South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun tradeswells continue into Tues, easing Wed
• Freshening N’ly tending NW winds Tues, tending hard W’ly on Wed
• S swells build Thurs across NENSW, just showing in SEQLD by close of play with SW-S winds
• Still solid from the S Fri with morning W-SW winds tending S’ly
• Fun sized S swells Sat, easing into Sun
• Fun sized E swells over the weekend with SW-SE winds
• Long range E swells show Mon, peak Tues and ease Wed
• Long period S swell shows later Mon, persists Tues before easing
• Light winds next week, with small trade swells possible

Recap

E’ly tradeswells supplied some fun waves over the weekend with surf generally in the 3ft range with some embedded larger pulses. Light winds Sat morning tended SE across most of the region, with lighter variable breezes on the MNC. Sunday saw morning offshores extend a little longer before light SE winds in the a’noon, more variable on the MNC. Very similar today with sets around the 3ft mark, quality improving a notch as wavelength draws out and light winds. 

Bank not fully healed but still some fun at the Superbank.

This week (June 23-27)

High pressure is in the centre of the Tasman with a complex trough, front and low system approaching from south of the Bight. We’ll see pre-fontal N’lies freshen through the short term into tomorrow, tending NW and then hard W’ly on Wed. A retreating trade fetch gets supercharged by a developing trough and low in the South Pacific, reaching maximum intensity between Tongan and Tahitian longitudes. Despite the travel distance, we should see some quality long range E swell from this source, with some size from the south this week as the front and low traverse the Tasman.

In the short run we’ll see fresh winds from the N tomorrow, tending N/NW then NW late in the a’noon or o/night as the system approaches from the west. Primary swell will be small E’ly tradeswells from the slowly retreating fetch and that should hover in the 2-3ft range.

Winds shift hard W/NW then W on Wed as the frontal system sweeps across the SE of the continent with small E’ly swells to 2ft offering a rideable wave if you don’t mind hard offshore winds. A late kick in S swell is still highly unlikely across sub-tropical NSW from gales out of Bass Strait sending highly refracted S swell back to the coast but it’s unlikely to show much more than 2ft at S swell magnets across the MNC if anything does show. Thurs is a much better bet.

A rise in S swell is expected Thurs - mostly generated by gales sling-shotting up from adjacent to Tasmania into the Central Tasman and favouring NENSW. Expect undersized surf early with directional S swell in the 2ft range. The trend will be steadily up through the midday into a’noon period across NENSW building to 4-5ft at S facing beaches, bigger at S facing river bars and just showing across the QLD border late in the day to 2-3ft. Early winds will be W tending W/SW, shifting mod/fresh SW then S’ly through the a’noon so you’ll likely have to run away from max size to find a cleaner wave.

Plenty of size still in the water Fri, with mid period S swell in the 5-6ft range across NENSW S exposed breaks and smaller 3ft in SEQLD S facing beaches and Northern Corners. Winds will remain from the S as a large high moves over southern NSW with a morning W-W/SW breeze tending light/mod SW-S then clocking around mod S-S/SE as the high pressure ridge fills in. We’ll see some longer period S in the mix as well from a deeper fetch that passed through the lower extremities of the Tasman Wed into Thurs. This will likely be indistinguishable from the stronger signal but will add underlying energy to 3ft into the mix. Regional points should have plenty of fun waves Fri, sand permitting.

This weekend (Jun 28-29)

Winds will be on the improve over the weekend as a large, slow moving high drifts over NSW. Still some S’ly bias expected Sat (W-W/SW early) tending to light/mod S-SE breezes. 

We should see winds clock around more E/SE-E on Sun as the high pressure ridge matures, after morning land breezes. 

The Tasman Low sits off New Zealand through Fri so we should see a nice S/SE swell through Sat morning, in the 3-4ft range with a slow easing trend in the a’noon. Small E’ly swells will be in the water as well.

Small leftovers from the S-S/SE on Sun in the 2 occ. 3ft range with some more E’ly swell to 2-3ft filtering down from the retreating trade fetch offering fun waves albeit a bit slow. 

Next week (Jun 30 onwards)

Strong, slow moving high pressure moves into the Tasman next week, with a weak ridge along temperate NSW, stronger in the sub-tropics. We should see light/mod winds at least for the first half of the week with morning offshores and light SE tending E’ly breezes which will tend more NE as the week goes on. 

We’re looking at mostly long range swell sources during this period with some smaller tradeswell likely also in the mix.

E’ly swells from the South Pacific fetch look to build into the 3 occ. 4ft range Mon and extend into Tues with occ. 5ft sets before easing Wed with very long waits for sets.

From the south we’ll see some southerly groundswell from a slow moving polar low over the weekend with a following system supplying more long range, long period S’ly groundswell. We should see sets to 3-4ft  late Mon a’noon in NENSW, persisting into Tues with more S’ly pulses likely during the week. 

High pressure looks to remain stubborn in the Tasman next week although models are divergent as to the timing of a next series of fronts with GFS suggesting mid/late next week while EC holds high pressure right through next week with small E’ly swell filtering off the top of the high into temperate regions and another round of tradeswell for the sub-tropics. 

We’ll see how it’s shaping up on Wed.

Seeya then.