South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 4)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small blend of fun S/SE and E swells Sat (favouring NENSW for size) with NW winds early, NE in the a’noon
• Small leftovers Sun with N’ly winds
• Babyfood next week with light W/NW-NW winds tending to N-NE breezes
• Next S swell due later Fri into the weekend
• Still watching the tropics for latent signs of instability - nothing concrete

Recap

E’ly swells eased through yesterday into the 2-3ft range with a S swell building to 4-5ft across NENSW which pulsed up and down through the day and offered smaller 2ft surf in SEQLD due to the steep swell direction. Fresh W-SW winds eased through the day. Still some size to 3-5ft at S exposed breaks in NENSW today, smaller 2ft in SEQLD with morning offshore winds expected to ease right back and tend to variable breezes this a’noon. 

Still plenty of size in NENSW this morning

This weekend (Jul 5-6)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The complex, coastal low is now dissipating and drifting towards New Zealand while high pressure drifts NE to sit over sub-tropical NSW/SEQLD tomorrow before entering the Tasman on Sunday with a broad low pushing across the interior of Victoria and NSW behind it.

Winds look good for tomorrow morning with light W-W/NW breezes, tending NW then N-NE’ly in the a’noon at mod paces.

Swell will be on an easing trend tomorrow but lots of fun surf through the morning in the 3-4ft range with occ. 5ft sets at S swell magnets in NENSW, much smaller 2 occ. 3ft at the best SEQLD S swell magnets. By the a’noon we’ll be in the sub 3ft range, softening even further by close of play. S/SE swell will be dominant but there should be just enough leftover E’ly energy to generate some tasty a-frames at open beaches with a slight S’ly aspect. 

Not much leftover for Sun with 2ft surf at the swell magnets in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD, with size trending down to 1-2ft through the day. Early N-NW winds tend N-NE’ly then veer around NW again in the a’noon as the inland low approaches from the W. Expect tiny, wind affected surf at most beaches. 

Next week (July 7 onwards)

Still looking quiet for most of next week. Expect tiny surf Mon as the inland low enters the Tasman, driving a NW-W’ly tending W/SW flow across the region. 

Compared to Wed’s notes that return SW flow may generate a minor flush of local S swell into Tues a’noon across NENSW S swell magnets. Not much in it: 1-2ft max at S swell magnets but conditions should be clean as the low moves East and winds swing W through NW again in advance of another front sweeping up over the SE of the continent. 

Back to tiny through Tues a’noon and into Wed with a synoptic W’ly flow that will veer W/NW-NW at times. No swell to speak of through that period and into Thurs as well. We’re looking at tiny background swells from the E which may offer some surfable babyfood for logs and beginners.

By late Thurs we should see winds swing W’ly and freshen (remaining W/NW’ly in QLD) as a front and low enter the Tasman. Models are divergent on this wth EC suggesting a more robust system capable of generating quite sizey S swell later Fri into the weekend (4-6ft at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD). 

GFS has a more modest system progged with lesser size over the same period. 

We’ll flag it for for now and dial in size and timing when we come back Mon.

Further ahead, typical winter pattern with high pressure up over the continent and fronts and lows sweeping up from the southern ocean. At present most of these systems look to favour the southern states. We’ll certainly see S swells of some dimension going forwards with nothing major under current modelling. 

Still some indications of troughiness in the Coral Sea on the long range charts and while it would be unusual to see anything develop there as we move into the second of July, warm SST’s mean anything can happen.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon. Until then have a great weekend!