Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 2nd June)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Front brings S pulse Tues  with fresh SW winds
• Sizey S swell continues Wed with fresh SW winds
• Easing winds Thurs with better quality S swell
• Fun S-S/SE swell Fri with offshore winds
• Small NE windswell possible this weekend with fresh NW winds
• Not much next week- small E/SE swell possible- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Plenty of S swell over the weekend with size to 4-5ft on Sat under W/SW winds, easing into the 3-4ft range yesterday under W’ly winds and easing further to 2ft at S facing beaches today, tiny elsewhere. 

This week and next week (Jun2 - Jun 15)

A trough of low pressure fed by moist Coral Sea air is currently moving south off the SEQLD/NENSW coast, forming a small surface low later today into tomorrow. A front moving into the Tasman Tues then interacts with the low, causing a robust deepening of the low and a complex pattern as a trough spins off the low and moves north while a further trough of low pressure forms off to the south. Backed by a high to the south of the Bight we’ll see plenty of size from the south from this pattern short term, with conditions improving into the weekend as high pressure moves up over NSW.

Frontal activity brings plenty of S swell short term and through the week

In the short run we’ll see the front tomorrow bring fresh/strong SW tending S/SW winds and building short range S swells from 2-3ft up to 4-5ft in the a’noon although it will be raw and ragged and blown out at S facing beaches.

Similar size into Wed morning with fresh SW winds continuing. We’ll see mostly short range S swell to 5-6ft with some better quality S/SE swell buried in the mix to 2ft. Winds will remain fresh to strong SW through the day, tending S/SW in the a’noon.

Conditions should settle through Thurs as high pressure moves to the north of the state but remain from the S. 

Light SW winds early tend S-SE through the day at light paces. Wave quality improves with mid period S and longer period S/SE swell to 3-4ft.

By Fri we’ll see winds shift N-NW as high pressure sits to the North and in the southern tasman. Another day of quality S/SE swell from a fetch below the South Island with size to 3ft, easing through the day.

Into the weekend and we should see fresh and gusty NW winds develop. We may see some small NE windswell develop both Sat and Sun but confidence is low on specifics. Winds feeding into an approaching low may generate small NE windswell to 2ft later Sat, potentially again on Sun as the low stalls.

Next week now looks quiet to start. 

Low pressure stalls near Tasmania with easing surf through Mon.

The low then weakens and enters the Tasman, with weak winds on the Southern Flank not producing much in the way of surf at all and a light wind flow continuing through the week.

We may see some small E/SE swell develop off the southern flank of the low next week although models are mixed with the European model suggesting later in the week (Thurs) and GFS suggesting it Mon or Tues.

Let’s see how it shapes up through the week. 

Seeya Wed for the latest updates.