South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri June 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun sized S swells Sat, easing into Sun
• Fun sized E swells over the weekend with light SW-SE winds, building further Sun
• Long range E swells show Mon, peak Tues and ease Wed
• Dynamic situation now expected with deep trough spawning ECL or variant off the NSW Coast (MNC most likely)
• Large E’ly swells developing Tues, tending to large S/SE-SE swells through the week
• Offshore winds across most of the region, more S’ly from Coffs southwards- stay tuned to local winds!
• Easing swells Fri into the weekend with light winds
• Check back Mon for latest update, very dynamic situation

Recap

S swells built through yesterday after a tiny start as a Tasman Low moved offshore with size building from 1-2ft to 3-4ft at NENSW S exposed breaks, just showing to 2ft across the border under W’ly winds which shifted SW-S through the day.  A bit of lump and bump across S facing beaches this morning with offshore winds early before swinging S’ly. Size is in the 3-5ft range in NENSW at S facing breaks, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at S swell magnets and northern corners.

Strong S swell energy across NENSW this morning

This weekend (Jun 28-29)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A vast area of high pressure is across the south of the continent with a Tasman Low approaching New Zealand. Over the weekend the high will slowly slide over southern NSW with a weakening ridge along the sub-trapics. In the South Pacific a very broad tradewind fetch enhanced by a tropical low is now dissipating slowly after days of swell generation. 

We’ll still see some S’ly quarter winds tomorrow morning as the high pressure ridge eases and moves north. Winds from the W through W/SW in the morning will trend light/mod S’ly-SE’ly before laying down to light SE-E breezes in the a’noon. Surf-wise a very fun blend of S’ly and S/SE’ly swells to 3-4ft will trend down slowly through the a’noon.

Light winds most of the day Sun- W’ly through the morning trending to light a’noon SE-E breezes (likely under 10kts) offer really fun all day surf conditions. S/SE-SE swells will be in the leftover stages with 2occ. 3ft sets and softening further through the day, and we’ll see inconsistent swell trains filling in from the E offering 2-3ft waves with a chance of bigger sets more likely in the a’noon.

Next week (Jun 30 onwards)

OK, we’re starting to get more clarity on next week’s synoptic situation which is looking increasingly dynamic so expect further revisions over the weekend or on Mon. 

The gist of it is a coastal trough extending along the NSW Coast up into SEQLD and a tropical Coral Sea trough merging with an inland upper trough fed by tropical moisture from the Arafura Sea. A dominant high sits in the Bight as a slow moving anchor to these synoptic features. 

Through Mon both the coastal and Coral Sea troughs deepen with a strong and broad E/NE-NE infeed into a developing surface low (possibly some variant of ECL) late Mon o/night into Tues. Widespread E’ly to NE’ly gales look likely to develop through the Northern Tasman extending out towards the South Pacific and then S’ly to SE’ly gales along the SW quadrant of the low Wed, tending to strong S’ly to SW’ly winds north of the low axis. 

Winds feeding into developing ECL supply E'ly swells

From the low itself we are likely to see strong swells from across the compass beginning late Mon or Tues with areas south of the low axis in the line of severe weather (onshore gales and rain). North of the low will see clearer skies and offshore winds. 

That will be the main swell source next week.

Complicating that swell filled f/cast will be a significant long range E swell from the South Pacific fetch which looks to fill in Mon and hold into Tues.

Winds look tricky Mon as the trough deepens- under present modelling we’d expect light SW winds across the Sunshine Coast down to the Gold Coast and into NENSW. South of Yamba is likely to see SE-E winds Mon as the trough deepens. That wind forecast is highly fluid so keep tabs on local winds. E swells from the South Pacific look to supply 4ft sets Mon, along with developing shorter range E/NE swells to 3ft.

That signal continues into Tues at similar levels (3-4ft, occ. bigger set).

Conditions are likely to get radical through Tues as the ECL or variant bears down onto the MNC or Hunter region with winds from the SW tending fresh to strong SE. We’re likely to see increasing E swell from the developing low Tues, potentially up into the 6-8ft range across the MNC, grading smaller the further north you go.

Low sitting in Tasman supplies plenty of SE swell next week

Wed now looks very sizey with a full fledged low off the coast, E’ly gales feeding into it and L-XL surf developing along the NSW Central and Southern coastlines - more manageable the further north you go. 

Size and winds are still in play depending on where the low ends up being positioned but current modelling suggests S-SE’ly swells in the 8ft range (possibly bigger) on Wed across the MNC, grading smaller up into more northern regions and fresh SW-S winds, tending more W-SW into SEQLD. Elevated wave heights from the S-SE are likely to continue through Thurs, easing slowly into Fri.

Size settles into Fri depending on how quickly the low moves away from the coast. 

Confidence is now moderate-high for this event so batten down the hatches if you are on the south side of the low (MNC) and get your plans ready for some pumping days next week.

We’ll come back Mon and see how it’s shaping up.

Until then, have a great weekend!