WSL Finals, Fiji
August 27th - September 4th

Forecast Wednesday 20/08/25:

Since Monday’s forecast a few things have changed in the waiting period. There’s been no fundamental shift as on the whole it’s not a great outlook for Fiji. But then again, Finals Day is just that - one day.

With the Southern Ocean firing its energy at targets further east, all the WSL needs is one stray volley to deviate and head up the Tasman Sea towards Fiji. Eight hours of wayward energy will do it.

The pre-comp swells mentioned on Monday are both on track to arrive, the first late Thursday (6ft+) and the second late Saturday (4-6ft). There’ll then be a slow taper over Sunday and Monday until the forecast flatlines for seven straight days - six of those being in the waiting period.

The cause of this is a large high pressure system that moves across the southern Tasman and New Zealand, angling storm systems to the south so the swell they produce heads away from the tropics - see next image.

Note swell under Australia heading towards the ice shelf while swell east of New Zealand heads across the South Pacific.

When the high moves east, a vigorous low pressure system is forecast to form off the NSW East Coast with a ridge feeding into a trough line in the Tasman. 

What does that mean..?

Good news for East Coast surfers - including Tassie East Coast - but not so the last remaining WSL surfers waiting in Fiji, as, once again, the energy in the Tasman will be directed away from them and towards Australia - see next image.

The swell heads the wrong way down the Tasman pipe - though East Coast surfers will benefit.

As is often the case, the Tasman Low will precede a vigorous frontal progression, which is the kind of talk Cloudbreak diehards like.

The first phase will see a low deepen over south-east Australia dragging polar air towards the mainland - possibly good news for the snow fields. However, as the system breaches the East Coast the westerly component will again see the swell angled away from Fiji.

Fortunately it’s a complex and multi-pronged system, and the elongations that drag cool air from far southern latitudes will also establish a well-aimed fetch up the Tasman. It’s not overly strong nor long-lasting, which’ll put a ceiling on size, but it forms right in Cloudbreak’s sweet spot.

Note the wind field south of Tasmania angled north-east towards Fiji.

At present, the swell is forecast to hit late on Monday 1st, building to a peak late on Tuesday 2nd, however, there are many contingencies attached to this one.

It’s at the very end of the forecast period so accuracy is questionable, and it forms on the back of a dynamic system. There’s a lot of weather between now and then, and small adjustments will have big bearings on the outcome.

Nevertheless in the absence of any other swell, this is the one we’ll be watching.

See you all on Friday.

Forecast Monday 18/08/25:

Over the last fortnight, Fiji has gone through a quiet spell with few waves of note on the south-west facing reefs. It's not for a lack of action in the Southern Ocean - Victoria and Tahiti, for instance, have been getting bombarded by Southern Ocean storms - but it's got everything to do with alignment.

Cloudbreak only has one real swell window and it opens up to the south-west, across the Coral Sea, Tasman Sea, and beyond that the Southern Ocean. Any storm that's going to create swell will have to be angling up the Tasman towards Fiji.

The current set up has Southern Ocean storms pushing swells north-east towards South Australia and Victoria, while the storms in Fiji's swell window have been pushing swell south-east towards the ice shelf - see the next image for an example.

Keen weather watchers would understand this as a classic Long Wave Trough scenario - click here for an explanation.

What this means is that the lead up to Finals Day will see few warm up waves on the reefs. There are, however, some exceptions.

Tomorrow a low centred near NZ's southern tip will deepen as it moves up the west coast, creating a south-southwest swell of moderate period. This will hit late on the 21st in the 6-8ft range.

That swell will be followed by a longer period swell off the storm shown in the image above. It's poorly aligned for Cloudbreak yet vigorous enough to push sideband energy up the Tasman where it'll deliver inconsistent 6ft waves hitting late on the 23rd.

Following that, the reefs will go quiet.

A series of fronts will pass across southern Australia, yet as they approach the Tasman they're all forecast to fall away, fading in strength and sending any available swell south-east, away from the tropics.

So quiet will Fiji be during this period that on the 27th - the first day of the waiting period - the predominant swell is forecast to be south-east. A short period trade-swell kicked up by the south-east trade-winds.

The first four days of the waiting period - from Wednesday 27th to Saturday 30th - will see very small waves. Only small, inconsistent long period energy will be able to escape the tractor beam that's pulling it away from Cloudbreak.

The back half of the waiting period is still too far out to have much trust in the forecast though there are hints of southerly energy developing in the Tasman. At this stage it looks slightly disjointed though we'll keep an eye on any changes.

See you all on Wednesday.