Fun round of winter tradeswell ahead
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri June 20th)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Fun sized tradeswell over the weekend
- Lighter S-SE winds over the weekend (W-SW inshore early)
- Fun tradeswells continue into early next week
- S pulses likely to kick off Thurs and continue into next weekend
- Another tradewind band looks to set-up late next week into the weekend with small, fun tradeswell medium term
Recap
Tiny surf to start yesterday with just a minor signal of S swell in the water at NENSW S exposed breaks (2ft or less) and a little uptick in SE swell by the end of the day under S’ly winds. Today is seeing more SE-E/SE tradeswell in the water to 2 occ. 3ft with morning SW breezes tending mod S-SE through the day.
Fun SE-E/SE trade swell perks up a notch today
This weekend (Jun 21-22)
No significant change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure across the interior of NSW will be moving across Southern NSW into the Tasman, with a trade fetch currently anchored by a small low sliding off to the SE over the weekend.
We’ll see light SW winds inshore early (tending W’ly from the Gold Coast to NENSW and more SW-S on the Sunshine Coast) which will swing SE at mod paces through the day.
Source of fun waves over the weekend
Similar winds Sun morning before winds swing more E/SE-E’ly or even E/NE’ly across the MNC.
Surf-wise we’ll see a small, fun trade swell hover in the 2-3ft range Sat, just a half notch stronger Sun (more consistent 3ft sets). Nothing incredible but fun waves both days.
Next week (Jun 23 onwards)
High pressure sits in the mid-Tasman at the start of next week, maintaining a useful, broad trade flow through the Coral Sea, with a weakening ridge and winds shifting E through NE. Compared to Wed’s notes that flow should stay light on Mon, as the approaching front/low has had timing pushed back. Light offshore breezes Mon with a’noon E to NE winds at light paces with fun E’ly trade swell should hold surf in the 2 occ. 3ft range.
N’lies freshen Tues (stronger south of the border) as the large low/front approaches, possibly tending N/NW or even NW late in the day. We’ll see another day of fun E’ly tending E/NE’ly swell to 2-3ft with winds favouring the beachies and backbeaches once it swings more N’ly.
By Wed the front will be pushing a fresh W/NW tending W’ly flow across NSW and up into SEQLD. Small E’ly swells to 2ft+ will ease through the day as those sources migrate out of the swell window.
We’ll see acute S swell in the water Thurs, at least in NENSW, under offshore W tending W/SW then SW- S/SE winds as a new high pressure ridge builds in the wake of the front. We’ll pencil in 2-3ft of surf for Thurs morning across NENSW, building to 3-5ft at S exposed breaks. Tiny surf in SEQLD with S magnets showing some 2ft surf by close of play.
By Friday S swells across NENSW will likely hold in the 3-4ft range (bigger at S swell magnets) with SEQLD S swell magnets and northern corners seeing some 2-3ft surf. Winds will swing SW through SE as the high pressure ridge continues.
Light SE-E winds and settled conditions next weekend as another large high moves over NSW and into the Tasman. Models suggest a small blend of S groundswell with some fun E’ly tradeswell in the water at this point.
Further ahead, models have been toying with low pressure development in the Coral Sea or Northern Tasman into the last week of June/first week of July. Nothing concrete or specific yet, but we’ll keep eyes on any instability and see how it’s shaping up on Mon.
Until then, have a great weekend!
Comments
When the word 'fun' is used you know it means small, in an optimistic way, much like 'buttery' meant glassy the new small is 'fun'...just sayin.
Fucking Mensa International over here
Definitely a downgrade from how it looked this time last week.
Personally glad because we've got no sand for anything else and the last thing we need is any significant size from the E.
yes exactly small swells are all we need as the banks are trying to return....sort of amazing how quick its changing atm ........
Looks bumpy this morning. Reckon it will straighten up again?
50/50- pressure gradients do ease ever so slightly o/night into the morning so we'll see the onshore flow proximate to the coast ease a notch into tomorrow.
Offshore here this morning but wobbly, janky 3ft of trade swell. Deffo surfable.
The point was fun this morning. Def better then it looked at first light, which I think kept the crowd light too.
Sand filling back into a nice little cove I like to surf.
Junk here.
pretty surfable mid stretch sc, not pumping but worth a paddle
Nice! Not great wind for up here unfortunately.
i checked the south end prior , and it was ordinary,
Swell just felt too short period this morning.
Fun here. Small but glassy and peaky with clear water, some good runners, lots of options and not too much of a crowd. Sets were every 5-10 minutes apart, so consistent waves coming through. Felt like a proper autumn / winter chilled and beautiful lil surf.
V. similar to yesterday- it's got an offshore on it but still jumbled up and janky.
I went to flick through this but ended up watching all of it. I hope it's interesting for you guys as it was for me. It's before my time but it really seemed like a better country. No fat arses, everyone out enjoying the sun and each other, etc etc. It's a form of life that endears me to the third world beach towns that we must have lost along the way.
Kick in size to 3ft to occ 4ft across the upper MNC yesterday afternoon, this morning looks smaller.
Copy that Craig.
Big a'noon tide really swallowed up the energy here yesterday a'noon.
Mostly a jumbled up mess at a point on SC this morning. Rain squalls at first light didn't help either. It's clearing up now, might be worth a look later