A series of troughs will create flukey, but generally average waves to finish the week. This is a shame as we have some fun swell on the way.
The strengthening trough off the Fraser Coast reached maturity today and will slowly weaken from this evening onwards. It’ll still linger in some way shape or form through Wednesday afternoon, which means rideable surf from this neck of the woods until Thursday or early Friday at least, albeit with a slow and steady downwards trend in the size department.
The forecast charts look impressive with lots of sizeable swell from the NE, but in general it’s all just locally generated windswell.
The synoptic charts are about as complex as they can get.
Before we get into the main synoptic even of the forecast period - a large, slow moving trough over the eastern states - it’s worth pointing out that a small low will form in the central/southern Tasman Sea on Tuesday.
It's looking like a points-only affair this weekend. Bring the crowd repellant! More in the Forecaster Notes.
We’re looking at a blocking synoptic pattern across the Tasman region this weekend, maintaining fresh to strong trade winds that’ll keep E’ly swells at elevated heights in SE Qld both days.
Now, these minor S’ly swells are all well and good, but how about the possible N’ly swell from TC Owen?
As was discussed in Wednesday’s notes, a developing tropical low near the Solomon Islands today is expected to drift SW towards the south-eastern tip of PNG over the weekend, and strengthen into Tropical Cyclone status. More in the Forecaster Notes.
The synoptics are pretty dynamic. We’ve got a rapidly deepening low off the Central NSW Coast that’s expected to deliver 40-50kt winds today, and in the process generate a hefty short range south swell for Northern NSW.