COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

Current Australian COVID-19 cases are growing exponentially at a rate of 1.24x the day before. Green shows confirmed cases day by day in Australia, blue is NSW.

The pink is the forecasted increase in cases at our current rate (1.24) and by Apr 7-10 (3 weeks) the health system will be overcome if we don't stop or slow the transmission.

There are currently 2,000 ICU unit/beds in the country, and 80% are already used, with 20% = 400 available.

The ICU rate per case is 5% so if there are 100 cases, 5 need ICU.

Now, the government have said that they can double the ICU beds, so + 2000 which then leaves us with 2,400 beds to deal with this (existing 400 + new 2,000).

When will those 2,400 beds fill up? That's when 48,000 people are infected. IE 5% of 48,000 is 2,400.

Using the current rate of infection (1.24), by April 10 we'll see 57,596 cases across Australia and this is past the tipping point if we don't act now.

It's a few days earlier (Apr 7) if only say 1000 of those new beds can be staffed or nurses get sick etc.

But, if we isolate, social distance, clean hands etc and reduce the infection rate to 1.05, we can flatten the curve and we won't be at capacity until Jul 13. Being a crude model, many would have left hospital making more beds available etc and the system will cope and the curve steady.

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I did the same forecast for NSW, estimating that they have 60% of the ICU beds across the country, ie 1200. 20% of that leaves 240 available.

Say then 60% of the 2,000 the government add to help are for NSW, then we'll have an extra 1,200 for NSW. A total of 1,440 beds (1,200 + 240).

To fill these beds at the current 1.24 rate, we need 28,800 cases and that's forecast to occur Apr 8, around the same time as the national breaking point.

I'll continue to update the spreadsheet as days go by, but the take home message is that we need to drop the rate of infections and cases well below what we currently have otherwise we'll be in real trouble.

So take care of each other, but follow good self hygiene and social distancing and don't be selfish and panic buy as we're well supplied in Australia and the shelves should be stocked back up soon.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:47pm

Those stats in more detail..

National

NSW

I focus's picture
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I focus commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:54pm

Excellent work Craig

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:58pm

Of course, this also assumes the ICU beds aren't required for non-Coronavirus illnesses and injuries...

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 8:07pm

Ogre hates nerds !

shoredump's picture
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shoredump commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 8:07pm

Nice work Craig

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 8:11pm

Nah....great work , Craig.

Our government should be providing this stuff. Or education and direction of any kind come to think of it.

Scummo wants his Italy moment.

This might interest you , Craig. The Imperial College report that put a rocket up Trump’s arse : https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-...

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Craig commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 8:09pm

Ah Ben, 80% taken up for non Coronoavirus, ie I've gone with 20% available as that's what I've been told.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 8:12pm

So this is assuming all the icu beds are empty to begin with?

Sorry, just read Craig’s reply to Ben above

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Craig commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 9:09pm

Great link there Blowin!

Distracted's picture
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Distracted commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 9:18pm

Craig, great break down to visualise what and when the impacts will occur. Seems sort of surreal at the moment when the numbers are relatively low but that exponential growth is a killer.
Have been using “is god a mathematician” as a read to knock me out before bed lately and it probably needs a new chapter on exponential growth and epidemics.

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Distracted commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 9:52pm

Data summary on the worldometer page is fascinating how infection and death rates varies across the world.
Death rate in Germany is way lower than Italy.... presumably there are heaps more cases in Italy but they have not been tested. Hopefully the death rate is actually lower than initial reports, particularly if there is good medical systems.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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keano commented Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 10:44pm

Thanks Craig. If you're on the north coast of NSW, or any part of regional Australia for that matter, the hospital situation has been at capacity for well over a decade. The pressure of the increase of mental health problems, lack of funding for infrastructure and cost cutting makes the current situation a total cluster fuck. Listen to the medical profession. Do everything in your power not to get sick and keep those around you safe and well. I've run arts venues and companies in Australia for over 25 years. A big part of my family work in hospitals in regional Australia. Today cannot be described in words for my friends and colleagues in the arts and entertainment industry. We literally lost thousands of jobs today. The impact is overwhelming and many tears have and will continue to be shed. I needed to get out this arvo and, late, took the dog for a run on the beach, as we turned the point at the local I looked out at the growing number of cruise ships sitting off our regional port. Our hospitals can't cope with Craigs graphs above, looking up at the potential of these ships arriving , and having to be dealt with by regional hospitals in extreme circumstances, my thoughts reached to my brother, sister and step mother at the front line of the Health industry in regional Australia. It will take my industry years to recover and reset what happened to it in the last 5 days. If my industry are the first touch point, the infrastructure has been damaged in a way like we have never experienced. If this happens in Health......

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 2:49am

tbb visited Oz busiest GC Hospital today.
Underground Car Park 1st spot past the Boom Gate (Too Easy!)
Whole Wing was empty... tbb was alone! 80m x 30m (100 +seats) x 5 Big TV's
Walked around the Mausoleum & sighted other empty wings as empty as mine...
Total Outpatients usually number 3,000 today they numbered around 50 tops!
They even tried to lock me in, but escaped by the one last remaining exit.

Qldurrz had the Comm' Games Ghost Town practice drill...
If Govt tells people to fuck off because yer all gonna die! Qldurrz take that seriously.
I know! Pretty fucked up hey! Qldurrz are mental...
Truthfully! tbb also tried to back out of appointment but was caller #24 (Fuck it!)
Anyhow! Doctor & Nurses said all appointments are to be kept! Echo-cho-ho-0-0...

Note: Hospital + Cafeteria is down to the lone Hygienic (Entry/Exit)
Tip! Malls > Food Courts will likely follow the same as Fresh Food is next Hot Spot!
No longer have grubby pervs groping yer Melons...(All say aye!)
Might have to think about Freezing Staples very very soon.
Note! One entry with hand rub time will queue Bullies...Take Care...won't be pretty!

thermalben's picture
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thermalben commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 8:43am
goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 9:34am

India and Brazil less cases than Australia?

Pops's picture
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Pops commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 9:36am

I've seen a couple of medical types on social media post the same image, but with a speculative comment that the Japan data is confused by a lack of testing, and they're more likely to be closer to the european trajectories.

Still, suggests we should be looking at Singapore, S Korea, Hong Kong and plagiarising their tactics (but tweaking to fit our own societies eccentricities).

He who hesitates is lost

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 9:38am

This one's a bit of a shocker, check the UK previous prediction and new modeling - country reverses course and goes on lockdown:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/terrifying...

Pops's picture
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Pops commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 9:41am

@Craig,
I did a similar number crunching exercise at work yesterday (though without the pretty graphs).

Showed it to my boss. I'm working from home from today.

He who hesitates is lost

uncle_leroy's picture
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uncle_leroy commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 9:46am

The whole numbers game doesn't work when people are not being tested. Japan was first to come out and say they weren't testing, now the Australian health system is being strained and people are not being tested.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 9:50am

Hi!
It will be bad but death rate will be at the lower end of the spectrum.
Higher than Korea, lower than most others.
Health system coping strategies spread instantly around the world these days.
There will be dedicated respiratory hospitals in each major city. ED’s will be divided into respiratory and non-respiratory sections.
Whole wards dedicated to corona allows for non-invasive ventilation which has had good success in Italy and Germany, reducing requirements for ventilators.
Ventilators and ICU beds from private hospitals an untapped resource, not sure if they’re included in above charts.
Those who have recovered from corona become frontline care givers.
Non of these things are available in poor, cramped living conditions like for example Soweto townships. If virus goes through one of them death rate will probably be 20+%

velocityjohnno's picture
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velocityjohnno commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 10:00am

This kind of behaviour will slow the rate, well done parents:

https://thewest.com.au/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-crisis-north-cottesl...

This kind of behaviour won't. Seriously guys, it's too late by this time:

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/second-victorian-public-scho...

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Piers0 commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 10:55am

Piers0

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uncle_leroy commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 11:11am

Yes, can really only officially report on death rate, not number of infections.

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 12:22pm

It appears Korea has the most accurate denominator so far.
With a good medical system and accurate denominator Korea will probably be the gold standard in terms of survivability of the virus.
Germany or another country may better it.
I’m betting parts of Africa will have the worst.
Only thing in favour of townships of Africa is relative lack of movement in and out of them.
But if it gets in one, look out

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 12:52pm

Uncle Leroy, this is ICU rates and beds needed, not deaths.

Deaths will increase once pass that red point.

Keano, thanks for sharing mate and all the best.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 12:55pm

good onya craig

it's so disappointing that the public feel the need to do this independently. where is the leadership?

many pollies/docs breaking ranks with scotty from marketing nareative now

it really is up to the public now unfortunatly, get it together and keep it together. be nice

except to cunts

I focus's picture
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I focus commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 2:38pm

Uncle Leroy you are on the money Australia is way below the testing rates require for surveillance to determine who is infected and I mean everyone who is infected..

When you know who is infected then you have control over the correct or appropriate actions to take to control further infections.

This has been the consistent actions of those counties than have held their numbers down or regained some semblance of control (Korea) Australia on the other hand seems to be running more on modeling of numbers rather than a concerted effort of getting the real numbers.

I hope it's not a cost issue............hmmm

philosurphizingkerching's picture
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philosurphizing... commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 3:23pm

There is a virologist up here on the Northern Rivers who is doing her best to educate us all.
Here is her summary of what is known so far about this virus.
Symptoms of COVID-19 are variable.

"Symptom of CoVID-19 are non-specific and the disease presentation can range from no symptoms (asymptomatic) to severe pneumonia and death. A study of 41 patients[14] who were initially diagnosed with the outbreak (the diagnosis date was up to 2 January) found that the most common symptoms were fever (98%), cough (76%), myalgia or fatigue (44%), and atypical symptoms included sputum (28%), headache (8%), hemoptysis (5%) and diarrhea (3%). About half of the patients had dyspnea (the median from onset to dyspnea was 8 days). Lymphocytopenia was observed in 63% of patients. All patients had pneumonia."

Haemoptysis = coughing blood; lymphocytopenia = reduced lymphocytes in the blood; dyspnoea= difficulty breathing or laboured breathing.

This lady cannot stress enough the importance of social distancing.

One thing that concerns me is the need for antibiotics to treat pneumonia.

Will we have enough antibiotics to treat everyone ?.

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 4:59pm

Vaccine is no longer an option...

Medical Centres have banned Pathology services.
Outpost Pathology Service Centres Only.
Medical Staff told tbb today!
No reason given but assume it's to stop virus spread thru open Treatment Rooms.
The Mall type Outposts for us...mind the rush!

Also told that Nursing Homes refuse day outs & staff may soon reside on site!
Total Prison-like Lockdown 100% isolation...Go near a home & you'll be shot on site!

Teacher said that most Schools are now 100 students short & fading fast!
(Teacher : "1 Week Tops!") + very few schools can do On line (Only Private snobs!)
Trying to buy time off Easter but doubts of any real Educational Component!
Likely to be a Gap Year for Govt Schools (All Repeat a Grade?)

tbb reported that Hospital Pathology was a Ghost Town.
This may change now that GP clinics closed bloods.
Govt were already well behind on Measles Shots...

Pet Owners are refusing shots & No money-No vet bills "kill the pets"... (RSPCA)
UK/US Biggest Pet Shelters are closed...Oz is buying time!

All signs point to multiple disease breakouts off the back of Coronavirus!
Not to mention a less Healthy Nation with high % of Outpatient cancellations.
It's a National Health Crisis without the Corona'thingy ...no hiding this fact...

So all can see Pathology is down by 80% (Most likely caught up with Corona)
Any talk of Vaccine in this climate is so far removed from reality!
No you won't read about it & no reason to explain why!
Shh! Don't wake up the Nation but our Health System is in complete disarray.

Ask yourselves! If Seniors are most at Risk then why so few TV Ads & so late!
One month after...(Cartoons with an Ipads ..maybe not Grans cup of tea!)
Written & spoken on behalf of your Grandparent's Power of Attorney...your Govt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=25&v=4TOyLcureS4&feature=emb...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-14/the-federal-government-releases-c...

channel-bottom's picture
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channel-bottom commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 6:10pm

Philo, re antibiotics.

There are two types of pneumonia, viral and bacterial. Bacterial can be treated with antibiotics, not viral.

yorkessurfer's picture
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yorkessurfer commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 6:20pm

Interesting that self isolating doesn’t extend to ‘work for the dole programs?
quote:

“Work for the dole arrangements under the community development program (CDP) would continue, he said, “because communities are succinct and it is a defined group.

“They can continue with their activities, but not in large groups, in smaller groups, but we will look at every case on a case by case basis. And if there is Covid-19 or coronavirus, then the penalties will not apply.”

Nice to know that penalties will not apply if you catch corona while doing work for the dole?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/19/australia-coronavirus...

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher commented Thursday, 19 Mar 2020 at 6:29pm

[ Don't Panic ] Asthma Puffers SOLD OUT

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/asthma-puffers-sold-out-...

Govt to step in & stop prescription drug panic buys....

philosurphizingkerching's picture
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philosurphizing... commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 7:29am

Cheers c-b
I'm learning more all the time.
Bacterial pneumonia meaning caused by bacteria- can be treated by antibiotics.
Viral pneumonia meaning caused by virus - cannot be treated by antibiotics.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-what-happens-t...

philosurphizingkerching's picture
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philosurphizing... commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 12:53pm

Bacterial pneumonia caused most deaths in 1918 influenza pandemic
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/bacterial-pneumonia-caused...

''most victims succumbed to bacterial pneumonia following influenza virus infection''

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 2:39pm

Can someone explain Japan?

Still under a thousand cases despite early exposure.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 2:56pm

"Can someone explain Japan?

Still under a thousand cases despite early exposure."

clean and compliant...

and respect, so much repect...

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 3:05pm

didn't they have early shut-downs?

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donweather commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 3:29pm

Are you sure you're not an engineer Craig?

How do your infection predictions compare with the exponential historical infected numbers growth in Italy?

megzee's picture
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megzee commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 3:32pm

It makes you wonder how the virus spread.
I live and work in Vietnam which has it's most northerly border with China and with the CV began to make headlines, it was a natural assumption that it would spread through immediate neighbouring countries
Vietnam population 97 million with 85 CV cases to date and no recorded fatalities.
All entry visa applications denied as of the 15th March and no renewals for expats with expiring visas, so the shutdown here was pretty slow to get traction.
As a tit bit of non corona related info - Vietnam has so far 3000 motorbike related fatalities for 2020 and well on track to meet the total 2019 statistic of 14,000

It's easy to be brave from a distance.

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Distracted commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 3:40pm

Don’t know how to explain Japan, but how about the fatality rate in Germany, only 0.3%?

In Italy I’m wondering whether the infection rate is actually 340,000 and they are over run by mass infection rather than high fatality rate.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 3:45pm

there has to be a seasonal/temperature component, surely?

why so few cases in Indo/Vietnam etc etc

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 3:49pm

Don, so just checked and looks like Italy slowed the rate as it progressed so the forecast of infected cases were about 3 days ahead of actual recorded.

Latest update for Aus is still around that April 8-11 mark if my assumptions are true re ICU beds/admissions etc.

megzee's picture
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megzee commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 4:04pm

Interesting point freeride
Indonesia 279 million - 309 cases to date...

It's easy to be brave from a distance.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 4:18pm

"Don’t know how to explain Japan, but how about the fatality rate in Germany, only 0.3%?"

clean and compliant...

respect...

I reckon there's clearly a climatic element as suggested elsewhere. doesn't like the heat.

Korea vietnam. early hits, both shut down systematiccally, with lots of testing, korea: clean, compliant. vietnam: not as much but saved by warmer climate

Indo: messy as fuck, useless numbers, rich person outbreak in jakarta, saved by warmer climate?

....hope so...

Oz coming into winter flu season? not ideal...

ramadan/lebaran: fucking disaster waiting to happen...

sypkan's picture
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sypkan commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 4:19pm

indo numbers: no value

....possibly even more useless than china's...

megzee's picture
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megzee commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 4:33pm

true comment mate.....
Vietnam could be diddling the numbers as well....

It's easy to be brave from a distance.

megzee's picture
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megzee commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 4:42pm

Not the motorbike fatality numbers though.....they're as real as the day is long...….

It's easy to be brave from a distance.

simba's picture
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simba commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 5:02pm

you would think a country like india would be overrun with cases but like in a lot of warmer countries not so much...

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/coronavirus-update-total-cases-in-in...

simba

udo's picture
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udo commented Friday, 20 Mar 2020 at 5:14pm

serpentza - U tube
Westerner -14 yrs living in China..Wife is a Chinese Doctor. Some Corona Virus vids,