Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized S'ly groundswell building later Fri, peaking Sat AM with W/NW tending NE winds
• Front brings S pulse Tues PM with fresh SW winds
• More S swell pulses Wed, easing Thurs as low forms in Tasman
• More S swell medium term

Recap

Chunky S swell to 3-4ft yesterday under W/NW winds with size easing then rebuilding today as S swell fills in under variable tending W’ly winds.

This weekend and next week (May 30 - Jun 8)

No change to the  weekend f/cast. We’ve currently got a deep polar low with two strong embedded fronts tracking NE into the lower Tasman. High pressure moves up over NSW with light winds Sat, tending NW Sun as high pressure moves to the NE and a front passes to the south. 

Surf-wise long period S swell peaks tomorrow with sets to 5-6ft at S facing beaches and clean conditions under light/variable breezes all day. By the a’noon we should see an easing trend.

Sunday sees easing conditions as S swell wanes with sets to 2-3ft early, becoming smaller 1-2ft through the day. Winds shift NW-W/NW and freshen through the day so get in early for best conditions.

Into next week and we’ll see tiny surf through Mon.

Tues is a different story. We’ll see a front enter the Tasman, and merge with the weak surface low, with a long S-SW fetch developing through the Tasman and proximate to the Tasmanian Coast(see below). Models are still offering divergent takes on the evolution of the system with GFS now much more bullish than EC. Regardless, we’ll see W’ly winds swing fresh SW through S/SW later Tues, accompanied by a steep rise in new S swell building to 5-6ft in the a’noon.

Source of building S swells Tues

Plenty of size into Wed, although with such model divergence it’s hard to have confidence in the trend. GFS suggests a steady size as a complex low moves through the Tasman, with EC suggesting a smaller peak and faster easing trend through Wed as high pressure moves over the state. We should see at least 3-4ft of S swell Wed morning, holding through the day and easing Thurs. 

Medium term looks like a continuation of swells from the S with more frontal intrusion into the Tasman backed by a strong high moving through the Bight.

Check back Mon for the latest and until then, have a great weekend!