A wintry pattern is on offer this week, with a stack of intense frontal activity impacting Tasmania and a deep, complex semi-stalled Polar low providing refracted S swell pulses through the week.
A better angled fetch associated with a frontal fetch moving NE into the Tasman later Mon into Tuesday sees surf build into the 3ft range at S exposed spots with early SW winds from the front turning WNW as it passes by.
A large, twin centred high is now straddling Tasmania, bringing a regime of settled conditions, which will be brought to an end later this week as N’lies freshen along the Western flank of the high, generating useful NE windswell.
High pressure straddling Tasmania brings a weak and variable wind flow through the week up to Fri, with tiny surf expected and settled conditions.
This deep S’ly fetch is expected to see wave heights build through Mon but conditions aren’t expected to be great with a strong high pressure ridge building in the wake of the front and mod S to SE winds expected.
This front is expected to be a swell producer for the NE Coast with a deep S’ly fetch tied to a complex low tracking NE through Mon and bringing a steep increase in new S swell through the day. Unfortunately this will come with S’ly through SSE’ly winds so you’ll need to find somewhere out of the wind to surf and sacrifice some size.
This swell will be generated by a deep low centred around 50S which is expected to track south of Tasmania later tonight, with a slight NE wobble as it transits the Tasman on Tuesday. This is a powerful storm, with storm force winds and a large area of seas in excess of 30ft.
Models have rejigged the frontal progression into the Lower Tasman next week with a less favourably aligned storm track for NETas.
Initially, winds on the Western (East Coast Aus) side of the Tasman begin to freshen from the North and we’ll see that through the rest of the working week as the high pressure ridge gets squeezed by an approaching trough and front.
N’ly winds then freshen again Thursday with a much stronger fetch adjacent to the NSW coastline and extending down to the Tasmanian coast brings a stronger flush of NE windswell.