COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 9:22pm
Vic Local wrote:

" If the vaccine works, why doesn't it work?"
Fair dinkum burleigh, this has got to be one of the stupidest things the anti-vaxxers say.
Vaccines do work very well, just not perfectly.
Do you take the same attitude to seatbelts?
"Yeah me mate Wayno was wearing a seatbelt when he slammed his car into a tree and he died. Fark me, why would I wear a seatbelt, they don't work ya know. Me mate died wearing one so fuck em."

Ahhh the seatbelt theory.

Let's try this. Your immune system is your seatbelt, however the government has said that seatbelt isn't good enough, so we want to give you an extra seatbelt with no safety data.
Turns out the seatbelt they have given you is sticky tape, and you must put this sticky tape over your current seat belt for extra protection.

Only problem is the sticky tape keeps unpeeling, so you have to keep putting on more sticky tape over the top.

Roadkill currently has three layers of tape, parading around like a fool, and morons like yourself Vic tell him he looks good,

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 9:19pm

.

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 9:30pm

Good analogy Burleigh

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 9:49pm
shortenism wrote:

Good analogy Burleigh

Except it's a profoundly stupid analogy by a profoundly stupid person.
It's typical anti-vaxxer drivel, massively exaggerating the very rare problems with vaccines while completely ignoring the very real problems with unvaccinated people catching covid.
Have you idiots been paying attention to the situation in Europe? Covid is bloody rampant in children because they are mostly unvaccinated. Hospital systems are under severe stress and the WHO is predicting another 700,000 deaths by March 2022.
Pity being unvaccinated doesn't just impacts the anti-vax morons, You fucking idiots put other people's lives in danger. You're nothing but a bunch of selfish, stupid, chicken shit Karens who don't give a flying fuck about anyone but yourself.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 10:12pm
Vic Local wrote:
shortenism wrote:

Good analogy Burleigh

Except it's a profoundly stupid analogy by a profoundly stupid person.
It's typical anti-vaxxer drivel, massively exaggerating the very rare problems with vaccines while completely ignoring the very real problems with unvaccinated people catching covid.
Have you idiots been paying attention to the situation in Europe? Covid is bloody rampant in children because they are mostly unvaccinated. Hospital systems are under severe stress and the WHO is predicting another 700,000 deaths by March 2022.
Pity being unvaccinated doesn't just impacts the anti-vax morons, You fucking idiots put other people's lives in danger. You're nothing but a bunch of selfish, stupid, chicken shit Karens who don't give a flying fuck about anyone but yourself.

Maybe instead of putting the next piece of sticky tape over your seatbelt they can put it over your mouth Vic. What absolute dribble.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 10:45pm

Hey..Anyone know what's going on in the NT? I'm getting a heap of messages through friends on fb of indigenous communities under military control. They appear terrified and no one is communicating in or out for them. Anyone have more information on it? I can't share the fb links here. Staying impartial on this, just responding to a potential humanitarian crisis. Anyone have anything??

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 10:53pm

I have zerohedge...

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/australian-army-begins-transferring-c...

but you know... that's all conspiracy shit or something...

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 10:51pm
bluediamond wrote:

Hey..Anyone know what's going on in the NT? I'm getting a heap of messages through friends on fb of indigenous communities under military control. They appear terrified and no one is communicating in or out for them. Anyone have more information on it? I can't share the fb links here. Staying impartial on this, just responding to a potential humanitarian crisis. Anyone have anything??

All I’ve heard is anyone testing positive gets army escorted to howard springs

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 11:02pm

84 people in 7-day COVID lockdown in Byron Bay. https://www.echo.net.au/2021/11/84-people-in-7-day-covid-lockdown-in-byr.... Seems you don’t go home and isolate anymore , now you get police or army guards depending where you are

shortenism's picture
shortenism's picture
shortenism Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 11:05pm

Gold Burleigh bravo!

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 11:11pm

Jeezus what the fark?? Cheers fellas. Appreciate it. Keep sharing what you've got. Something very eggy about this and I think they need our help, urgently. Again, impartial to this. Genuinely worried for crew under Marshall law we didn't even know was happening. Why? What the fk is going on?
Anyone up there close to it? (Unlikely on SN). My mums in Darwin and she said something about being locked down because of Katherine...which is 300 barren desert kilometres away. Why lock Darwin down? No one in, no one out if Katherine. No one sees?

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 11:23pm

here's one of those freewheelin livestreamin antivaxxin right wingin extremin 'white supremacist' sites giving a full rundown on the NT thingy...

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=320580846267459&id=106373391...

haven't watched it yet, but they've got a blackfella a chattin...

which isn't very white supremacistin

in fact, it's actually quite left wingin...

ya know... indigenous voices and all that...

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 11:17pm

The vid I saw was a gathering of indigenous folk, with elders, women, young, pleading for help, saying they can't get their message out. Validity? I have no idea, but my gut instinct said real. I dunno, gotta be worth checking out? They said international armies were involved. Again impartial but surely if its even remotely possible this is true, we, as Australians need to look into it. Put the word out for more info crew. Ill try to find something from the ground to share.
Their general theme was, we are the test run for what's coming because they can get away with it here. Again, impartial, but please look into it crew.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 11:25pm

About 20 Australian Defence Force Personnel and army trucks are expected to be on the ground today, helping deliver emergency food packages to the residents of Binjari and Rockhole, and to coordinate the removal of close contacts. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-21/nt-explainer-on-new-cases-in-binj... Or there’s the Rebel news version https://www.rebelnews.com/australian_army_called_in_to_transfer_indigeno... What’s the real story ? Who knows for sure

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 11:33pm

Thanks Supa. Exactly, what's the real story? Without being there, who knows. That could be the whole point. None of us would be the wiser.
Full alert SN crew. Full alert.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Wednesday, 24 Nov 2021 at 11:37pm

“ An Aboriginal health worker infected in the Northern Territory's COVID-19 outbreak has slammed misinformation being spread online and defended the government's evacuations of positive cases and close contacts in remote communities.”

Hopefully there are no panic merchants spreading misinformation on Swellnet.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-24/nt-health-worker-positive-covid-c...

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:00am

Leaving out all of the conspiracy stuff,
The NT authorities have basically two choices: 1/ Lockdown, quarantine etc. or 2/ Don't lockdown, no quarantine etc.
If they choose option 2, and covid spreads through these communities and on to the rest of the state, a whole lot of people may end up dead. Which at a guess the NT gov would try to avoid.
The RAAF Tindal base is just down the road, so it would be logical to get them to help with transport. It's also one of the roles of the defence force, to assist in emergencies

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:04am

Andy M, no time to get personal. I had these messages sent to me. I didn't go looking for it. I feel damned if i do and damned if i don't share the information. I'm only interested in protecting and helping those who can't help themselves. Keep the personal out of this one mate. I've made it clear all along i'm only responding to what came to me tonight. If you come across any other information, please share it here mate.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:06am

btw funny how this highly infectious disease, that i know nobody, at all who has ever had it, is wreaking havoc in bumfuck NT. The mind boggles.

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:10am

yeh, really can't win with this one gland...

seem brutal and get on top of it... or be scared to act and wind with full scale disaster...

anyway, Im sure the worst of the bullshit is bullshit...

https://afipn.com.au/first-nations-locked-down/?fbclid=IwAR349S8uiyUTCjG...

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:00am
bluediamond wrote:

btw funny how this highly infectious disease, that i know nobody, at all who has ever had it, is wreaking havoc in bumfuck NT. The mind boggles.

Seriously, What planet have you been living on for the last two year BD? Did you not see the deaths and hospital systems collapsing in Northern Italy, then Spain, then NY, then the rest of the USA, Europe, Central America and Brazil. Did you miss the Delta wave in India and now Europe again?
What exactly would convince you that Delta is a highly infectious virus?

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:35am

Jeez there’s some alarmist piffle on this page.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:52am
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:15am
seeds wrote:

BD this might help
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-24/nt-health-worker-positive-covid-c...

Seeds, It might help. It should help, but it probably won't help.
If BD has gone too far down the rabbit hole he needs professional help. And I don't say that lightly.

etarip's picture
etarip's picture
etarip Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:18am

From that article:
"To see so much bullshit being shared around, especially by people that have no love for Indigenous people suddenly [jumping] on the 'genocide' bandwagon when it suits them is f***ed," Mr Ellis wrote in a Twitter thread.

- and that’s the issue with this misinfo campaign, maligning and mischaracterizing the efforts and actions of the health workers and those supporting them.

Patrick's picture
Patrick's picture
Patrick Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:43am

Classic. Last night, to dispel rumours, I posted on here updates about what the army is doing in NT. 90 minutes later people are in a state of alert and spreading rumours again instead of reading the previous page.
It's easier to react emotionally than calmly investigate.
No womder it's a murky soup of info on the net.

gsco's picture
gsco's picture
gsco Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:52am

Just sharing some facts.

covid cases: I know of a decent number of people who've had or currently have covid.

A very anti-vax mate of mine in Europe had it a few weeks ago and recovered, but said it was the worst cold/flu he's ever had. He's a good surfer, super fit and strong person, bout 40yrs old, etc.

My entire brother's family of 6 in the US currently all have it, and he said as does like half his kids' schoolmates. Bro's family is all vaccinated and said covid hasn't been that bad for them.

A few (not sure exactly how many) of my Chinese wife's extended family in China have had it. All were vaccinated with a Chinese vaccine and all recovered.

vax symptoms: Also for the record, pretty well everyone I know have been vaccinated, and I know no-one who had any adverse reactions apart from minor flu-like symptoms.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 8:12am
bluediamond wrote:

btw funny how this highly infectious disease, that i know nobody, at all who has ever had it, is wreaking havoc in bumfuck NT. The mind boggles.

Only takes one person to infect a community, and these communities often have over crowding housing issues and very low vaccination rates so often more vulnerable.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 8:28am

BTW. a fully vaccinated friend in Germany got Covid a few weeks back, only in his 30s very fit and healthy, but seems like he still got knocked around a bit like bad case of the flue, said his full vax GF & best mate same.

Bit depressing, by the time winter comes around in Aus our vaccinations will possibly be less effective by then unless have booster.

san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 8:37am

"Merely asserting a right to freedom of speech doesn’t make it true.”

https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/podcasts/what-does-our-constitution-say-a...

Fliplid's picture
Fliplid's picture
Fliplid Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 8:47am

@bluediamond : "btw funny how this highly infectious disease, that i know nobody, at all who has ever had it, is wreaking havoc in bumfuck NT. The mind boggles."

About to run through a few indigenous communities bluediamond.

Considering those with comorbidities are more adversely affected than healthy people and the populations in these communities have high levels of diabetes, cardio vascular disease, etc I guess the authorities are trying to seperate people with covid from those that don't have it.

Sounds dramatic to have the military involved but logistically it is the best option regarding manpower, transport and coordination

The alternative would be to leave the infected people in the communities to self isolate, which is hard to do, and as we have seen around the country this is prone to be ineffective at times.

What would be the outcome if they were left in place? Well some say many deaths, others say nothing to worry about as covid is a hoax.

Personally I'd take the punt and seperate them from community for 2 weeks where they are closer to medical care if needed.

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 9:15am

"More than 80 backpackers at a Byron Bay hostel on the NSW north coast have been placed into a week-long lockdown after a guest tested positive to COVID-19.

"Ballina MP Tamara Smith posted on Facebook on Wednesday night about the situation at the Aquarius Backpackers. “I’m closely monitoring a situation in Byron Bay this evening where a positive COVID-19 case and 84 close contacts have been identified at Aquarius Backpackers in Byron Bay,” she said.

"NSW Health has locked down the hostel for seven days, impacting 84 guests.

"NSW Police have placed a 24-hour guard on the hostel to ensure compliance."

That bloody PSYCHOPATH Andrews locking up INNOCENT people again! POLICE STATE!!!

Oh, wait ...

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:06am
bluediamond wrote:

Andy M, no time to get personal. I had these messages sent to me. I didn't go looking for it. I feel damned if i do and damned if i don't share the information. I'm only interested in protecting and helping those who can't help themselves. Keep the personal out of this one mate. I've made it clear all along i'm only responding to what came to me tonight. If you come across any other information, please share it here mate.

BD, your response was cause for concern.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:05am

Bet there's a baby boom 9 months from now from that Hostel.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:12am

Wild and frenzied fingering around the clock.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:26am

A few things. Firstly, the 'alarmist' reaction was purely from having been sent a video from an indigenous community of very scared people calling for help. What sort of person would i be to not at least ask if anyone knows more. When it comes to the ABC, i've already discussed them previously in this thread and the misinformation they print, so i'll never take what they say as gospel again.
Some other things. Maybe it's because i'm in WA, and we're in a false sense of security here, or maybe it's a different perspective to when you are right in the middle of it like you crew over there. I'm losing friends from my questioning. And that sucks. A very good friend of mine is a doctor in the Emergency Department of a major Sydney hospital. She absolutely ripped into me and my friends on FB regarding my concerns about vaccines. Of note...She didn't actually address my questions, but she was very passionate about the reality of covid. She's hot as too so to see our friendship soured by that sucked. Also, i work in hospitality over here, and come December 31 i most likely won't have a job. Not just because of my own concerns, but every single person in the place i work is in the same boat. The business simply won't be allowed to run anymore. So there's more loss.
I'm now considered as somewhat of an outcast to my family for not 'doing the right thing'. So yeah, i have a good perspective of the reality of what's going on.
My fundamental philosophy though is to not let evil and tyranny take away our freedoms. That's what i'm seeing. When tobacco is legal, and alcohol, and they kill so many, it's obvous that this isn't about health. Otherwise, why would governments just allow people to kill themselves and clog up hospitals? They DONT want us dying do they?? Also there are proven alternative solutions out there that have been gone over and over on here, that have been banned. There are obvious concerns about the safety of the vaccines based on real life data and there is doubt over the effacacy of it.
So if i need professional help, fair enough, but i'm aware of the situation i'm putting myself in, but still willing to do it because i believe things aren't right.
You VicLocal, could possibly consider your own words, considering the amount of time you're on here and the amount of vitriol and anger you spew forth. That to me, is in need of serious professional help.
Anyway, i'll bow out of this convo. Thats my thoughts, there's nothing more to add to it.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:38am

Maybe having a more in-depth chat with your doctor friend would be beneficial.
But you'd have to go in with an open mind, which might be difficult at this stage of the game.
The fact that you are losing friends and becoming an outcast should be a wake up call.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:50am

Consider this your first therapy sesh, if you're willing VicLocal. It's an hour...but it's free!!
You too Andy M!!

&t=512s

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:58am

Therapy for what?
All this stuff is clearly negatively impacting on your life, I don't know why you continue to treat it as a jolly lark.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:56am

You could probably cut straight to the 13min mark VL. Ok over and out.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:59am

You consider yourself one of those who are going to "wake the people up"?

Ego and hubris.

Johknee's picture
Johknee's picture
Johknee Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:00am
bluediamond wrote:

She's hot as too so to see our friendship soured by that sucked......

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:02am

This NT lockdown is just fuel on the misinformation fire. They're having a field day. I regularly check the socials of a few know misinformation spreaders and it's like a script.

Very interesting/concerning how well targeted the content they share is. The creators of this stuff have played the freedom card, the segregation card and now the first peoples/stolen generation card. Highly inappropriate and downright offensive.

Dear freedom fighters, try to wrap your heads around how bad it would be if covid spread in remote communities. Whilst you privileged f wits complain, with easy access to vaccines and hospitals, covid would simply rip through. How would that look? How would the gov and people of Australia look? White folk in the cities are fine but remote communities just left to suffer?

Yeah...just keep sharing the misinformation, great idea, you're scared of the vax, so keep believing it's all a big plan. Idiots....

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:17am

ahh...always the name calling from these pro covid types. Never from those opposed to it. Why the harsh name calling all the time? Something fundamentally psychologically wrong there.

fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21's picture
fitzroy-21 Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:25am

The situation in the NT is that it has got into a couple of communities in and around Katherine. Some further afield (Robinson River). They have locked a few of the communities down to stop the spread. Main problem being, community members move around regularly and cover big distances to visit family, friends etc. So extra police and defence have been bought in as a preventative measure.
Two nights ago, a local lady and her friend from Binjari decided to evade authorities and managed to get a taxi to Katherine area, walk around visiting friends etc. Now they are trying to trace their movements and contain the contacts.
Due to the ability of regular "walkabout" throughout the NT, authorities and communities are very concerned, and rightfully so, as this has a high potential of getting out of control, particularly to all the outstations and communities, the locals are genuinely worried.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:26am
Stok wrote:

This NT lockdown is just fuel on the misinformation fire. They're having a field day. I regularly check the socials of a few know misinformation spreaders and it's like a script.

Very interesting/concerning how well targeted the content they share is. The creators of this stuff have played the freedom card, the segregation card and now the first peoples/stolen generation card. Highly inappropriate and downright offensive.

Dear freedom fighters, try to wrap your heads around how bad it would be if covid spread in remote communities. Whilst you privileged f wits complain, with easy access to vaccines and hospitals, covid would simply rip through. How would that look? How would the gov and people of Australia look? White folk in the cities are fine but remote communities just left to suffer?

Yeah...just keep sharing the misinformation, great idea, you're scared of the vax, so keep believing it's all a big plan. Idiots....

"Dear freedom fighters, try to wrap your heads around how bad it would be if covid spread in remote communities"

They don't care...most can't think outside their immediate bubble. This is why we vaccinate to protect the vulnerable but selfish pricks make it about themselves.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:42am
bluediamond wrote:

ahh...always the name calling from these pro covid types. Never from those opposed to it. Why the harsh name calling all the time? Something fundamentally psychologically wrong there.

Poor effort to play the victim card.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:44am
bluediamond wrote:

ahh...always the name calling from these pro covid types. Never from those opposed to it. Why the harsh name calling all the time? Something fundamentally psychologically wrong there.

“Pro covid” eh? man you’re a twisted unit.
Pretty sure everyone is “anti covid” bd, but you keep going on doing what you do best.
Might grab the popcorn and stand back and watch this one.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:51am

Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:05pm
bluediamond wrote:

ahh...always the name calling from these pro covid types. Never from those opposed to it. Why the harsh name calling all the time? Something fundamentally psychologically wrong there.

WTF..you never read the anti vaxers in here ranting and name calling? That's convenient of you to ignore.