South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Reinforcing S/SE swell Sat (with some smaller windswell in the mix), easing into Sun
• W/SW-SW winds early Sat tending S though the day (stronger on MNC)
• SW-W/SW tending SE winds Sun
• Easing S/SE swell Mon with SW tending SE winds
• Few small days Tues-Thurs 
• Tropics fires up next week with long E’ly fetch developing as a minimum 
• Low pressure may form in the Coral Sea and drift into the Tasman with a significant E swell on the radar for next weekend
• Low confidence in specifics this far out so check back Mon for latest update

Recap

Fun sized S-S/SE swells built to 3ft+ across NENSW yesterday, remaining tiny in SEQLD under all day offshore W-SW winds. Still some sets to 3-4ft across NENSW S exposed breaks this morning with offshore winds, with tiny surf in SEQLD, topping out at 2ft at the most reliable S swell magnets. 

Nice lines from the S/SE this morning, bigger south of the border

This weekend (Jun 14-15)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. We’ve got a small low pressure trough moving north from the Hunter up towards the MNC, expected to fizzle out and move offshore through tomorrow. In it’s wake we’ll see high pressure move from the inland over the Tasman, bringing lighter winds and more settled conditions as it moves away. We’ll still see some moderate S’ly flow tomorrow as the trough moves away, with SW winds inshore early, tending S’ly at mod paces through the day. 

Surf-wise, the slow moving Tasman Low is now on it’s last legs as it drifts across New Zealand so we’ll see that swell source trending down over the weekend after a last little pulse o/night into tomorrow morning. 4ft sets on offer tomorrow (occ. 5footer is possible at the best swell magnets) with size and consistency softening through the a’noon. Expect smaller 2 occ. 3ft sets at the best SEQLD S swell magnets and northern corners. There’ll be some shorter range S swell in the mix from the low pressure trough adding some smaller energy into the mix. 

By Sun it’ll be trending downwards- mostly 2ft with the very occ. 3ft set for the early, becoming 2ft or less through the day. Perfect winds for Sun though make the mop up worthwhile with light offshores and light S-SE breezes in the a’noon. 

Next week (Jun 16-20)

Not much action to start next week with weak high pressure in the Tasman and fronts being shunted southwards. Pencil in tiny days Mon-wed at this stage, possibly Thurs as well.

From there we have interesting developments in the eastern swell window. The crux of that is strengthening high pressure near New Zealand and then in the Tasman. On it’s own that will see a broad E’ly fetch develop likely in the New Caledonia quadrant, extending into the South Pacific slot. GFS adds to that recipe for a round of (sizey) trade swell with a deepening trough in the Coral Sea which spawns a surface low mid week, currently modelled to track southwards into the Tasman (see below). 

If that comes to pass we’re looking at a significant swell from the E/NE though E late next week into the weekend.

Size may reach that 6ft mark under the optimum scenario.
Too early to have any confidence in specifics so check back in Mon and we’ll have a much clearer understanding of how it will play out. 

Until then, have a great weekend!