South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small increase in SE swell likely Thurs with increasing S-SE winds
• Larger increase in E/SE-E'ly trade swell Fri and into the weekend with Tradewinds in Coral Sea
• Lighter S-SE winds over the weekend 
• Fun tradeswells continue into early next week
• S pulses likely to kick off Thurs and continue into next weekend
• Another tradewind band looks to set-up late next week into the weekend with small, fun tradeswell medium term

Recap

Very tiny surf to recap with yesterday in the 1-1.5ft range with an occ. 2ft set at the best swell magnets under offshore W tending SW’ly winds. Winds are still offshore this morning tending to mod S’lies and surf is still in the tiny range (1-1.5ft) with a just rideable wave for logs and beginners. 

Micro surf this morning- fun tradeswells on the way

This week (June 18-20)

No great change to the outlook since Mon. High pressure is slowly moving over inland NSW, expected to reach the Tasman later today into tomorrow. A weakening low is also moving slowly, tracking SE of Tasmania as it dissipates. There is a trough in the Coral Sea with an associated cloud band which is expected to play a role in focussing Tradewinds which form up later this week on the back of a SE surge. Compared to earlier model runs the trough and E’ly dip aren’t expected to form any major swell generating low pressure through the Coral Sea or South Pacific. The broad SE’ly pattern which sets up in the Coral Sea gets disrupted next week by cold fronts but longer term looks to set up again as we move to the end of the month. 

In the short run we’ll see a mix of small S and SE swells developing on the back of a SE surge up the coast through tomorrow. No great size expected but short range swells to 2 occ. 3ft should build in during the day under mod/fresh SE winds, lighter SW inshore early. 

Similar into Fri morning with morning offshore SW breezes tending to mod-fresh S/SE- SE breezes as the high moves over coastal NSW with a firm ridge setting up along the sub-tropical coast. A surfable blend of mostly short range SE swells and developing E/SE trade swell keeps surf in the 2 occ. 3ft range. 

This weekend (Jun 21-22)

We’ll go through the winter solstice with a fun, little tradeswell in the water. The coastal ridge weakens a notch so local winds look OK- light W-SW early tending to light S/SE-SE, more E’ly on Sunday. They’ll be lighter the further south you go (stronger on the Sunshine Coast). 

Surf-wise E/SE tradeswell offers up 2-3ft surf Sat and a notch bigger Sun- more 3ft+ on the sets. A blend of beachies and small point surf should offer a fairly wide spot selection over the weekend, sand permitting. 

Next week (Jun 23 onwards)

Still expecting winds to shift N through NW and likely freshen early next week- especially south of the border- as fronts approach from the W and dominant high pressure drifts eastwards. 

Fun E’ly  swell from the trade fetch keeps a 3ft wave on the beachies for Mon and Tues with morning offshore likely tending N-NE in the a’noon, possibly fresh across NENSW. 

By mid week winds should swing W’ly as a front passes through Bass Strait and a deep, compact low tracks SE of Tasmania. W’ly gales out of Bass Strait and SW gales adjacent to Tasmania are both swell sources for NSW, with the first pulse of S swell likely later Thurs and a stronger signal Fri. 

Nothing too solid at this stage as fetches are poorly aligned and moving quickly through the swell window. We should see surf in the 2-3ft range Thurs, up a notch Fri. Not much will get north of the border where small E'ly swells should hold surf in the 2ft range. We’ll fine tune size and arrival on Fri. Winds will shift SW then S-SE as a new high pressure ridge fills in.

Further S’ly pulses look likely into the weekend as a slow moving polar low tracks through Tasman Sea longitudes. There is a low forming in Tongan longitudes next week but moving away as it does so, reducing swell potential. It may offer up potential for a small E’ly pulse medium term, we’ll report back Fri on that.

High pressure moves into the Tasman during this period, setting up another tradewind flow in the Coral Sea, with SE winds through the sub-tropics, stronger in QLD.

Check back Fri for the latest.