South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf across the region Tues-Wed with light winds
• Small increase in SE swell likely Thurs with increasing S-SE winds
• Larger increase in E/SE-E'ly trade swell possible Fri and into the weekend as E’ly dip develops in Coral Sea
• Easing E’ly swells into next week
• Still low confidence in size due to model divergence, so check back Wed for latest updates
• S swells return medium term as fronts push into the Tasman

Recap

South quadrant swells held in nicely over the weekend, coming in at the top or over f/cast expectations with favourable morning breezes and light/mod a’noon SW-S winds. Sat saw surf holding in the 3-4ft range with smaller 2ft sets at S magnets in SEQLD while Sun was still offering up 3-4ft surf at favourable S swell magnets in NENSW, remaining 2ft or less in SEQLD. Still the occ. 3ft set this morning at S swell magnets in NENSW, remaining mostly tiny in SEQLD under offshore breezes now tending light SW to S/SE.

Still some energy from the S over the weekend in NENSW, less so north of Cape Byron and Point Danger

This week (June 16-20)

High pressure over Australia and high pressure SE of NZ are leaving a gap across the Tasman at present, with a weak low and front just to the east of Tasmania. The low and front dissipate as they move into the Tasman. A low is currently forming N of the north Island. This system is modelled to deepen over the short term but it tracks SE and rotates away from our swell window as it does so- very much reducing the swell generating potential for the eastern seaboard. The high over Australia eventually tracks into the Tasman late this week with a strengthening trend. Model divergence remains pronounced for the outcomes from this, with GFS still suggesting some kind of trough/easterly dip and enhanced E’ly swells. The European model has a more subdued outlook with a weaker high and trade-wind band remaining further north in line with seasonal norms. GFS seems to be the outlier here, so we’ll continue to monitor through the week with a more conservative outlook as the most likely outcome. 

In the short run we’ll see the weakening low and front drive a synoptic NW tending W’ly flow across temperate NSW with a light/variable flow expected up here in the sub-tropics. We’ve got a couple of really tiny, weak days of surf ahead-with no major swell sources and just a trickle of tiny, flukey S-S/SE swell expected to show on the S swell magnets to 1-2ft. Perfect conditions for getting a small boat across the bars, or inshore diving or rockfishing exposed ledges though. If you can find a good bank on open stretches you may find a just rideable wave but apart from that expect tiny/flat surf through Tues and Wed. 

By Thurs we’ll see a developing ridge across the sub-tropics with winds shifting S-SE and strengthening through the day to mod paces. Not much surf to start but through the a’noon we should start to see some short range SE swell fill in from the ridge. As noted above, GFS has a stronger high and ridge and a more bullish outlook with surf building to 2-3ft through the day, while EC would suggest smaller surf to 2ft. 

Both models are hinting at a  troughy area SW of New Caledonia by the end of the week, with GFS suggesting an E’ly dip focussing a stronger E’ly fetch aimed at the sub-tropics, while EC maintains it as a broad, undeveloped troughy area. 

This weekend (Jun 21-22)

The weekend surf outlook very much depends on how the E’ly dip/trough develops in the Coral Sea late this week, into the weekend. 

We can be reasonably confident on local winds with a high pressure ridge maintaining a moderate SE flow with lighter SW winds inshore early. 

If the E’ly dip develops as GFS model proposes we’ll be seeing some chunky E/SE-E’ly swell developing over the weekend.

Best case scenario is surf building into the 3-4ft range Sat, bigger 4-5ft range Sun. Morning winds should offer clean windows at beachies before winds blow out open spots and favour the sheltered points. 

The less optimistic outlook is 2-3ft surf Sat, building a notch into Sun. We’ll see how the models are shaping up on Wed. 

Next week (Jun 23 onwards)

Winds will ease Mon and then shift N through NW and likely freshen early next week as fronts approach from the W and dominant high pressure drifts eastwards.Still uncertainty over tropical developments but an easing of E’ly swell is likely, unless the trough/dip really winds up and deepens into a low as it moves towards New Zealand. That is an outcome still in play. 

From mid next week we should see action return to the south as fronts push into the Tasman.

EC has a strong series of fronts suggesting sizey S swells later next week, GFS is more conservative and pushes the timeline further out to late next week.

We’ll pencil in a return to seasonal south swells from mid next week and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then!