Eastern Tasmanian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jul 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Stronger S pulse Sat, easing through the day with W/SW tending NW winds
• N’ly windswell wrap likely Sun with fresh NW winds
• Small S pulse likely Mon
• More small S pulses likely into next week with W-NW winds

Recap

Surf was tiny through the morning yesterday before E swell built in the a’noon, although below f/cast expectations with only sets to 2ft. Still some 2ft sets around this morning under W’ly winds that have veered NW at times.

This weekend and next week (July11- July 18)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure right up over the continent in typical winter positioning with a weak low in the Tasman and a much stronger frontal system poised to sweep up into the Tasman and join the existing low. We’ll see a nice S pulses over the weekend as multiple fetches operate on an active sea state. 

Winds will shift W-W/SW into tomorrow before veering NW again. We’ll see a nice pulse of S swell to 2-3ft tomorrow, easing in the a’noon.

By Sun winds will be freshening from the NW as a new front/low approaches. We’ll see easing S swell to 2ft early, with some NE windswell wrap to 2-3ft in the a’noon.

Another week favouring S facing beaches as fronts and lows sweep into the Tasman and high pressure remains up over the continent before tracking into sub-tropical waters.

No indications of any great size at this point.

A modest low and front sweeps up into the Tasman Mon. With pre-frontal NW winds then swinging W through SW before tailing off as light S-SE breezes.

Small  S swell to 2-3ft is expected.

Tues sees winds shifting back W’ly as another front pushes through with a small low expected to form off the south coast NSW and move eastwards. Size to 2ft in the morning eases through the day. 

Models all suggest the low remains weak and broad and moves off to the east without doing much but there is a chance it could deepen and become a more significant swell source- we’ll keep eyes on it over the weekend report back Mon. 

Easing swells Wed with surf dribbling away to tiny through Thurs/Fri although we may see some small N’ly windswell wrap from gale force NW winds out of Bass Strait.

We may see a stronger frontal intrusion into next weekend- models are mixed so confidence is low.

We’ll pencil in a bog standard S swell Fri into  weekend and adjust up or down as we get more clarity next week.

Nothing medium/long term to suggest this typical winter pattern will break so continue to expect lots of W to NW winds and small/medium S swells.

Check back Mon for the latest and until then, have a great weekend!