There’s still some model divergence to deal with but some model runs show gales developing in close proximity to the NE Tas coast. Under this scenario we will be looking at a serious NE swell event, for late next week.
S’ly winds freshen through Thurs, tending SSE through the day as the low winds up and a large high moves towards Tasmania. Tasmania is right at the tail of the fetch (see below) but this should still be sufficient to whip up 2-3ft of S swell through the day.
Models are now starting to firm on quite a significant swell producing system as the low moves offshore and a strong high moving well south of the Bight offers a supporting pressure gradient squeeze on the Western flank of the low.
The pressure gradient is tightened as the low approaches with an increase in NE winds and swell expected through the end of the week. A small low exits the coast north of Coffs Harbour, which delays the offshore flow and maintains a N’ly wind across the region until a front brings an offshore change Fri. The return S’ly flow as another small low and front develop near Tasmania late Fri/Early Sat is expected to kick in over the weekend.
We have a typical looking Spring pattern with a weak high over the NSW interior and some flabby fronts passing South of Tasmania. An approaching trough series and inland low adds action mid-week as it tightens the pressure gradient with a more southerly located high, developing a N’ly fetch off the NSW Coast and another round of chunky NE windswell making landfall from mid week.
Still, no major change to the weekend f/cast. A complex low linked to multiple troughs and cold fronts is now approaching from SW of Tasmania. A main coastal trough linked to an Indian Ocean NW cloud band is clearing the area with a mostly NW flow across the weekend and a slowly easing NE swell on tap.
Typical Spring pattern with a slight La Niña/IOD twist unfolding at present. A large high is now moving into the Tasman, directing a N’ly flow along most of the Eastern seaboard. That flow intensifies in response to an approaching series of troughs and a complex low in the Bight generating some strong NE windswell for East Tas.
By Thurs we’ll be lining up another round of NE swell, with plenty of size expected as an approaching complex low tightens the pressure gradient with a Tasman high and generates a powerful NE fetch down the Western Tasman Sea.
Large surf early tomorrow, easing steadily through the weekend while tending more E/NE. Follow up S swell mid-week.
The high will move E with a N’ly flow rapidly developing as pressure gradients get tightened by an approaching front, complex low and trough line, generating solid NE windswell.