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:16am

Agree Salty, for the most part brings something worthwhile to the table and can dish it out and take it in equal measure. Keeps a few higher than thou's on their toes.

I don't think sin-bins are needed either, usually things tend to calm down in good time.

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burleigh Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:23am

Interesting to hear the fear campaign has already begun on the new variant. Every channel, every radio station it's all breaking headlines. Closing borders in the UK etc etc.

Pfyzer bosses will be wiping their asses with 100 dollar bills.

Will the 4th booster shots have some new poison added?

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shortenism Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:45am

Spot on saltyone

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shortenism Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:49am

It’s gonna be big today. Crank the Johnny Farnham ‘your’re the voice’ then look in the mirror and ask yourself ‘why the fk aren’t I standing to shut this bullshit down’. Stand up and move forward or stand down and become roadkill.

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:50am
burleigh wrote:

Interesting to hear the fear campaign has already begun on the new variant. Every channel, every radio station it's all breaking headlines. Closing borders in the UK etc etc.

Pfyzer bosses will be wiping their asses with 100 dollar bills.

Will the 4th booster shots have some new poison added?

You're sure it’s not just raising concern? Not everything is to scare.

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freeride76 Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:58am

Are there protests on today Shorto?

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groundswell Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 10:58am

According to a guy on another website a deadly flu is spreading across USA,. constant coughing up zero flem yet trying to clear your throat etc.Lasts two to three weeks.

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I focus Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 11:14am
Supafreak wrote:

Lets hope it’s all just a storm in a teacup . Our government needs to have some sort of plan in place though.

SF I hear Morrison is doing up a pamphlet and should be ready for another lovely press conference soon...

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GuySmiley Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 11:41am
shortenism wrote:

It’s gonna be big today. Crank the Johnny Farnham ‘your’re the voice’ then look in the mirror and ask yourself ‘why the fk aren’t I standing to shut this bullshit down’. Stand up and move forward or stand down and become roadkill.

Is it one or two zillion on streets today? Yawn

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Supafreak Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:13pm

Data shared by South Africa's Department of Health on Thursday showed that B.1.1.529 made up about 75% of cases detected in Gauteng province on November 22, just two weeks after the variant first emerged. Its ascent was much faster than that of the Beta and Delta variants, which each took months to become dominant. BioNTech says it will know in 2 weeks whether the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with Pfizer works against the new variant rapidly spreading in southern Africa https://www.businessinsider.com/vaccine-pfizer-biontech-coronavirus-covi... So why not stop flights from SA until more is known ? Apparently there’s not many flights anyway at the moment.

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:29pm
Roadkill wrote:

It’s pretty much impossible to keep variants in 1 location. Air travel and human movement will always spread.

100%

Before we had a vaccine there was a descent excuse for closing borders and quarantine, but now we have vaccines even if a strain is more resistant, it's going to spread.

The idea that we can keep any strain out of Australia long term is just not realistic and only hurts us trying.

Plus who the hell wants to go through all that crazy shit again, only wankers that do will be supporting the idea for political reasons, so they can hate on the government...they can go get fucked.

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burleigh Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:40pm
freeride76 wrote:

Are there protests on today Shorto?

Sure is. Here is the link to the Melbourne coverage
https://fb.watch/9xhv-UK08l/

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sypkan Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:43pm

"Is it possible that humanity is making a very big mistake here? Coronaviruses forma very large family of viruses that have always circulated in the population. (See below screengrab from www.healthdirect.gov.au/.). With all the testing taking place, are we now just detecting and reacting to the various strains of coronaviruses that have always circulated in the population? So are we just being really stupid and fear driven now?

If we keep going into panic and fear mode and react to every coronavirus variant like we have with covid, then we are never going to get out of this situation."

it's totally possible...

that's why voices willing to ask questions should never be silenced... (blowin)

and voices that seem too keen, too 'compliant and servile', too invested, should be listened to with a critical mind.... (blindboy)

as niel furgosan noted re. corona... governments tend to develope a 'bureaucratic inertia' that is cumbersome and totally resistant to change...

combined with an investment inertia that has developed... we should be more suspicious and careful than ever of any forms of pointless entrenchment we've burroughed into

the sheer investment in uselessness to this point is off the charts

as someone said above, that investment probably should have gone into readying the medical systems, and if it did we'd probably be in a much better position both now and for the future

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sypkan Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:46pm
indo-dreaming wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

It’s pretty much impossible to keep variants in 1 location. Air travel and human movement will always spread.

100%

Before we had a vaccine there was a descent excuse for closing borders and quarantine, but now we have vaccines even if a strain is more resistant, it's going to spread.

The idea that we can keep any strain out of Australia long term is just not realistic and only hurts us trying.

Plus who the hell wants to go through all that crazy shit again, only wankers that do will be supporting the idea for political reasons, so they can hate on the government...they can go get fucked.

I agree, but it seems dumb to not stop flights right now

pig headed, dumb, and non-sensical

a tenporary ban like we did with india seems appropriate

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:48pm
indo-dreaming wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

It’s pretty much impossible to keep variants in 1 location. Air travel and human movement will always spread.

100%

Before we had a vaccine there was a descent excuse for closing borders and quarantine, but now we have vaccines even if a strain is more resistant, it's going to spread.

The idea that we can keep any strain out of Australia long term is just not realistic and only hurts us trying.

Plus who the hell wants to go through all that crazy shit again, only wankers that do will be supporting the idea for political reasons, so they can hate on the government...they can go get fucked.

It is worth keeping new variants out of the country for as long as possible to allow them to get more study, better ICU treatment developed etc etc.
I would prefer not to be the country with the first serious outbreak.

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:56pm

Temporary ban is okay for a few weeks as work out more, makes sense to just do that like other countries, but they were saying on the radio there is no direct flights to and from SA anyway.

They are announcing restrictions by a press conference in about 5 minutes.

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burleigh Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 12:57pm
Roadkill wrote:
indo-dreaming wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

It’s pretty much impossible to keep variants in 1 location. Air travel and human movement will always spread.

100%

Before we had a vaccine there was a descent excuse for closing borders and quarantine, but now we have vaccines even if a strain is more resistant, it's going to spread.

The idea that we can keep any strain out of Australia long term is just not realistic and only hurts us trying.

Plus who the hell wants to go through all that crazy shit again, only wankers that do will be supporting the idea for political reasons, so they can hate on the government...they can go get fucked.

It is worth keeping new variants out of the country for as long as possible to allow them to get more study, better ICU treatment developed etc etc.
I would prefer not to be the country with the first serious outbreak.

Listen to yourself Roadkill. We literally know nothing about this new variant. Stop living in fear, get outside, breath fresh air and live your life.

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 1:04pm
burleigh wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
indo-dreaming wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

It’s pretty much impossible to keep variants in 1 location. Air travel and human movement will always spread.

100%

Before we had a vaccine there was a descent excuse for closing borders and quarantine, but now we have vaccines even if a strain is more resistant, it's going to spread.

The idea that we can keep any strain out of Australia long term is just not realistic and only hurts us trying.

Plus who the hell wants to go through all that crazy shit again, only wankers that do will be supporting the idea for political reasons, so they can hate on the government...they can go get fucked.

It is worth keeping new variants out of the country for as long as possible to allow them to get more study, better ICU treatment developed etc etc.
I would prefer not to be the country with the first serious outbreak.

Listen to yourself Roadkill. We literally know nothing about this new variant. Stop living in fear, get outside, breath fresh air and live your life.

I have zero fear.

You assume a lot.

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indo-dreaming Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 1:56pm

"COVID live updates: New Omicron variant prompts tightening of Australian quarantine for travellers from South Africa and other countries"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-27/covid-live-updates-who-omicron-co...

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shortenism Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 2:02pm

Fear is the pandemic

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Supafreak Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 2:58pm
brainiac wrote:

get the popcorn out.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-05/government-buys-merck-covid-antiv...

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/merck-says-covi...

also with suspect side effects.

Be a race now to secure Pfizer’s new pill .

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 2:59pm

Ignorance trumps fear.

Ignorance march today, get out there.

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shortenism Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 3:46pm

bravery trumps fear.

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Vic Local Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 4:05pm

Trump was brave and 700,000 US citizens are dead now.

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Supafreak Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 4:47pm

In naming the new varient they went from mu to omicron skipping past nu and xi , was there a political reason for skipping xi ? E9-A86743-9-E74-4-C18-9-AFA-0-EA533542-AA9

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gsco Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 5:10pm

Lol, probably didn’t need to though because the Greek pronunciation of Xi is zz-eye but the Mandarin is more like “tshee” (with the tongue behind the bottom teeth)

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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 5:35pm

Today's little rally in a small rural town i attended pulled in about 1000. Of note, the majority were clearly elderly. Some really ancient. That came as a big surprise. I would suggest anyone labelling those marching with derision should perhaps get out there to a rally and meet these people themselves. With an open mind. These are ordinary everyday people like you and me who have had enough. Nobody wants to be there on a glorious Saturday morning. People are forcing themselves out if their comfort zones because they know things fundamentally are wrong. Its happening everywhere. Was q powerful experience for such a small community to come together in a place that will make no media headlines.

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 5:38pm

What rural town was that BD?

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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 5:54pm

Prefer not to say locations on here Roady.

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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 6:07pm

Since my last post earlier in the week two more people I know personally have been laid out by job.
Hearing from friends similar stories..

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goofyfoot Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 6:22pm

What does laid out mean? My apprentice had a bad headache the day after getting his Pfizer shot and he went home early and went to bed. Fine the next day.
Is that laid out?

And why is it that it’s only anti-vaxxers that know “heaps” of people who have been affected by the vaccine?

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 6:36pm

I was laid out and shattered after my Pfizer last Sunday. Went home from work early on Monday and lay on the bed exhausted with a headache. Tuesday felt better but still a bit tired. Wednesday pretty much back to normal..all known side effects and an indication that the jab and your body is doing the right thing.
All good. No need to dramatise it

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AndyM Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 6:44pm

“ No need to dramatise it”

Exactamundo.

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freeride76 Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 6:54pm

I went to the Ballina rally today.

Not on purpose, I had no idea it was on and was on my way to BCF.

thought I'd stop in and make my own judgements on the people there and the "counter-narrative."

Report to follow.

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Vic Local Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:04pm

I'm pro vax and know absolutely nobody who has had a bad reaction to the vaccine. "A bit tired" and "a sore arm for the day" is it. This is not a shock given how rare serious side effects are.
Funny how the anti-vaxxers seem to personally know multiple people who have had crippling side effects or died after the jab. And these folk know absolutely nobody who has had Covid. What a coincidence.

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:12pm

Just to clarify, my reaction to my 3rd jab should not be classed as a bad reaction…..it was just a mild reaction.

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AndyM Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:23pm

Interested to hear, looked like there was a bit of a turn out.

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AndyM Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:23pm

Interested to hear, looked like there was a bit of a turn out.

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AndyM Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:31pm

Looks largely like a grab bag rent a mob

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Roadkill Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 7:53pm

The signs on display from todays marches show most people attending are stupid.

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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 8:07pm

Didn't seem like stupid people where I was roady. My read was 70% of the crowd were normal enough concerned citizens. There would have been about 30% that came across a little bit too passionate, also a little bit aggressive in their demeanour. It definitely adds an uneasy element to the people there who come along with purely legitimate concerns and I think it drove a few away during. The whole Aussie oi thing and flag waving/eureka flag doesn't sit comfortably with me normally and during a peaceful protest its definitely abrasive. But like I said, alot of elderly. That really surprised me as they've seen alot more in their time than I have.

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Vic Local Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 8:15pm
Roadkill wrote:

The signs on display from todays marches show most people attending are stupid.

The only thing worse than that idiot mob is the right wing grifters trying to outdo each other to win their votes.
If Palmer, Hanson, Katter or one the other lunar right micro-parties can be the preferred fuckwit politician of choice for the anti-everything mob, they are a very good chance of getting a senate seat. Probably not in their own right, but with preference flows from the other nutter parties, they probably would get a quota.
These fuckers are encouraging the mob big time. They are becoming increasingly deranged to match the mob. Speaking at their rallies and pushing covid misinformation on their social media platforms. They don't give a flying fuck about the consequences just as long as they stay on the tax payer funded gravy train.
Only a complete moron can't see how the mobs at the "freedom marches" are the scumbag's useful idiots.

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bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 8:18pm

I do tend to agree w u there VL. Very wary of each of them and their underlying motivation.

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seaslug Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 8:31pm

Freedom Marches for firk sake, my 10th Lighthouse Grandfather would be rolling in his grave