South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small background E swells this weekend
• Stronger S pulse filling in Sat with offshore winds tending S-SE
• S pulse extends into Sun- even rebuilding to bigger than Sat- with sizey surf at S facing beaches in NENSW, and offshore winds tending N’ly
• Easing swells into Mon
• Fun S swell pulse Tues into Wed, favouring NENSW for size
• More small S pulses medium term with offshore winds- typical winter pattern

Recap

Tiny surf through yesterday with ankle-knee high sets (small, background E swell) and offshore winds as a front pushed into the Tasman. We’ve got a small flush of S swell showing today, topping out around 2 occ.3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, with some background E swell offering a very inconsistent 2ft on the sets. W’ly winds this morning tending SW-S through the day.

S magnets in NENSW showing a small S swell today

This weekend (Jul 12-13)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure right up over the continent in typical winter positioning with a weak low in the Tasman and a much stronger frontal system poised to sweep up into the Tasman and join the existing low. We’ll see some nice S pulses over the weekend as multiple fetches operate on an active sea state. Favouring NENSW for size, with small background E swell padding out surf zones in SEQLD.

We should see a lovely building trend through tomorrow with initial size to 3-4ft at S facing beaches in NENSW building to 4-5ft with some 6ft sets possible at S facing river bars and smaller 2-3ft surf building in the a’noon at SEQLD S facing beaches. Offshore W’lies will tend SW then tend to light S’ly breezes.

Pumping Sun at NENSW S exposed breaks as a consolidated Tasman Low generates sizey S swell which should see more widespread 4-5ft surf, even building to 5-6ft at certain S exposed breaks as the low stalls, smaller 3ft in SEQLD at S magnets. Offshore W’ly winds tend S then veer more NW-N  late in the day as a front approaches from the W. 

Minor background E swell will hold a few inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft sets over the weekend, offering up good potential for a-frames at select swell magnets.

Next week (July 14 onwards)

Another week favouring S facing beaches in NENSW as fronts and lows sweep into the Tasman and high pressure remains up over the continent before tracking into sub-tropical waters.

No indications of any great size at this point.

A modest low and front sweeps up into the Tasman Mon. With pre-frontal NW winds then swinging W through SW before tailing off as light S-SE breezes.

Fun leftovers from the S Mon morning to 3-4ft in NENSW, easing with a mix of E and S swells in SEQLD showing 2 occ. 3ft surf across open beaches. We may see a late kick in new S swell on the MNC Mon.

Tues looks a better bet for new S swell with winds shifting back W’ly as another front pushes through with a small low expected to form off the south coast and move eastwards. Size to 3-4ft across NENSW S facing beaches, smaller 2ft in SEQLD is expected.

Models all suggest the low remains weak and broad and moves off to the east without doing much but there is a chance it could deepen and become a more significant swell source- we’ll keep eyes on it over the weekend report back Mon. 

Fun sized S swells Wed with surf dribbling away to tiny through Thurs/Fri.

We may see a stronger frontal intrusion into next weekend- models are mixed so confidence is low.

We’ll pencil in a bog standard S swell next weekend and adjust up or down as we get more clarity next week.

Nothing medium/long term to suggest this typical winter pattern will break so continue to expect lots of offshores and small/medium S swells.

Check back Mon for the latest and until then, have a great weekend!