COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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saltyone Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:04am

https://www.swellnet.com/comment/779186#comment-779186

And the coronavirus will keep mutating and dodging as this is what coronaviruses do.
It is certainly very clear now that current vaccines are not working sufficiently for the long term picture. Do people really want to be pin cushions getting shot in the arm every four months with drugs that are now known to have very concerning side effects in the short term and unknown but worrying risks long term?
It seems now more than ever that treatment instead would be the far safer and more sensible option.

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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:12am

No mate, not going anywhere. Pretty sad when you make claims potentially damaging to community health then become abusive when called to justify them......but that's what you do.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:16am
blindboy wrote:

No mate, not going anywhere. Pretty sad when you make claims potentially damaging to community health then become abusive when called to justify them......but that's what you do.

“When you make claims potentially damaging to community health…”

Says the bloke who does what he can to perpetuate the lie that racial divides in the world have never been worse and that white supremacists are murdering people on the streets without compunction or consequence.

Perhaps you should stop and consider what people like yourself, with your loud declarations that white hate is everywhere and on the rise, inspire in others…..such as driving their car through dozens of dancing grannies and children at a Christmas parade.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:18am

Apart from that I’m not even sure what “potentially damaging claims” you think I make might mean.

You think that accurately stating that obesity is an acutely serious contributing factor to covid illness is naughty?

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:18am

If this new variant takes off and scientists fears around vaccines not being as effective for this new strain, then 2022 is going to be a repeat of the last 2 years. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59418127. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/25/uk-suspends-flights-to-six-african-count...

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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:21am

Blowin, you really should shut your computer down and go for a surf or something.

The descent into crazy continues.

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:23am
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burleigh Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:23am
Vic Local][quote=burleigh wrote:
shortenism wrote:

All you can do is laugh but the 5 - 11 year old suggestions makes my skin crawl.

They want to injure kids to make adults feel safe. That's fucking sick.

Still massively playing down the impact of the virus and massively exaggerating the negative effects of the vaccine. nothing more than Clive Palmer style rubbish.

The stats play down the impact of the virus, i don't need too. Anybody favouring that kids get vaccinated with the short term known side effects and longterm not known is a self entitled wanker.

It's a new low for man kind to potentially injure our kids to protect scared adults.

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goofyfoot Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:24am

“ it’s the chicken shit softcocks of Victoria who give him the confidence to throw his wok-eyed weight around like Mussolini.”

Blowin I reckon you’d lose the tough guy image pretty quick and be flying back to NSW minus your front teeth if you said that to a guy who was trapped at home for months in Melbourne with no job, trying to educate his kids who weren’t allowed to go to school, can’t travel to the surf and couldn’t even catch up for a beer with his mates.
Shit comment

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:26am
goofyfoot wrote:

“ it’s the chicken shit softcocks of Victoria who give him the confidence to throw his wok-eyed weight around like Mussolini.”

Blowin I reckon you’d lose the tough guy image pretty quick and be flying back to NSW minus your front teeth if you said that to a guy who was trapped at home for months in Melbourne with no job, trying to educate his kids who weren’t allowed to go to school, can’t travel to the surf and couldn’t even catch up for a beer with his mates.
Shit comment

Apologies Goofy. I truly don’t intend to upset the many fine residents of Victoria. They are unfortunate collateral damage in my desire to smear Dictator Dan and his enablers ie VIC Local.

Again….my sincere apologies. I’m on your side. I can’t believe what you people were put through. I reckon it’s criminal.

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:31am
Roadkill wrote:

Blowin, you really should shut your computer down and go for a surf or something.

The descent into crazy continues.

Go for a surf?

The water is brown and full of floating livestock carcasses. The surf is an insipid knee high windswell with onshore blowing.

I’ll tell you what’s crazy: sitting in the Coles carpark and watching the grey nomads try to negotiate their $500K travelling rigs around an enclosed area despite possessing no discernible driving skills. How they ever manage to complete their travels in one piece is beyond me.

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blindboy Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:31am

supa the WHO and many epidemiologist have been warning that this would happen as insufficient support was given to vaccination programs in developing nations. . And yes, the scenario could be back to square one.......or worse as community support will be much lower. But it is early days so we shouldn't assume the worst.

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:37am
blindboy wrote:

supa the WHO and many epidemiologist have been warning that this would happen as insufficient support was given to vaccination programs in developing nations. . And yes, the scenario could be back to square one.......or worse as community support will be much lower. But it is early days so we shouldn't assume the worst.

Yes it’s early days , so many mistakes and inconsistencies, what happened to Gavi looking after the poorer nations? Lets hope it doesn’t take off but reports on how quickly its evolving in SA don’t look good.

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goofyfoot Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:39am
Blowin wrote:
goofyfoot wrote:

“ it’s the chicken shit softcocks of Victoria who give him the confidence to throw his wok-eyed weight around like Mussolini.”

Blowin I reckon you’d lose the tough guy image pretty quick and be flying back to NSW minus your front teeth if you said that to a guy who was trapped at home for months in Melbourne with no job, trying to educate his kids who weren’t allowed to go to school, can’t travel to the surf and couldn’t even catch up for a beer with his mates.
Shit comment

Apologies Goofy. I truly don’t intend to upset the many fine residents of Victoria. They are unfortunate collateral damage in my desire to smear Dictator Dan and his enablers ie VIC Local.

Again….my sincere apologies. I’m on your side. I can’t believe what you people were put through. I reckon it’s criminal.

Agree with you 100% re Dan.
I have mates in Melbourne in that exact situation I described, some were really struggling.
I was one of the lucky ones who live on the coast and could at least still get some water time, and it was still fucked!

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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:51am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Blowin, you really should shut your computer down and go for a surf or something.

The descent into crazy continues.

Go for a surf?

The water is brown and full of floating livestock carcasses. The surf is an insipid knee high windswell with onshore blowing.

I’ll tell you what’s crazy: sitting in the Coles carpark and watching the grey nomads try to negotiate their $500K travelling rigs around an enclosed area despite possessing no discernible driving skills. How they ever manage to complete their travels in one piece is beyond me.

Gawd you're a negative ass...must be a joy to be around. Everything is alawys bad and against you.

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saltyone Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 10:58am

Supafreak yes I also thought of geert van de Bosche just before as well and how he along with others was warning the world heavily of an impending humanitarian crisis from mass vaccinations and mutations .
It’s very hard to feel hopeful at this point . We must try to be strong though and keep believing it will be ok in the end.
Look after ourselves and our loved ones stay healthy and fit and try to not let anxiety take over . As that creates illness all of its own .Meditate , breathe ,spend a lot of time in nature. Follow heart and gut instinct .

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gragagan Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 11:41am

Just for the record, I am 100% in support of mandatory vacations for everyone.
If anyone refuses they should be forced :)

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Blowin Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 11:44am
gragagan wrote:

Just for the record, I am 100% in support of mandatory vacations for everyone.
If anyone refuses they should be forced :)

Not enough.

They should be canceled and publicly shamed on social media and then humiliated in the town square of the nearest capital. Then they should be executed at dawn with their friends and loved ones made to publicly denounce them or face the same fate.

All in the name of health and safety obviously.

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gragagan Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 11:47am

Vacations are the best
As long as everyone doesn't take theirs here...

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thermalben Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 11:54am

Blowin and blindboy have been blocked from commenting for 48 hours.

Stop the personal attacks, will ya? We're all sick of it.

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 11:56am

@swellnet , are the red circles warning signs that comments are about to be deleted ? & bly, yes you did mention the duplex and blowin did take the piss out of you for it .

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seeds Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 11:59am

Ha I was wondering about the little symbol that appeared all of a sudden. Good idea. Might help to tone things down a bit

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 11:57am
Supafreak wrote:

@swellnet , are the red circles warning signs that comments are about to be deleted ? & bly, yes you did mention the duplex and blowin did take the piss out of you for it .

It means that person has been temporarily blocked from commenting, until they stop being naughty.

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 11:58am
thermalben wrote:

Blowin and blindboy have been blocked from commenting for 48 hours.

Stop the personal attacks, will ya? We're all sick of it.

Good move , temporary ban might stop this .

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 12:05pm

The naughty corner was never an effective consequence for my kids' misbehaviour, so I doubt it will work. Still, it might be refreshing to read some new perspectives.

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thermalben Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 12:11pm

For clarification: by temporarily banning people from commenting, we're not taking sides with anyone, nor are we putting forth an opinion on the topic.

We are merely putting out a small fire, before it develops into a raging inferno, so we can fucking get on with our work. It's Friday afternoon and I have a bunch of meetings to prepare for. And everyone else here has shit to do too.

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 12:12pm
overthefalls wrote:

The naughty corner was never an effective consequence for my kids' misbehaviour, so I doubt it will work. Still, it might be refreshing to read some new perspectives.

Maybe double the cost of subscription for every temporary ban ? Hip pocket might pull them up lol

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udo Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 12:25pm
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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 12:27pm

I really hope this new varient doesn’t evolve into what scientists are fearing and that’s more resistance to the vaccine and fasting spreading . We have already witnessed this with delta . The vaccine was designed for the original varient and has not been as effective with delta ( still good though ) Another concern is the secret contracts ( apparently ) with Pfizer , again apparently , have a clause that if a cure is found the contracts remain . So if the vaccines have little effect on this new strain are we still locked into these expensive contracts ? Early treatment now more than ever is needed and the focus needs to shift . Or is this just a headline grabbing news story with nothing to worry about ?

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Vic Local Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 12:40pm

BB and blowin got yellow cards. What did I miss?

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overthefalls Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 12:43pm

Supafreak, I agree that there needs to be a shift in focus, especially now that most are vaccinated. I think there should also be a focus on preventative measures and early treatments.

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Fliplid Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 12:48pm

"Blowin and blindboy have been blocked from commenting for 48 hours."

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saltyone Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 12:54pm

Supafreak yeah contracts ..

Lots of shady stuff going on.
Bribes etc

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100553958

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/global-
development/2021/sep/10/pfizer-accused-of-holding-brazil-to-ransom-over-vaccine-contract-demands

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2...

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Rabbits68 Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 12:54pm

"Blowin and blindboy have been blocked from commenting for 48 hours.

Stop the personal attacks, will ya? We're all sick of it."

Just another bandaid unfortunately but better than nothing. Look who's at the pointy end of another intervention and I'm not referring to BB. Is anyone on here genuinely surprised? What about this for a radical idea (for free), cut Blowin off for six months and watch what happens to the various forum threads. The loss of his genuine contributions will pale into insignificance when compared the loss of the constant, blatant, unrelenting baiting, abuse and agro IMO.

With all due respect Ben, but it's kinda hard to take you seriously when you (or Stu) consistently get on here and complain about having to waste your time controlling abusive threads that 9 times out of 10 involve you know who.

Good luck either way. Keep up the great content & forecasts. Much appreciated.

P.S. Double vaxxed with AZ by the way (no issues) and will have no problems fronting up for any booster requirements so long as the science recommends it. Cheers.

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Constance B Gibson Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 1:00pm

"Stop the personal attacks, will ya? We're all sick of it."

Personally, I'm sick of seeing one particular 'special' dickhead getting a continual free pass for being "naughty".

Hysterical COVID dis/misinformation IN A PANDEMIC! Um, "naughty".

Threats of violence. Yeah, "naughty".

Calling people pedophiles. "Naughty".

Drunken, boorish, bigotted, and plainly weird sexual 'banter'. "Naughty, naughty, naughty"!

And then! when eventually slapped with SNs wet lettuce, of course other commenters have to go down too in the name of "balance".

FMD, talk about fake equivalence.

Always putting out spot fires around the 'special one'.

When's the penny EVER gonna drop??

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Supafreak Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 1:05pm

@saltyone , that first link was a bewdy , the last part had Pfizer promising to donate 1 billion doses in 2021 2022 , they might be useless by then if they ever get around to it .

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overthefalls Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 1:24pm

Yep, there's no doubt about it; when it comes to ethics, Pfizer has a poor reputation. However, using that as an argument against the vaccine's efficacy is an exercise in clutching at straws.

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overthefalls Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 1:44pm
udo wrote:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/3kvgL9JCLTYh/

WTF? Comparing the vaccine rollout in remote Aboriginal communities to genocide? I shouldn't be surprised, however, as the source of this video is Bitchute, a platform for far-right wing commentary and conspiracy theories. Imagine if the NT government did absolutely nothing to reduce the spread of covid in Aboriginal communities. That would also invite hysterical cries of genocide. It's a classic case of damned if you do and damned if you don't. As noted by an Aboriginal health care worker the other day, using the plight of disadvantaged Aboriginal communities to promote your warped political agenda is shameful.

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Craig Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 2:06pm
overthefalls wrote:
udo wrote:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/3kvgL9JCLTYh/

WTF? Comparing the vaccine rollout in remote Aboriginal communities to genocide? I shouldn't be surprised, however, as the source of this video is Bitchute, a platform for far-right wing commentary and conspiracy theories. Imagine if the NT government did absolutely nothing to reduce the spread of covid in Aboriginal communities. That would also invite hysterical cries of genocide. It's a classic case of damned if you do and damned if you don't. As noted by an Aboriginal health care worker the other day, using the plight of disadvantaged Aboriginal communities to promote your warped political agenda is shameful.

100%.

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Vic Local Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 2:30pm

OK, In the light of the yellow cards being handed out I'd just like to send my best wishes to Indo Dreaming, Sypkan, Hutchy, blowin, and burleigh. I reckon all three of you guys are top blokes, and in the immortal words of the great Jeff Fenech, "I love use all"

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Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 2:41pm

The new SA variant in the news is reported as initially coming from someone with HIV / AIDS. I'm not sure if this makes it harder to treat or similarly. Anyone have any ideas.

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overthefalls Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 2:53pm

My brother-in-law, who is a doctor, predicted this would happen. He advised that we should just get used to living with covid, as more variants are likely in the future. I wonder if that also means that new vaccines will have to be developed. I hope not.

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batfink Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:03pm

Yellow cards handed out. Has my support Ben. I’m not a big fan of the abuse and declarative nonsense.

Received an email during the week, the usual spam stuff. Claims include that only the pure bloods would survive, pure bloods defined as anyone who hasn’t been vaccinated; claims that all mRNA vaccines would leave the vaccinated with damaged cells which would see them all get cancer; claims that 82.5% of all women who were vaccinated during pregnancy lost their baby; claims that Dr Borody found a 3 pronged treatment that cures Covid (even he only claimed any efficacy if they got onto them early, real early - even then his 3 pronged treatment hasn’t been able to be duplicated in any clinical studies anywhere); made the usual claims about nobody anywhere having been able to identify a covid virus.

Was quite a mouthful actually. Thanks colonelhogan, like Schultz, you know nothing.

But it was entertaining to read up on what the latest fear campaign going around Facebook et al was up to. Always, so much fear!

I recommend not ‘doing your own research’ on it.

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Hiccups Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:07pm
Rabbits68 wrote:

"Blowin and blindboy have been blocked from commenting for 48 hours.

Stop the personal attacks, will ya? We're all sick of it."

Just another bandaid unfortunately but better than nothing. Look who's at the pointy end of another intervention and I'm not referring to BB. Is anyone on here genuinely surprised? What about this for a radical idea (for free), cut Blowin off for six months and watch what happens to the various forum threads. The loss of his genuine contributions will pale into insignificance when compared the loss of the constant, blatant, unrelenting baiting, abuse and agro IMO.

With all due respect Ben, but it's kinda hard to take you seriously when you (or Stu) consistently get on here and complain about having to waste your time controlling abusive threads that 9 times out of 10 involve you know who.

Good luck either way. Keep up the great content & forecasts. Much appreciated.

.

For real SN crew. Is it cos you know him personally, or he writes pieces here occasionally? There is no way his, I'm the alpha male, hear me roar bluster, isn't keeping people away from these forums.

His superiority complex, combined with total lack of self awareness, continues to amaze.

Enjoy watching, and seething from sidelines, blowin.

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overthefalls Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:11pm

People "doing their own research" in a field that is way outside their area of expertise is how we came up with the word "resurch".

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indo-dreaming Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:23pm
Hiccups wrote:
Rabbits68 wrote:

"Blowin and blindboy have been blocked from commenting for 48 hours.

Stop the personal attacks, will ya? We're all sick of it."

Just another bandaid unfortunately but better than nothing. Look who's at the pointy end of another intervention and I'm not referring to BB. Is anyone on here genuinely surprised? What about this for a radical idea (for free), cut Blowin off for six months and watch what happens to the various forum threads. The loss of his genuine contributions will pale into insignificance when compared the loss of the constant, blatant, unrelenting baiting, abuse and agro IMO.

With all due respect Ben, but it's kinda hard to take you seriously when you (or Stu) consistently get on here and complain about having to waste your time controlling abusive threads that 9 times out of 10 involve you know who.

Good luck either way. Keep up the great content & forecasts. Much appreciated.

.

For real SN crew. Is it cos you know him personally, or he writes pieces here occasionally? There is no way his, I'm the alpha male, hear me roar bluster, isn't keeping people away from these forums.

His superiority complex, combined with total lack of self awareness, continues to amaze.

Enjoy watching, and seething from sidelines, blowin.

I honestly thought you were talking about Blind Boy until you said Blowin.

Swellnet mods are pretty lenient and let a lot go, the problem seems more when it gets in an endless back and forth pattern.

It should be noted the history and debates gone bad between Blowin and Blindboy goes back a very long time, would have to be over a decade now.

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Vic Local Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:27pm

"It should be noted the history and debates gone bad between Blowin and Blindboy goes back a very long time, would have to be over a decade now."
It's not just BB and blowin. blowin is the loosest canon here. He's accused me of condoning pedos and threatened to bash me on a few occasions.
If I was the Swellnet owners I'd turn his 48 hour sin bin into a red card. And wouldn't he sook about cancel culture then.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:27pm
Vic Local wrote:

OK, In the light of the yellow cards being handed out I'd just like to send my best wishes to Indo Dreaming, Sypkan, Hutchy, blowin, and burleigh. I reckon all three of you guys are top blokes, and in the immortal words of the great Jeff Fenech, "I love use all"

My fav Aussie boxer quote

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overthefalls Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:30pm

Agreed, Indo.

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john_c Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:35pm