Unfortunately this strong cold outbreak now looks to stall just too far West (behind the swell shadow of Tasmania) to really deliver any strong S swell to the East Coast, before weakening as it moves into the Tasman Sea swell window proper. We will see small S swell pulses.
Through Sun we’ll see increasing NE-N winds, along with a vey well aimed fetch of NE winds off the Gippsland to Bass Strait stretch whipping up NE windswell.
Further south a deep polar low and frontal system is generating large swells, with traces of long period S swell refracting back into Eastern Tas over the coming days. A weak, troughy pattern is NE of Tas now with a high pressure system expected to drift over the state through Fri.
The troughy pattern will see rapid fire wind changes across Eastern Tasmania this week.
No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure is now drifting SE towards the South Island with an approaching trough tightening the pressure gradient and leading to fresh N’ly winds for Eastern Tasmania .
Monday looks even juicier. An approaching trough of low pressure tightens pressure gradients and the fetch really winds up in the swell window.
Dicey winds and weak windswells this week, a bit stronger on the weekend.
Aim for surf tomorrow out of the wind.
Ex TC Gabrielle (SS) is now on the eastern side of the North Island with swell generating winds also in the swell shadow of the North Island. A weak (1017HPa) high is covering most of the Tasman Sea with an active monsoon trough still supplying plenty of tropical moisture and instability across Northern Australia. Remnants of a trough near the South Island have set up a weak, off-axis fetch back into the Tasman Sea while transient N’ly fetches off the NSW South Coast supply some small, weak NE windswell. It all spells a much quieter period of surf ahead.
Ex TC Gabrielle is still the main game as far as swell production goes. The former cyclone is now a large sub-tropical storm (SS) slow moving near the top of the North Island. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a broad but short fetch of gales to severe gales extending off the west coast of the North Island, slightly off axis for the East Coast but maintaining a strong swell regime in the short term.