South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S swells build Thurs across NENSW, just showing in SEQLD by close of play with SW-S winds
• Still solid from the S Fri with morning W-SW winds tending S’ly
• Fun sized S swells Sat, easing into Sun
• Fun sized E swells over the weekend with SW-SE winds
• Long range E swells show Mon, peak Tues and ease Wed
• Long period S swell shows later Mon, persists Tues before easing
• Large S tending SE swells now on the radar next week if deep low forms in Tasman as modelled
• Check back Fri for latest update, very dynamic situation

Recap

E-E/NE swells from a retreating trade fetch have held sets to 3ft across the region - slow at times and affected by N tending NW winds yesterday. Winds are now tending more NW through W/NW, tending hard W’ly through the day as a strong front sweeps across the SE of the continent. 

Clean beachies on the Sunshine Coast as winds swing more W'ly

This week (June 25-27)

Associated with todays cold front is a low currently just to the SE of Tasmania and expected to track NE into the Tasman. Gale force W’ly winds are already being observed through Bass Strait with those winds expected to tend SW and propagate northwards through the day. That proximate fetch of SW-S/SW winds will be the main swell source in the short term. There’s also a much deeper fetch of SW gales connected to a polar low which is transiting the far southern reaches of the Tasman which will supply reinforcing S’ly groundswell. In the eastern swell window a massive high east of New Zealand and tropical depression in Tongan longitudes is reaching peak intensity and expected to send some meaningful E’ly groundswell towards the eastern seaboard, making landfall over the weekend and next week. More frontal activity through the lower Tasman keeps the southern swell window active medium term while the Tasman Sea now looks like showing enhanced storminess with major models in broad agreement over a large, complex surface low developing and good odds for a prolonged M/L swell event. 

In the short run the trend will be up through tomorrow, as the fetch of gales slingshots up the coast. Initial S swell to 2-3ft across NENSW (tiny in SEQLD) looks to build steadily through the day with a more pronounced upwards trend to 4-6ft at S exposed breaks into the mid-late a’noon S swells showing late in the day across the border to 2-3ft at S magnets (remaining small from the E/NE on the Sunshine Coast). Fresh W-W/SW winds track SW fairly early then tend fresh S’ly before moderating a notch in the late a’noon. A fairly typical winter S swell event.

Winds start to moderate through Fri as the low moves away but remain mod/fresh. Mod W/SW-SW breezes will clock fresh S’y before tending SE at mod paces in the a’noon. Still plenty of size with dominant mid-period S swell to 5-6ft (still some bigger sets at exposed S facing breaks), smaller 3ft at S swell magnets in SEQLD. Small E/NE swells keep 2ft sets on the open beaches. 

This weekend (Jun 28-29)

The weekend is looking good as far as conditions go with light offshore winds Sat tending to light/mod S-SE breezes (stronger on the Sunshine Coast), similar Sun with winds tending more SE-E through thea’noon . All day surfing should be on the cards both days for most of the region - Sunshine Coast looks to have a stronger onshore flow with a firmer ridge along the coast north of Moreton Island. 

Surf-wise both days look active with plenty of both longer period S and mid period S/SE swell Sat as the low tracks towards New Zealand. That mix should offer up at least 3-4ft of quality surf with bigger sets likely at S swell magnets. 

By Sun size from the S will be dropping down into the 2-3ft range, easing though the day with a building signal of long range E swell offering inconsistent sets to 3 occ. 4ft. Plenty of fun waves over the weekend. 

Next week (Jun 30 onwards)

Major upgrade now becoming increasingly likely for next week. 

To start, we’ll see light winds Mon and Tues tending to weak S’lies as a weak, troughy feature between two high pressure cells moves off the NSW central coast. 

E’ly swell from the South Pacific fetch fills in further in through the day and offering up quality but very inconsistent 4ft sets with some bigger ones possible at quality E swell magnets. That swell extends into Tues at similar levels before easing into Wed.

From Tues July 1 the situation becomes extremely dynamic. We’ll sketch it out here, with the expectation of possible major revision as we get closer to the event.

The trough off the NSW Coast deepens Tues, with a large high in the Bight. That should see a surface low develop in the Tasman off the Hunter/MNC region. W-SW winds would freshen as it does so on Wed. We may see some more local NE-E/NE swell from winds infeeding into the low along with the E’ly groundswell in the water. 

A much more major local swell event would overshadow this mid-week if the low deepens as currently modelled with new S swell becoming large through the day on Wed (ballpark: 8ft, larger surf possible).

The low may occupy the central Tasman as it reaches peak intensity with SE gales aimed back at the NSW Coast and large S/SE-SE tending E/SE angled surf through Thurs/Fri. 

Way too far out to have any confidence in specifics but early model agreement is a good sign as far as the event itself is concerned so take it as a heads up and start pencilling in large surf next week now. 

We’ll come back Fri and see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then!