The high generates a broad coverage of E’ly tradewinds in the Southern and Eastern Coral Sea and then a more focused fetch of ENE winds as it becomes concentrated into an offshore trough.
Typically tradewind swells improve in quality as the fetch “matures” and wavelengths draw out. This tendency will be mitigated by freshening N’lies but does offer good prospects for backbeaches throughout the entire region.
This allows a broad, but weak area of Tradewinds to develop through the Coral Sea, with just enough coverage in the crucial area SW of New Caledonia down to the Fraser Coast to allow some useful tradewind swell to build through Tues and Wed.
Following this rapid spike in wind and swell the week settles down quickly as strong high pressure moves in from the Bight across the south-east interior and becomes flabby, leading to settled conditions and small surf to end the working week
We’re now on the tail end of the swell from the Tasman low, with a last little fun sting in the end of the tail expected this weekend and some tricky (largely unfavourable) wind shifts expected.
The broad supporting fetch is better aimed at the East Coast but not especially strong and the system is quite mobile, drifting away through today and briefly flaring up tomorrow as it moves over New Zealand overnight Thursday.
This week will be dominated by a low in the Tasman, which is expected to form tomorrow along a NW-SE angled trough line extending from far NENSW across the Tasman sea down to the North Island.
A SE/NW angled trough in the Tasman is likely to deepen on Tuesday, possibly forming a surface low. GFS model has this low forming off the Central NSW coast, EC forms a low much further north in the Tasman, close to Norfolk Island, with a very different surf outlook from Tuesday onwards.
Remarkably, mid period energy from the E, caused by a persistent long E’ly tradewind fetch in the South Pacific, will still be chugging away in the background with both size and consistency slowly easing back. If you've missed out, might be time to down tools tomorrow to grab a few before it's all gone.
To the East a persistent, broad E’ly tradewind fetch is slowly contracting Eastwards, although windspeeds have been increased along the northern flank of a large high by an area of low pressure. This system has already produced 3 days of surf and is expected to supply a slowly diminishing signal until Thurs/Fri, from a peak today.