We've got an active week of surf ahead with plenty of swell and generally favourable winds, opening up plenty of options.
No great change to the weekend f/cast. A high is approaching Tasmania from the W, passing over the state tonight and setting up N’ly winds Sat before a trough brings a more variable SE-SW flow on Sunday.
We are seeing the “schizoid” pattern now develop whereby a monsoonal trough is splitting off a low pressure trough along the CQ coast, supported by a high pressure belt from the Bight to the Tasman Sea, while fronts and a parent low are entering the lower Tasman. That is seeing a regime where both S swells and a developing E’ly swell event are both in play across most of the Eastern Seaboard. S’ly swells are dominating the Southern Tasmanian coast, with a small wrap around into the North-East coast.
We’ve got an interesting looking pattern as we transition into Summer, with both active frontal systems transiting below the continent and a precursor monsoonal trough across the top end of Australia. A front pushing into the Tasman Sea and a deeper parent low bring S swell pulses this week while a trough of low pressure is expected to hive off the precursor monsoon trough mid week and sit in the Coral Sea later this week, bringing plenty of E swell for the sub-tropical Seaboard.
No great change to the weekend forecast. A high moving in from the Bight and a trough bring a SW flow tomorrow before winds set in from the N during the a’noon. No great size is expected with just marginal 1-2ft leftovers.
We’ve had the entrees for this S swell event and we’re now close to the main course with a deep low (977hPa) and gales tracking NE into the Tasman from behind Tasmania, with the largest swell trains already peaking across NETas.
Todays W’ly winds are the herald for a strong frontal progression which is currently unfolding at the gateway to the Tasman Sea. We have a front tied to a small low E of Tasmania with a much deeper parent low well to the south of Tasmania. There are multiple swell generating fetches associated with this complex low arrangement, with the deeper fetches off the parent low favouring NE Tas.
We’re past the peak of the current S swell event as the large low pressure system drifts towards New Zealand, weakening as it does so and a more mobile high pressure system moves north-east into the Tasman Sea, bringing N’ly winds.
The complex low system we mentioned Mon is now moving into position with a small low cell East of Tasmania and a deeper parent low tracking through the lower Tasman. The low east of Tasmania moves NE and joins other areas of troughy low pressure to form a large low pressure gyre which occupies most of the Tasman Sea through the latter part of this week.
A warm front has bought a W’ly change to temperate NSW, extending southwards to Tasmania. Through the early part of this week the low slips SE of Tas and a complex, troughy pattern with multiple low centres sits in the Tasman. This complex low pressure area eventually gets squeezed by an oncoming high generating fresh S’lies and which overlap with deeper S’ly fetches to create a series of S swells this week.