South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long range E swells show Mon, peak Tues and ease Wed
• Dynamic situation with ECL forming off MNC O/night Mon into Tues
• Local E’ly swells blend with long range swells Tues into Wed with strong to gale force W’lies
• Directional S swell across the MNC to North Coast later Wed into Thurs
• Stronger S/SE swell building Fri, persisting into Sat before easing with lighter SW winds
• Small leftovers Sun with N’ly winds
• Check back Wed for latest update, very dynamic situation

Recap

Plenty of fun size swell over the weekend with 2-3ft surf Sat,,mostly from the S/SE and some bigger E swell filling into 3 occ. 4ft on Sun. Winds were offshore both mornings with a’noon SE breezes Sat, light and variable Sun. Winds have swirled around today’s a trough deepens close to the NSW border with offshore winds, tending SE-NE and now clocking around SW-S.  A dynamic week is ahead with a deepening trough expected to spawn an ECL late today or o/night into Tues.

E'ly swells filling in on the Sunshine Coast beachies

This week (Jun30- Jul 4)

The Tasman Sea is poised to explode into storminess with a pair of troughs now in action. A Coral Sea trough deepens into a small low and becomes continuous with a NSW coastal trough which deepens today and forms an ECL over the next 12-24hrs. By first light tomorrow morning and ECL or variant thereof will be positioned off the lower end of the MNC, likely due east of Seal Rocks. Areas to the north of this low will be receiving W’ly to W/SW’ly gales to severe gales (storm force gusts possible) with winds moderating north of Coffs Harbour  while to the south we’ll see a narrow band of S’ly to SW’ly gales establish southwards to Ulladulla.  Winds on the south-east to north-east flanks of the low will be gale force E to E/NE infeeds, extending out into the Tasman and Southern Coral Sea, aimed at Central/Southern NSW. 

In the short run, we’ll see the low deepen and be off the lower end of the MNC by dawn, with strong/gale force SW-W winds extending north of the low, moderating but still strong up to the border and into SEQLD. We’ll see be seeing a blend of long range and more local E swells from winds feeding into the Coral Sea portion of the low with size to 3-4ft, occ. bigger sets.

The low remains close to the coast into Wed morning , hovering off the Hunter under current modelling as a powerful system. If it behaves as expected we’re looking at gales to severe gales (possible storm force gusts) from the SW-S/SW along the coast but tucked in tight behind the Hunter curve. It will be wild and woolly south of the MNC, with fresh W’lies across the f/cast region. E’ly swells from the infeed into the low maintain 3-4ft surf through the region. We may see a late kick in S swell from winds just extending past the Hunter curve through the morning, up to 3-5ft along the North Coast but still subject to low confidence.

Thurs looks a better bet for S swell as complex low consisting of two low centres rotating around each other in a Fujiwhara effect pushes S’ly gales further into the Tasman. Expect S swell across NENSW to 3-5ft, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD mixed in with smaller E swell to 3ft. Winds remain W to SW across the region.

Confidence is lower as we head into the back half of the week.  There is a modelled scenario where the secondary low slingshots around the primary low and aims up S-S/SE winds at NSW. That would see a rebuild in size from that direction later into Fri. Potentially up into the 6ft range with bigger sets at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches. 

Keep tabs on comments and updates in real time. 

This weekend (Jul 5-6)

Conditions will be settling down into the weekend with the ECL expected to rotate out of the swell window later Fri into Sat and high pressure moving over over the inland and then off the NSW Coast on Sat.

That should bring settled weather, light winds trending N’ly on Sat with winds potentially swinging even more NW on Sun as a broad inland low approaches from the W. 

Plenty of S/SE swell to 3-5ft on Sat in NENSW, smaller 3ft in SEQLD, dropping through the day.

By Sun we’ll be mopping up with small leftovers from the S-SE to 2-3ft. 

Next week (July 7 onwards)

Nothing much to get frothed on next week- although we will probably be stoked to have some clean-up weather. The broad low moves off the South Coast and tracks south, aiming swell generating winds at Tasmania that are likely positioned too far south to have much impact on the NSW Coast. That would see small surf and offshore winds for the first half of next week. 

Plenty to focus on short term with the upcoming ECL so check back Wed for the latest.